Irish House Prices to Fall 60% From Peak, Jim Power Says

[verbatim]

Irish House Prices to Fall 60% From Peak, Jim Power Says

By Fergal O’Brien
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) – Irish house prices will probably
fall as much as 60 percent from their peak in early 2007, said
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, the investment and
insurance company, in Dublin.
Prices have probably fallen by about 45 percent already and
the real estate market is likely to bottom out in the second
half of 2010, he said at an event in Dublin today.

F’ing crackpot.

[mr_anderson]

Linky link link ?

Man predicts market to fall 60% after it has already fallen 45%.
What was he predicting in 2006 ?

[ewd3]

@verbatim

Irish House Prices to Fall 60% From Peak, Jim Power Says

By Fergal O’Brien
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) – Irish house prices will probably
fall as much as 60 percent from their peak in early 2007, said
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, the investment and
insurance company, in Dublin.
Prices have probably fallen by about 45 percent already and
the real estate market is likely to bottom out in the second
half of 2010, he said at an event in Dublin today.

F’ing crackpot.

only 60%?

phew
for a minute there I thought it was a crash…

[flash]

Don’t worry, we’ll have a soft landing.

[What_Goes_Up]

@verbatim

Irish House Prices to Fall 60% From Peak, Jim Power Says

By Fergal O’Brien
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) – Irish house prices will probably
fall as much as 60 percent from their peak in early 2007, said
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, the investment and
insurance company, in Dublin.
Prices have probably fallen by about 45 percent already and
the real estate market is likely to bottom out in the second
half of 2010, he said at an event in Dublin today.

F’ing crackpot.

But, but, but… NAMA… 10% over 10 years… Ronan’s sums…

BRIAN!.. BRIAN!.. C’MERE YA FECKIN’ GOBSHITE!

[verbatim]

Sorry, no link. Copied and pasted from Bloomberg.

[spqr64]

Remember this sound … thump…thump…thump… crash, this will be the property market hitting the bottom and going through the glass floor just before it hits Power on the head.

[grumpy]

@mr_anderson

Linky link link ?

Man predicts market to fall 60% after it has already fallen 45%.
What was he predicting in 2006 ?

Feb 07

The Irish housing market is still vibrant. There is still nothing in the overall data
to suggest that the market is starting to experience a hard landing, and indeed
the gradual slowdown that is occurring in the overall market is to be welcomed
and does suggest a stronger degree of sustainability in the longer-term.
In 2007, house completions are likely to ease back towards 85,000 units, while
national average house prices are likely to increase by around 5%, less than
half the rate of house price inflation seen in 2006.
The death of the Irish housing market is grossly exaggerated and while 2006
should represent the peak of the housing cycle in terms of price inflation and
completions, the market looks set to remain solidly based in the medium-term.

friendsfirst.ie/artman/uploa … feb_07.pdf

[Ivor_Lot]

Nice find grumpy!

[Sloopy]

I’ve been keeping a hawkeye on D6w & D14 and that 45% figure seems very large to me. On top of that he’s predicting a fall of up to 27% from current values by Autumn of next year? That’s a big call.

The phrase ‘si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses’ springs to mind.

[spqr64]

I think he is shy of the mark (not by the timeframe you mention next autumn) but the fact is the current state we are in along with banks growing reluctance to lend and increased taxes will even reduce the exuberance of someone on a guaranteed salary to dip a toe in the market.
Some markets are more sticky than others but that is only a matter of time and bad government to push these down further.

