Irish Moral Hazard Organisation (IMHO)


#301

Moral Hazard Ireland @moralhazardirl · 8m 8 minutes ago
@JillKerby @PatKennyNT AIB themselves. Short version here: oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/ … endocument

Moral Hazard Ireland @moralhazardirl · 12m 12 minutes ago
@PatKennyNT 2,000+ AIB customers have deposits significantly in excess of their arrears #ntfm
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Moral Hazard Ireland @moralhazardirl · 17m 17 minutes ago
@PatKennyNT David Duffy: 20% of AIB #mortgagearrears are strategic defaulters irishmoralhazardorganisation.com … efaulters/ … … #ntfm

Moral Hazard Ireland @moralhazardirl · 2h 2 hours ago
@BreakfastNT Does `@DonnellyStephen think that SVRs are high because arrears so high and it is so difficult to repossess In Ireland?


#302

Good work IMHO…Pat must have missed that interesting stat about arrears v’s deposits held!!!


#303

{Mod Snip - off topic}

Fair enough.

But who are these bad mythical creatures, THE BANKS ?
Are they the shareholders (those that still have some) who lost most of the value of their shares ?
Are they the bank employees ?
Are they the bank management and directors (and the ones who primarily caused the mess have wandered off into the sunset with pensions and golden parachutes) ?
Are they the people/organisations that have lent money to the banks ?

Or are they the other bank customers (borrowers and depositors) and the people propping up the banks (through providing recapitalisation funds and buying crud loans) i.e. the taxpayers of this state ?
Make the banks cover delinquent mortgagors all the while leaving them with the asset, and the only ones that covers that cost will those mentioned in the last sentence above.

Sooner or later they will have to crystallise their losses.
What has been happening has been kicking the proverbial can down the road in the hope that prices go back to bubble levels.
Price have indeed gone back up because there isn’t a proper functioning market.

Even if with the banks waiting for prices to increase there still was not any proper movement on repossessions of hopeless cases where people just weren’t paying anything of making any effort with banks.
Some cases should have been dealt with years ago.

Granted it was politically unpalatable and the government have done everythign to try prevent it with moratoriums and such.


#304

The way to swing people against anything is to show how they will be affected negatively in their pockets.

And for once our begrudgery might actually work for the greater good.


#305

This came up on here before. Can’t remember the context (wasn’t specifically AIB think it was all banks). I have often asked why the “journalist” (letting Casino Owner David hall spout shite about there being no strategic default) never brings up this issue, and others

How many have equity? This could be used as a deposit to buy another (smallar in a less salubrious area) house. The kind of choices those renting are being made to make


#306

Exactly. If someone could calculate how much the Standard Variable Rate was impacted by strategic defaulters that would give people something to think about.


#307

AIB just told Oireachtas Committee 60% of mortgage holders in arrears over 720 days are making no payments at all.

Astonishing.


#308

I don’t think that will be making Charlie Weston’s column or Ivan Yeates’ NT Breakfast show tomorrow XX


#309

That is so fucked up it is beyond comprehension.


#310

Squatting!


#311

How many mortgages do they have that are more than 720 days in arrears? 5000 ?

Any split on BTL or PPR?


#312

Not sure, but I think it may be in the transcript.

Overall there are 38000 PPRs 720 days in arrears, its reasonable to expect that AIB have at least 10000 of them (I believe they have the largest loan book of the banks)

I think its also probable that the 60% is reflected across the banks.

i.e 22800 PPRs who have made no payments in over 720 days.


#313

I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that. Other banks my be much tougher (relatively speaking) than AIB

AIB are bezzie mates with Hall’s IMHO are they not


#314

Since AIB took over EBS as well, they probably have a good chunk of the market, it might be 30% as IMHO has noted.


#315

I think it is fairly reasonable to assume 60% across the board. IBRC has a chunky enough PDH loan book (former Nationwide book) and it has an astronomical default rate. Then there is the subprime lenders etc who also have particularly high instances of default (albeit with the latter taking an aggressive stance)


#316

Here’s hoping that it’s a game-changer.

“Listen, you morons giving out to Joe Duffy about repossessions meaning people are getting kicked out of their homes… Do you pay rent? Do you pay your mortgage? These cretins are getting away with paying NOTHING”.

I’d have thought that’s a fairly easy message. Hopefully this news will get it into the public eye.


#317

That will absolutely NOT be the message presented by the media. The message will be that desperate homeowners who cannot even afford to pay any of their mortgage are being harassed by banks.

People find it hard to equate words like ‘arrears’ with ‘free accommodation’. As a result, the narrative is always anti-reposession. David Hall will be everywhere in the coming days.


#318

Another reason why it is a good idea for the Real IMHO to provide some counterbalance. Now is an opportune time. You may never get a better one


#319

Reuters have reported the numbers, without mentioning the 60% - calculating a % of total:

reuters.com/article/2015/04/ … C320150422


#320

Hi, I am trying to chart some data from an excel spreadsheet, but not my forte, anyone who could give me a hand?