Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#1

For those who are in any doubt as to the severity of the property crash we are in the middle of, here are some graphs I put together based on recently updated Irish Banking Federation mortgage draw-down data:
https://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2497/alls.jpeg

https://img97.imageshack.us/img97/743/totals.jpg

https://img199.imageshack.us/img199/519/49386252.jpg

https://img97.imageshack.us/img97/4155/69159013.jpg

https://img509.imageshack.us/img509/212/31355996.jpg

https://img199.imageshack.us/img199/338/89208146.jpg


#2

Based on the above graph the top of the market in terms of volume of transactions and value the top of the property market in Ireland occurred in Spring 2006. The developers may have realised this at the time and hence the last surge in employment in construction and also immigration during 2007 as they rushed to complete existing projects. I believe the number of planning applications also started to fall in 2006, so people were beginning to realise the game was up by then and daftwatch shows an increasing supply of property for sale from then on, does anyone know what the trend had been before that?


#3

Mortgage lending was €40bn a year or so in 2005 and 2006 , €30bn in annual liquidity injections have been removed from a €150bn economy since that time …which rather is a lot . Interior decoration ain’t what it was…just ask Izzy .

Most of this decline has already occured you will be glad to hear meaning there will be a bettering in the pace of worsening from now on .

It will not uptick until 2012 and then only anorexicly.

( incorrect assertion removed)


#4

Au contraire!
This is exactly what happened in the UK and we have since been hit with tsunami of ‘house prices rising’ stories.
So volumes have collapsed (rarely mentioned) but the ‘average price’ has risen as a result.

I would expect a full throathed media campaign to show house prices ‘rising’ again in the next 6 months.
This aint over by a long shot Pinsters.


#5

What will it be like when the government removes an extra €25 bn or so?


#6

Remember that scene in Trainspotting…I just need one more ******* hit!


#7

Are you pushing your view of the timing of the bottom out a bit?


#8

New Irish mortgages issued down 56.4% in Q3 2009; AIB says it financed 40% of all residential property transactions in quarter -> finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 8422.shtml


#9

Actually Grumpy I can’t find that assertion so you are most probably right ( post edited) , I may have done so elsewhere :smiley:

I predicted 2008 @ €25bn ( in 2007) here

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5215&hilit=+budget+2008

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=16420&hilit=how+hard+is+it

I revisited that late 2008 in a year when when the actual outturn was c.€23Bn and predicted max €12bn in 2009 it looks like €8.5bn will be the final number.

The good news 8) is that 2010 is the FIRST year in a long time where I am not predicting a halving or so in Mortgage lending .

I now predict that Mortgage Lending in Ireland in 2010 will be around €6bn , in total .


#10

I remember reading it and I didn’t wade through the AAM thread, so it must have been on here. Some time about the collapse of Northern Rock, as I recall.

edit: though as I recall aswell it was for 2009 that you were calling it. Still, correct in the trend, correct in the effect…


#11

I can’t prove it Yogan , I can only prove I predicted the following years trends reasonably accurately in advance …which is more than all the dept of Finance and Central bank could manage in fairness . I did hint at the 2009 out turn as early as April 2008 here where I pointed out the 2009 mortgage market ( less remortgages was likely to be sub €10bn . It will be sub €10bn including remortgages .


#12

Latest IBF/PWC report (Q4 '10):

ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St … .sflb.ashx

Mortgage volume down 43.5% Q4 '10 compared to Q4 '09, and down 22% compared to Q3 '2010. 40% fewer for all of 2010 compared to all of 2009.

FTB and movers down just over 20%, while buy-to-let down over 50%.


#13

thanks ps
Quick drive by…

Known as dumb money to me anyway…

devil is in the detail…

238
Falling off a cliff seems appropriate here…
When you are that low be prepared for some higher figures, probability favours it does not but heh, stranger things have happened.


#14

I read that as fell of a cliff, rather than falling…

Until more data points are provided within 2009 and onwards


#15

irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin … 79999.html

Just who do these banks think they are, don’t they know that these FTB’s are entitled to get a mortgage.

“affordability is at an all-time low”, no, it was at an all time low in 2006, but it’s getting better :wink:


#16

Agree Saibhreas shoudl read fell of a cliff… lol…

But heh I suippose it can stop @ 0…

Good job it cant go negative…lol…


#17

Link to the numbers:
ibf.ie/gns/publications/rese … arket.aspx

Via NamaWineLake:
namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/ … n-q4-2010/


#18

That graph really says it all.

Is it too simple of me to believe house prices would have followed the same pattern (were it not for governmental interference in the market e.g. NAMA, rent allowance etc) ?


#19

amazing graph. Are figures available back to the 90’s??


#20

Well, how else are people funding their house purchases?

What would the banks books look like if night followed day?
In 2006 they borrowed €40Billion short to lend long@AAA rates. And now?
In 2010 they lent €6 Billion into the same market - what happens when you take 85% of the funding away?

Here’s StatusIreland’s House Price Graph for the same period:
statusireland.com/statistics … -1996.html

Bernie Madoff runs our banks.
Bernie Madoff’s in charge of our Central Bank.
Bernie Madoff’s our Minister of Finance.
Bernie Madoff 's bailing us out.