Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#341

Loathe as I am to doubt the managing director of the property arm of the Irish Times… Angela should know full well that the spike in transactions at the end of Q4 2012 - when MIR was ending - gave a one-off boost to transaction numbers if you do a last-12 month snapshot, which are not replicated if you do a Q-by-Q analysis.

But even then, the fact that there is a 12% jump in Dublin prices y-o-y is a dead-giveaway that transaction volumes are so small still that any minor market manipulation can have significant (for the size of the current market) repercussions.

Any EA worth their salt should smell the bullshit from the numbers - the spinning is just for the innocents being led to the slaughter.


#342

“…that there are just 3,400 properties currently for sale in Dublin, down from about 5,000 a year ago, and this lack of supply is driving prices higher…”

Transactions increasing while supply is steadily falling.

When will supply bottom out?


#343

Average FTB mortgage was down to 151,097, the second-lowest value ever in the history of the stats. Only Q1 2013 was lower (marginally).


#344

This is, in fact, false, The correct number is 7761. The CEO of MyHome appears to have made the same mistake that Landlord made all those months ago, in terms of not understanding how MyHome works.


#345

Analysis of the Q3 2013 IBF/Pwc Mortgage Market Profile figures
ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St … .sflb.ashx

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q4, 2012 5,630
Q1, 2013 1,834
Q2, 2013 2,892
Q3, 2013 4,089 (2,299 FTB + 1,556 Mover + 196+ RIL + 75*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 14,445

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q4 2012 to 34 2013 is 1,204 (14,445/12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013 is 3,611 (14,445/4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it 4,293 in Q3 2013 (4,089 x 1.05) or 1,431 mortgages a month (4,089 x 1.05/3)

In comparison, Peak lending by Volume was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month

This shows Q3 2013 is a whopping 88.4% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (4,293/37,015)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q4, 2012 965
Q1, 2013 311
Q2, 2013 491
Q3, 2013 717 (347 FTB + 339 Mover + 23 RIL + 16*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 2,484

Therefore,
average monthly sales value from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013 is 207 (2,484/12)
average quarterly sales value from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013 is 621 (2,484/4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it €753m in Q3 2013 (€717m x 1.05) or €251m a month (€717m x 1.05/3)

In comparison, Peak lending by Value was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947) or €2,982m a month

This shows Q3 2013 is a whopping 91.59% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (753/8,947)

Average Loan by Value €m
First-time Buyer (Q3 2013: 151,097 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Q3 Fall since Peak 40.0%)
Mover Purchaser (Q3 2013: 218,124 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Q3 Fall since Peak 22.6%)
Residential Investment Letting (Q3 2013: 115,530 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Q3 Fall since Peak 64.8%)
Re-mortgage (Q3 2013: 209,677 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Q3 Fall since Peak 21.6%)

Note 1: I exclude Top-ups, as IBF defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as IBF defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”


#346

Just because some internet nerd (Evilal) can access these old/additional pages is irrelevant :slight_smile:

If the average punter cannot view it well than it is not really advertised.


#347

This reminds me of the cartoon:

Customer at the counter, head in hand, arm outstretched forlornly… pointing to something on the shelves in the distance.
Indifferent employee at the computer, ignoring the exasperated wreck, simply reads off the screen and says:

“There’s no good pointing at it, the computer says it’s not in stock!”


#348

But they will still be on the EA’s own site, have a sign in the front garden, be on the MyHome map, etc.


#349

Are you sure :slight_smile:

Perhaps a fee examples to prove your point :slight_smile: maybe they are just old ads that computer nerds who process the secret keystokes can access.


#350

Remember speaking to a cab driver that year, his daughter had just bought a house for 150k in a Rural town. He was saying how lucky she was to get a good start in life. A similar house in the same estate failed to sell @ 75k at the most recent allsop auction


#351

I can match that. A reputable airline, not of this island, but not far away, scrapped its home-grown engineering parts system for a German product of excellent reputation that shall remain nameless shortly before a peak holiday season. The project was management-led by MBAs of impeccable provenance. Owing to budget constraints the data migration process was inadequately tested. When the system cutover, there was no fallback plan (who needs a fallback plan when you have a cutover plan?). Accordingly, vital, routinely changed parts could not be found in the parts warehouse. Planes ceased to be servicable and flights were cancelled. The engineers, although they knew where the parts were in teh warehouse, could not use them as the paper chain of the part (scrapped on paper with the new system) would be broken… I don’t believe the ‘savings’ of the new system have yet been realised in the fifteen years since then…


#352

:slight_smile:

I like the theory posited that computers make people dumber not smarter - i.e. instead of innovating around a problem, people simply defer to the technology.

We’re turning Japanese in more ways than one!


#353

Yep :smiley: And management gets dumber the more they think outsourcing is going to ‘sovle’ anything.


#354

As noted in another thread, the Q4 2013 IBF/PwC mortgage lending figures are out.

I’ve no pc access at present but my usual quarterly analysis will follow


#355

Analysis of the Q4 2013 IBF/Pwc Mortgage Market Profile figures

ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St … .sflb.ashx

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q1, 2013 1,834
Q2, 2013 2,892
Q3, 2013 4,089
Q4 4,804 (2,708 FTB + 1,862 Mover + 191 + RIL + 86*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 13,619

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q1 2013 to Q4 2013 is 1,135 (13,619/12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q1 2013 to Q4 2013 is 3,405 (13,619/4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it 5,044 in Q4 2013 (4,804 x 1.05) or mortgages a month (4,804 x 1.05/3)

In comparison, Peak lending by Volume was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month

This shows Q4 2013 is a whopping 86.37% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (5,044/37,015)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q1, 2013 311
Q2, 2013 491
Q3, 2013 717
Q4, 2013 864 (425 FTB + 408 Mover + 24 RIL + 13*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 2,383

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q1 2013 to Q4 2013 is 199 (2,383/12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q1 2013 to Q4 2013 is 596 (2,383/4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it €907m in Q4 2013 (€864m x 1.05) or €302m a month (€864m x 1.05/3)

In comparison, Peak lending by Value was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947) or €2,982m a month

This shows **Q4 2013 is a whopping 89.86% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 **(907m/8,947m)

Average Loan by Value €m
First-time Buyer (Q4 2013: 157,035 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Q4 2013 Fall since Peak 37.6%)
Mover Purchaser (Q4 2013: 218,982 x vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Q4 2013Fall since Peak 22.3%)
Residential Investment Letting (Q4 2013: 123,918 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Q4 2013 Fall since Peak 62.2%)
Re-mortgage (Q4 2013: 152,648 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Q4 2013 Fall since Peak 42.9%)

Note 1: I exclude Top-ups, as IBF defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as IBF defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”


#356

rte.ie/news/business/2014/0501/614275-mortgages/


#357

Approved…


#358

Approval is like sale agreed. It means nothing until the actual drawdown.


#359

No idea why ‘Approvals’ are even being talked about in the media - You may not get what you ask for, but most people who apply are given a figure they can potentially draw down. So yeah, eveyones approved for something…

Yesterdays figures from CSO barely saw the light of day yet ‘approvals’ make headline news - our media are really showing themselves up these days.

Speaking of which, when are the mortgage drawdown figures coming out?
Now, that should make interesting reading…


#360

The approvals which are counted in the report are firm approvals on a specific property, after a valuation report and any other necessary documentation has been received.

The report is not counting approvals in principle, which would be a higher figure.