Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#361

The Q1 2014 IBF/PwC Mortgage Market profile is the one to look for

Should be out inside the next fortnight

ibf.ie/gns/publications/rese … atest.aspx


#362

independent.ie/business/pers … 69942.html


#363

OK, this is interesting. Number of drawdowns up 65% according to the Indo. But number of sales is only up 39% (from 4546 to 6318).

Where are the cash buyers?


#364

… so there’s actually been an increase in both the number of cash buyers and mortgaged buyers over last year - interesting.

Still buying apparently!


#365

You’re missing my point… it would mean that the proportion of cash buyers has dropped. Assuming the numbers above are correct (I have not double-checked).


#366

I think that will increasingly be the case as the mortgage market strengthens and the proportion of mortgaged buyers rise.


#367

We’re in agreement – my point is that this is very interesting (if true). It would be actual numerical evidence of a big shift away from cash. Will have to double-check the numbers though…


#368

Both segments of the market are increasing.

And just because the cash buyers are tripping as against falling over each other does not distract from the fact that the number of cash buyers is increasing.


#369

Jesus you guys are unbelievable. It may shock you to know that I can do basic arithmetic. You bulls may only be interested in pimping the cash buyers segment, but I find it more interesting that the proportion of cash is dropping vs mortgages. Why? What does it mean? Is it even correct?


#370

It’s numerical evidence of an increase in cash buyers but an even larger increase in mortgaged buyers. And yes, it is interesting - I definitely didn’t think we would see such strong shift, with mortgages surging even more than the increase in cash buyers over the period.


#371

I think the proportion of cash is fairly meaningless. It is the amount that is important. The cash proportion looked extremely high in the last few years because credit was incredibly low.


#372

Does anyone have the raw numbers? It’s not that I’m suspicious of the Indo but… actually I am.


#373

Look on the bright side, the quicker the cash buyer buys property the quicker the cash runs out.

Not forgetting that the quicker the cash runs out the harder it is for the banks to fund mortgages (where have those pesky cash deposits gone?)

Thus prices will fall :slight_smile:


#374

ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St … .sflb.ashx


#375

:laughing:

That cash will be running out any day now - sure I couldn’t even get to the ATM earlier with all the home buyers in the queue ahead of me.


#376

Getting partial mortgages?

Is this not the issue. Cash buyers who still need a mortgage, to a lesser LTV, are classed or reported as “CASH BUYERS” in lights.


#377

I don’t think so, no. Any size of a mortgage is still reported as a non-cash buyer.


#378

Was it not the Indo who counted it differently i.e. as I wrote.

There might be older posts or thread itself here somewhere indicating such. My recollection has no hyperlink yet.


#379

The cash doesn’t run out, it just circulates around the system unless the sellers deposit the proceeds in a non-Irish bank or spend it outside the economy (e.g. stick it all in Facebook shares).


#380

Or deposits it in an Irish bank.