Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#401

Central Bank report is here
centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … l2014.aspx


#402

Analysis of the Q2 2014 IBF/Pwc Mortgage Market Profile figures

ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St … .sflb.ashx

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3, 2013 4,089
Q4, 2014 4,804
Q1, 2014 3,160
Q2, 2014 4,396 (2,440 FTB + 1,709 Mover + 188 RIL + 108*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 16,449

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 is 1,371 (4,396/12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 is 4,112 (4,396/4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it 4,616 in Q2 2014 (4,396 x 1.05) or 1,539 mortgages a month (4,396 x 1.05/3)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume: Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month

This shows Q2 2014 is a whopping 87.53% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (4,616/37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume: Q2 2013 was 2,892 (+5% = 3,037) or 1,012 mortgage a month.

This shows Q2 2014 is 52.01% higher by Volume than Q2 2013 (3,037 /4,616)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3, 2013 717
Q4, 2013 864
Q1, 2014 544
Q2, 2014 784 (396 FTB + 358 Mover + 19 RIL + 21*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 2,909

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 is 242 (2,909 /12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q3 2013 to Q2 2014 is 727 (2,909 /4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it €823m in Q2 2014 (€784m x 1.05) or €274m a month (€784m x 1.05/3)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value: Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month month

This shows Q2 2014 is a whopping 90.80% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (823m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value: Q2 2013 was €491m (+5% =€ 516m) or €172m mortgage a month.

This shows Q2 2014 is 59.67% higher by Value than Q2 2013 (516m /823m)

Average Loan by Value €m
First-time Buyer (Q2 2014: 162,171 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Q2 2014 Fall since Peak 35.6%)
Mover Purchaser (Q2 2014: 209,756 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Q2 2014 Fall since Peak 25.6%)
Residential Investment Letting (Q2 2014: 101,606 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Q2 2014 Fall since Peak 69.0%)
Re-mortgage (Q2 2014: 196,235 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Q2 2014 Fall since Peak 26.6%)

Note 1: I exclude Top-ups, as IBF defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as IBF defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Edit: Insert comparisons to previous 12 months


#403

Cheers for that.


#404

Thanks TheJackal,

It certainly looks like we aren’t going near peak levels, but the increase in lending is fairly dramatic compared to a year ago


#405

Total Transactions on ppr 36,259 (averaging 9K per Q) - Almost 20K (circa 55%) bought straight for cash.

Total transactions on ppr 7,621 €mln (averaging 1,905€mln per Q) - 4.7 €bln (circa 62%) outright cash purchases.

[Numbers per today’s ppr]

Would love to know what the average % the deposit is.


#406

Indicates a wave of cash came in during Q1.

Q3 cash injection, borrowers panic, transactions and lending increase in Q4.
Q1 cash injection, borrowers panic, transactions and lending increase in Q2.

A pattern?


#407

The suckers are entering the market now, fully armed with mortgage debt


#408

“Weapons of Self Destruction”, to quote Robin Williams.


#409

Too soon. :cry:


#410

Analysis of the Q3 2014 IBF/Pwc Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/news/new-mortgage-le … n-q3-2014/

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q4, 2014 4,804
Q1, 2014 3,160
Q2, 2014 4,396
Q3, 2014 5,826 (3,260 FTB + 2,239 Mover + 264 RIL + 126*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 18,186

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 is 1,516 (18,186 /12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 is 4,547 (18,186 /4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it 6,117 in Q3 2014 (18,186 x 1.05) or 2,039 mortgages a month (18,186 x 1.05/3)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume: Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month

This shows Q3 2014 is a whopping -83.47% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (6,117 /37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume: Q3 2013 was 4,089 (+5% = 4,293) or 1,431 mortgage a month.
This shows Q3 2014 is 42.48% higher by Volume than Q3 2014 (6,117 /4,293)

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q4, 2013 864
Q1, 2014 544
Q2, 2014 784
Q3, 2014 1,088 (543 FTB + 502 Mover + 31 RIL + 24*50% Re-Mortgage)

Total in past 12 months 3,281

Therefore,
average monthly sales volume from Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 is 273 (3,281 /12)
average quarterly sales volume from Q4 2013 to Q3 2014 is 820 (3,281 /4)

IBF states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.”

So let’s add 5%, making it €1,142m in Q3 2014 (€1,088m x 1.05) or €381m a month (€1,088m x 1.05/3)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value: Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month

This shows Q3 2014 is a whopping -87.23% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (1,142m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value: Q3 2013 was €717m (+5% =€753m) or €251m mortgage a month.
This shows Q3 2014 is 51.74% higher by Value than Q3 2013 (1,142m /753m)

Average Loan by Value €m

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2014 166,516 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -33.88%
b) Annual change: Q3 2014 166,516 vs Q3 2013 151,097. Annual increase 10.2%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2014 224,431 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -20.40%
b) Annual change: Q3 2014 224,431 vs Q3 2013 218,124. Annual increase 2.9%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2014 166,806 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -64.38%
b) Annual change: Q3 2014 166,806 vs Q3 2013 115,530. Annual increase 1.1%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2014 190,246 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -28.83%
b) Annual change: Q3 2014 190,246 vs Q3 2013 209,677. Annual decrease -9.3%

Note 1: I exclude Top-ups, as IBF defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as IBF defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”


#411

Prices were up 15% nationally in the year to September.

So cash is driving prices up?


#412

Indo headline: Mortgages up 51.74%


#413

I’d like to see a headline for the nations Blood Oxygen levels since our collective last breath and then post gasp.

:unamused:


#414

Watch out for ‘Sharp’ Charley…he must have gotten tired of writing ‘Surge’
independent.ie/business/pers … 82011.html

nice little disclaimer thrown in at the end!


#415

I am personally responsible for 3 of them…approved but have not been able to find the house that I want to buy at a price that I can afford (which is much more expensive than I would like!)… (and no, I don’t plan on buying 3 houses!)

It’s not really that surprising with the banks selling off large tranches of property to international investors instead of making them available to individuals who are actually mortgage approved…


#416

‘Sharp’ Charley no longer allows web comments at the end of his articles. I suppose having multiple lay people questioning your every word must not look good when you are the personal finance editor.


#417

Well they might be approving the money but they are not drawing it down. New mortgage lending is down by EUR 249m y/y and repayment of existing loans exceeds drawdowns by EUR 2.1bn y/y
irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2018830


#418

It will be fun to play the annual “What lending did the banks project vs What they actually lent” game this January.


#419

A slightly different story for drawdowns…

Mortgage lending declines by €249m in October - Central Bank

irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2018830

CBI press release here: centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … r2014.aspx

“Loans for house purchase … declined at an annual rate of 3 per cent.”

The bulls will now explain why this means house prices will go up :smiley:


#420

Prices and volumes are rising even though mortgage lending is falling.

The Perma-Bears are at a loss to explain why the “dead cash buying cat” is still bouncing :slight_smile: