Irish houses most overvalued - IMF

IMF… Unbelievable.

Just the shot in the arm we needed.

Well stone me. There’s a shock.

So, Ireland really IS different!!!

Seriously, how did our housing market come to this? We are a small country, a democracy with an open economy and a well-educated workforce - at least that’s the theory. You’d expect us to be reasonably smart about creating a decent lifestyle and quality of life here.

How much grief has exhorbiant house prices caused to people? How many of us waste years of our lives commuting and living the “bed to work to bed” lifestyle? Housing is a quality of life issue, one we have failed to look at let alone address. Vested Interests have dominated the debate.

We’re in a right mess now - ask any laid off construction worker. You would think that there’d be lessons to be learned, a new way of organising and planning housing etc etc…but of course that isn’t happening.

I’m not sure what my point is but you get the idea…apologies if I sound a bit sick and tired…

this one has been one of my biggest questions. i’ve seen people with all kind of degrees who could have easily worked it out that the house they were about to buy was outrageously overpriced and yet they blindly signed on the line.
anytime i challenged a lemming they would usually say “it’s the right time for me”. there’s the answer but it still makes me wonder whether their qualification is useless without basic common sense.
if someone cares that little about their future wealth, then i shudder to think what effort they put into their work; this country is in a for an education in values, i don’t think there will be a country music revival this time.

They don’t teach common sense in school. Thankfully lots of knowledge economy jobs don’t require it.

So what about Japan, the US, Spain, Sweden, Britain…it really isn’t that surprising that we aren’t immune to a property bubble because we are small, educated and emocratic.

30% fall from here for the IMF - I see higher - 50%ish

Expect to see much spinning, we have had 25% of the drop already, near the bottom etc…

If you want some really scary bedtime reading then just read what they say about Ireland in Chapter 1 of their global report, just do not expect to actually sleep afterwards. … pdf/c1.pdf

out of interest, how do they measure the “value” of Irish houses presently?
Presume they use the ESRI index? Pah!
What’s the point in any ratio if it’s based on complete nonsense?

I think we’re still at the 10-15% drops level.

I reckon there is still lots of denial out there.

I couldn’t agree more. When I saw that IMF analysis I felt like this :blush: on behalf of Ireland. Someone said on another thread (in the context of the children’s allowance) that kids are good for the country. What will the next generation think about us and the sorry mess we are leaving them? Hopefully this nation will now take a long hard look at itself in the mirror and think about what it stands for.

Its all in the report I linked above.

Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development; and IMF staff calculations.


Maths and stats isn’t my strong point (failed miserably at Maths Leaving), so if anyone here thinks my calculations are up the creek, don’t be afraid to say so. But, if the IMF say houses prices were ivervalued by 30pc in 2007, that means they need to fall by about 23pc to be back in line? Is that correct? Or is it 30pc? Anyway, if prices have fallen by about 20pc this year (again I’m just going by what’s posted here for that info), that means they have just a few more per cent to go to be back in line with their long-term? I’m holding off from buying a house until prices are in line with their long-term trend. Can any bright spark calculate when thats likely to be at their present rate of fall? Its way beyond me. I realise that they might overshoot and go even lower short-term. But, as I’m buying and not planning to move for 30 years, I dont mind if the price falls further in the short-term. I’ll be hapy once I know the price is in line with its long-term trend and not over-valued on a historical calculation. So, when’s that likely to be?

Yeah its from the end of 07 so you could say there is 23-24% left by their measure. But that was also based on the ‘fundamentals’ as of the end of 07 and the ‘fundis’ have been deteriorating virtually daily since plus markets invariably overcorrect to an extent. So all in all on the IMF measure you are still looking at 30%+.

Yup, KN, I was just thinking along those lines - it’s based on the economy expanding somewhat in 2008, on average wages increasing, on tax remaining the same. Of course it’s probably also based on a certain mortgage interest rate!

is it an average though

for example house in leitrim could lose 100% of its value
but house in dublin 2, dublin 4, dublin 18 loses 30%

statistics can mean anything depending on what you want to measure

30% isn’t that big a fall in my book but it depends on what you are measuring against
house prices went up close to that from 2004-2007

I dont understand some of the figures. How much have house prices actually fallen since the imf survey? Does anyone know for sure? is there a reliable measure published anywhere? I know esri say its about 10pc, but most people seem to think its 20pc. if esri are correct, they still have a lot to fall. if the 20pc figure is correct, they must have a lot less to fall. How can the non-expert intending to buy a house know? I suppose i could ask an estate agent, but would they give me an honest answer?