Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#422

Irish mortgage approvals at 36 year low

finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 8663.shtml

who to believe?


#423

Mortgage lending falls as demand remains weak
independent.ie/business/pers … 52505.html

Charley just had to get the last bit in…like a dog with a bone


#424

I hereby grant mortgage approval to every pinster for €1 billion each.

There.
I have singlehandedly approved more money than the entire Irish banking sector.

For actual drawdowns, please contact my Nigerian backer, Prince Goodluck Jonathan.


#425

It is pretty obvious really. If houses were affordable (in Dublin) mortgage drawdowns would be way up. Make houses more affordable and restore some health to the “market”


#426

Analysis of the Q4 2014 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/news/new-mortgage-lending-q4-2014/

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q1 2014: 3,318
Q2 2014: 4,616
Q3 2014: 6,117
Q4 2014: 7,381 (4,039 FTB + 2,495 Mover + 395RIL + 201*50% Re-Mortgage) +5% per Note 1

In Q1 to Q4 2014 there were 21,432 mortgages by Volume or 1,786 per month (21,432/12)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume:
Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month.
This shows Q4 2014 is a whopping -80% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (7,381/37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume:
In Q1 to Q4 2013 there were 15,416 mortgages by Volume or 1,285 per month (15,416 /12)
This shows Q1 to Q4 2014 is 39% higher by Volume than Q1 to Q4 2013 (21,432/15,416)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q1 2014: 571
Q2 2014: 823
Q3 2014: 1,142
Q4 2014: 1,356 (675 FTB + 550 Mover + 44RIL + 44*50% Re-Mortgage) +5% per Note 1

In Q1 to Q4 2014 there was 3,892 €million lent in mortgages by Value or 324 per month (3,892/12)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value:
Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month
This shows Q4 2014 is a whopping -85% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (1,356m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value:
In Q1 to Q4 2013 there were 2,610 €million lent in mortgages by Value.
This shows Q1 to Q4 2014 is 49% higher by Volume than Q1 to Q4 2013 (3,792/2,610)

Average Loan by Value €m

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 167,097 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -33.7%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 167,097 vs Q3 2013 157,035. Annual increase 6.4%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 220,240 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -21.9%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 220,240 vs Q4 2013 218,982. Annual increase 0.6%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 110,598 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -66%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 110,598 vs Q3 2013 123,918. Annual decrease -10.7%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 220,650 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -17.5%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 xxxx vs Q4 2013 152,648. Annual increase 44.5%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#427

Am I reading this graph right. 80% of approvals are drawn down? That’s much higher than I would have expected.


#428

Q1 2015 Mortgage lending figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf


#429

I’d view the data as strong and consistent,if you incorporate the demand pull into Q4 for 2012/13/14 as various government incentives ended.

FTB:
2013 -
Q1 - 928 (affected by end of 2012 incentive (mortgage interest relief))
Q2 - 1600
Q3 - 2300
Q4 - 2700 (demand pulled forward)
2014 -
Q1 - 1700 (affected by end of 2013 incentive (I can’t remember this one but there was!))
Q2 - 2400
Q3 - 3300
Q4 - 4000 (demand pulled forward again)
2015 -
Q1 - 3000 still very strong despite end of CGT incentive


#430

I think this was a loophole whereby you got a free couple of years property tax. It wasn’t worth nearly as much as MIR or CGT…


#431

That’s it! Probably brought 3/400 transactions forward.


#432

Mortgage per transaction is also up (from Q1 2014).
174k versus 165k.


#433

Just looking at it.

FTB has gone from circa 150-155K per transaction to 165-168K per transaction from 2013 to present over a few Q’s.

Mover’s from 200-217k to 220k (all rough calcs). Not huge jumps relative to the jumps in transaction prices.

That’s good to hear in terms of banks provisions. They’ve not lost the run this time…


#434

FTB and Mover-Purchaser loan values are both (marginally) down on the last two quarters.
The introduction of macro-prudential measures will probably lead to that trend continuing.