[verbatim]

A strange mixture of quotes…

Ireland Won’t Recover Until 2011, Danske Bank Says (Update1)

By Niklas Magnusson and Colm Heatley
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) – Ireland’s economy won’t recover
until 2011, said Peter Straarup, chief executive officer at
Danske Bank A/S, which in 2005 acquired Northern Bank in
Northern Ireland and National Irish Bank in the Republic of
Ireland.
“Ireland is a depressing place to be, with a contraction of
between 8 and 10 percent this year and still negative growth of
1 to 2 percent next year,” Straarup said in an interview.
Ireland, hit by a property crash and the global financial
crisis, is mired in its worst-ever recession. House prices have
probably dropped 45 percent since their early 2007 peak and will
fall another 15 percent next year, Jim Power, chief economist at
Friends First, the investment and insurance company, said today.
While Danske Bank hasn’t yet repossessed any Irish assets,
“that could be a possibility,” Straarup said. Before the crash
Irish mortgage loans at the bank represented less than 50
percent of the value of the properties they were used to buy, he
said. “I really don’t think we’ll have high losses on the
personal customer side.”
Around 150,000 “saleable” houses in Ireland are unsold,
with another 50,000 houses “unsaleable,” Power said today at
an event in Dublin. Power forecasts that house prices will
“bottom out” in the second half of 2010.
“We have no other plans than to work through this in
Ireland,” Straarup said.

[Larry]

Grumpy - post of the week. Great catch. Mr. Power’s statement is so perfectly wrong that one of us lot could have made it up.

And look at the language: “gradual slowdown” = soft landing, “solidly based [market] in the medium-term” = the fundamentals are sound, “sustainability” = new paradigm. Those are three of the key totems of bubblenomics right there, being trotted out by one of the country’s most high profile economists…how bloody embarrassing is it that his analysis was no more sophisticated than that of all those barstool property magnets-come-jackasses? Gobshite, gobshite, gobshite.

[fedorov]

use this friendsfirst.ie/feedback.shtml

jim powers this week:

Irish house prices will probably
fall as much as 60 percent from their peak in early 2007, said
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, the investment and
insurance company, in Dublin.

jim powers 2007:
The Irish housing market is still vibrant. There is still nothing in the overall data
to suggest that the market is starting to experience a hard landing, and indeed
the gradual slowdown that is occurring in the overall market is to be welcomed

friendsfirst.ie/artman/uploa … feb_07.pdf

friends first = morons first

[Coles2]

What a genius. He’s learned the art of economic predictions… ‘the trend is your friend’.

He wasn’t so smart 18 months ago when he said this…

“Demand for agricultural land has nothing to do with the fortunes of agriculture. It’s a scarce commodity and it’s the classic supply/demand situation. Owning land has become a status symbol in this country,” Mr Power claimed. He predicted that land prices would continue to rise; pointing out that the ongoing turmoil in the stock markets and housing markets added credence to the view that land was a relatively safe investment.

“I would not borrow to buy land because you simply would not get the return, but if I had the money I would buy land,” the economist admitted.

Link to Indo, April 08.

Land has since proved to be the most disastrous investment since then.

[flash]

“I would not borrow to buy land because you simply would not get the return, but if I had the money I would buy land,” the economist admitted.

Total Powerballs.

[mr_anderson]

@flash

Total Powerballs.

Have we found Jim a new name … alongside comical austin and desperate dan ?

[SeanD]

friendsfirst.ie/artman/uploads/economic_outlook.pdf for those of you looking for the link.

[daltonr]

This attempt to wrap up the market in one figure tells us nothing.
We already have some properties down more than 60%

The crash that people including Power predicted would never happen has happened.

So go away Jim. Fortune Cookies are more reliable and have the benefit of being a delicious cookie.

-Rd

[Bostonorberlin]

Jim Power has a brain fart whilst taking a dump in Friends Provident HQ.
“House Prices in 2009 will drop”
lying scum PR company brought into the loop,
they contact useless ignorant journalist to arrange press conference,
media print and an RTE muppett is sent along
banner headline Friends Provident Top economist warns of house drops (dated Nov 09)
Friends Provident take a 1/6th page add in IT
Jim has dinner that evening with Financial regulator and Govt ministers
Garda drivers wait on overtime outside Greens restauraunt
everyone shoots off home, pocketing receipts and noting the time on the clock for their OT sheet that week.

tax payer picks up the tab for the consultants for the dinner, gardas overtime, jims top quality advice, dail commission to review Jims advice , the disastrous consequences of taking Jims advice circa 2007 and also the hefty tip left for the cute eastern european waitress who delivered the sweets trolley.

thats how the shit works folks… wise up .