Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#441

Really strikes me that the average mortgage for FTBers and movers is still low, <170k and <210k respectively.

Of course they are just that averages - but still it’s worth noting given how much talk is focused on €300k+ mortgages on here.


#442

Two thirds of the population live outside greater Dublin and once you exclude the richest bits of Cork and Galway in particular, I suppose you’re looking at near enough 55% of the population living in places that still have near enough 2012 prices. We really are developing a two speed property market.

Even Dublin has 1084 properties (25.36%) below €225K.


#443

The big juicy mortgages are and always have been the trader uppers. That’s the market segment that has been killed stone dead by the CB rules.

FTB’s are actually the least likely to default.


#444

I might be a bit lost here but how would the CB rules kill the trader upper segment. Surely they can get mortgage approval up to 80% of the value of the house and then by selling their house release the 20% cash needed to trade up (assuming they have that equity in the house). I know a lot of sales that are dependent on the buyer managing to sell their own house.


#445

Some more analysis of the Q2 2015 mortgage lending figures


#446

CSO figures for estimated internal migration would suggest that the two speeds are here to stay.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rpp/regionalpopulationprojections2016-2031/
Dublin and East regions set to see increasing migration from other areas particularly Midlands, Border counties and the West.


#447

They were able to do it with 10% before. Now they need double the cash or they have to sell their place first. Also LTI ratios.


#448

The average trader upper mortgage is <210k, is that really all that juicy?

Also mover numbers in Q1 up on Q1 2013 & 2014 per graphs in below link?

irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2218038

And if you now put in Q2 v’s Q2 2013 & 2014 - that’s also up?

Seem very premature to say it’s been killed stone dead? Is that based on any numbers?


#449

Totally agree but why do people use average salaries or other averages then when trying to justify their position? I guess that’s my point.

People looking at €450/500k+ dublin property don’t seem to realize it is actually in the top 15% (pick a number) of all property, and thus top 15% (pick a number) of income charts does actually apply to that property despite it being a 3 bed semi in whatever part of dublin (pick a nice part).

Only 33% of the property for sale in dublin at present per myhome.ie is at €400k or above. So using your figure,s that’s 33% of 33% or about 11% of the populations. Go to 450k or 500k and that narrows again.

So a 3 bed in Balinteer (or whever) for €450k - still, actually is, in the top 10% of the country, like it or not.

Or another way of viewing it;

Total entries for sale on myhome.ie = 24,300 at present. €400k+ = 3,380 (13.9%). So you are competing for top 13.9% of property available. Top 9% @ €500k. Top 6.5% @ €600k.

And again that’s after 2 years of significant price growth

That’s all a bit skewed of course (level of property available relative to country which is 4:1), but it’s definitely worth thinking about.

We get lost in the €500k+ houses on here.


#450

Still dont see how it would kill that particular market stone dead. I’m sure most trader uppers want to sell their house in the first place. A lot of people these days would be wary of exposing themselves to unintentionally owning two properties given the uncertain future of the market.


#451

Don’t be bringing facts and figures into the discussion :slight_smile:


#452

And given how small a house €500K will buy in Dublin, getting lost in one takes a really bad sense of direction. :wink:

:-GC


#453

In depth studies of the market segment I’m looking to buy in. :laughing:
Seeing a lot of vendor denial at that level and EA exasperation that the buyers are not flocking in like they did last year. Transaction rate for 2015 looks like it’s going to end up below 2014 at current rates.


#454

Transaction rates should be lower with cgt incentive removed.


#455

Okay, so no figures to prove the stone dead assertion. The figures actually show the opposite at present.

Dublin PPR transactions are approx 8300 to july 2015 (incomplete), but only 6,500 (6,466) for 2014. So up about 27.7%.

And nationwide it’s 20.2k 2014 to 24.8k 2015 (incomplete)

So not sure what you are referring to?


#456

Also total drawdown numbers to end of Q2 is at 11,628. this compares to 8,228 for same period in 2014 and 5,297 for 2013.

So 120% increase in numbers since 2013 based on first two quarters.


#457

:smiley:

Purely for my own interest I had a look at this, this morning on myhome.ie

1180 houses in dublin €500k or more listed, however only 1032 show up using max size filter

63 of these at or below 100sqm bracket

206 at or below 125sqm

396 at or below 150sqm

563 at or below 175 sqm

690 at or below 200 sqm

836 at or below 250 sqm

913 at or below 300sqm

Seems most (44%) fall between 150 - 250 sqm, 38% below 150sqm and about 18% above 250sqm.

Of the 38% below 150sqm - 6% of that 38% is below 100sqm and 32% of that 38% is in the 101sqm to 150sqm.

Make of that what you will (I’d want 150sqm+ anyway for €500k+)


#458

Anecdotal evidence will be the first sign of a change in the market.

However there is a certain amount of wishful thinking and straw grasping going on :slight_smile:

Time will identify credible pinsters.


#459

Totally agree, it was the same when things started to pick up initially, it took a prolonged time to feed into the numbers. It was all about the CSO & PPR though from the bears (I’m not actually a bull btw - I’d like prices to stabilise/fall slightly so I can trade up in 3/5yrs - sick of the 10%+ gains and losses each year).

That’s why i’d always be keen to stress it hasn’t fed into the numbers yet. I think it will, but not to the extent that some are making out.

It’s all about looking at it as balanced and objectively as possible. Comparing the numbers and trends against anecdotes and whose giving them.


#460

Anecdotally, of the 42 houses I’ve looked at sine December 2014 (North Dublin, 1m+), only 4 have sold and the rest are overpriced IMO by around 25%. I’m assuming the lack of sales suggests others feel the same or there are financing challenges.