#435

**Mortgage lending soars as recovery continues **
irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-lending-soars-as-recovery-continues-1.2218038


#436

was debating with an estate agent regarding the pricing on this

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -9/3102635

26 Annadale Drive.

which requires a total refurb - which will mean a spend of 125 per square metre - which the agent agreed with as a conservative estimate.

this means this property is worth 525,000 and with interest that rises to over 800,000 - unless I am mistaken.

the agent in DNG reckons he can achieve it though. and also isn’t at all worried about recent price drops in the area of 35000-50000
as those properties were over priced.

his is not though. so that’s ok then.


#437

What a kip!


#438

A stockbroker ignores reality and talks up the market …yada yada yada ‘recovery’ yada!

Ask my bollix, house prices are off the chart in Dublin, shitty boxes for a crazy cash. No credit, dwindling sales, cash on the sidelines drying up, dropping asking prices, this poxy little bubble has had its day in the sun. Roll on September when the media will have something new to write about!


#439

Analysis of the Q1 2015 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2014: 4,616
Q3 2014: 6,117
Q4 2014: 7,381
Q1 2015: 5,472 (3,011 FTB + 1,794 Mover + 320 RIL + 172*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Note 1)

In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 there were 23,586 mortgages by Volume or 1,965 per month

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume:
Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month.
This shows Q1 2015 is a whopping -85.22% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (5,472/37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume:
In Q2 2013 to Q1 2014 there were 15,692 mortgages by Volume or 1,308 per month
This shows Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 is 50% higher by Volume than Q2 2013 to Q1 2014 (23,586/15,692)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2014: 823
Q3 2014: 1,142
Q4 2014: 1,356
Q1 2015: 986 (501 FTB + 382 Mover + 36 RIL + 41*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Note 1)

In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 there was 4,307 €million lent in mortgages by Value or 359 €million per month

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value:
Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month
This shows Q1 2015 is a whopping -88.97% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (986m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value:
In Q2 2013 to Q1 2014 there were 2,747 €million lent in mortgages by Value.
This shows Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 is 57% higher by Volume than Q2 2013 to Q1 2014 (4,307/2,747)

Average Loan by Value €m

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2015 166,266 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -34.0%
b) Annual change: Q1 2015 166,266 vs Q1 2014 151,123. Annual increase +10.0%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2015 213,203 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -24.4%
b) Annual change: Q1 2015 213,203 vs Q1 2014 211,602. Annual increase +0.8%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2015 112,849 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -65.6%
b) Annual change: Q1 2015 112,849 vs Q1 2014 115,172. Annual decrease -2.0%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2015 238,720 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -10.7%
b) Annual change: Q1 2015 238,720 vs Q1 2014 153,688. Annual increase +55.3%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#440

Analysis of the Q2 2015 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3 2014: 6,117
Q4 2014: 7,381
Q1 2015: 5,472
Q2 2015 6,010 (3,322 FTB + 2,029 Mover + 253 RIL + 240*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Note 1)

In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 there were 24,980 mortgages by Volume or 2,082 per month

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume:
Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month.
This shows Q2 2015 is a whopping -83.8% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (6,010/37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume:
In Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 there were 17,271 mortgages by Volume or 1,439 per month
This shows Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 is 44.6% higher by Volume than Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 (24,980/17,271)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3 2014: 1,142
Q4 2014: 1,356
Q1 2015: 986
Q2 2015: 1,033 (552 FTB + 426 Mover + 27 RIL + 55*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Note 1)

In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 there was 4,569 €million lent in mortgages by Value or 381 €million per month

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value:
Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month
This shows Q2 2015 is a whopping -87.9% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (1,085m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value:
In Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 there were 2,231 €million lent in mortgages by Value.
This shows Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 is 104.8% higher by Volume than Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 (4,569/2,231)

Average Loan by Value €m

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2015 166,237 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -34.0%
b) Annual change: Q2 2015 166,237 vs Q2 2014 162,171. Annual increase +2.5%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2015209,710 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -25.6%
b) Annual change: Q2 2015 209,710 vs Q2 2014 209,756. Annual decrease -0.0%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2015 105,868 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -67.7%
b) Annual change: Q2 2015 105,868 vs Q2 2014 101,606. Annual increase +4.2%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2015 229,738 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -14.1%
b) Annual change: Q2 2015 229,738 vs Q2 2014 196,235. Annual increase +17.1%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#441

Really strikes me that the average mortgage for FTBers and movers is still low, <170k and <210k respectively.

Of course they are just that averages - but still it’s worth noting given how much talk is focused on €300k+ mortgages on here.