Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#481

Quite possibly, I noticed they have put in an “on view” section recently to match Myhome.
Off topic but to be honest this is the biggest change I have noticed in the last few years. I probably don’t even see any houses that haven’t been on Myhome on view on a Saturday.


#482

I’m pretty sure they’ve fallen at our price level in our area since we bought towards the end of last year. That’s using a very small sample size as supply is so so limited.

There’s two houses lingering even after reducing advertised asking prices since last Winter. We’d viewed one of them. Nothing wrong with it at the time as far as we could see except the price perhaps. It had gone sale agreed but looks to have fallen through.


#483

Yea surely approvals maybe be granted by two Banks or more for the same property or is it too far into the process for that too occur, how else did people bid up the price and blow up the property market?


#484

This probably does not factor in the 424 new developments with multiple units across the country. Lets say there’s conservatively 20 on average. Bang, another 8000 units.


#485

You only normally get full approval after agreeing a price, that is, going sale agreed, don’t you? At that point the bank provides a loan offer. Anything up to that is just some form of approval in principle, I think.


#486

Seems improbable that prices can go back to 2006 levels, unless there are major changes to both the lending restrictions and the sentiment of the banks.


#487

Maybe in commuter towns but not likely in Dublin imo

1 bed apartments require 25% deposit minimum no matter what price.


#488

Perhaps inaction is government design.
And taxing new builds beyond the reach of those with mortgages limitied to 3.5x earnings & a hefty deposit.


#489

The CGT exemption if bought and held for 7 years and tax on DIRT is government design. Pulled forward a lot of demand and raised prices. Also reduces transaction rates for the 7-10 year period.

You then have those who would get hit for 33% on CGT. This also reduces transaction rates.

All government design.

Bring CGT downto 15% and see what stock looks like then.


#490

When did that scheme commence? Are we a bit away from seeing the first of those houses bought under this scheme now coming on the market?


#491

2012 IIRC.


#492

Why not reduce to 3yrs as it has served its purpose. Reduce cgt to a level that will encourage transactions.

If they don’t, imagine the oversupply in 2019 when investors sell hoping to realise profit tax free and all those developments that get pushed through for this emergency crisis of housing supply.


#493

The great bubble of 2019!


#494

Because then people would start dumping now.


#495

To be honest I’m not 100% after rereading the notes

From my reading of the notes What is a mortgage approval? the original definition is that approvals are only counted
“after a valuation report and any other necessary documentation have been received” so after a sale agreed.

While this could possibly happen with more than one bank it is unlikely that a person would pay for more than one valuation report with separate banks, the only duplication would be where for some reason after getting the bank valuation and approval someone pulls out and then another person goes sale agreed so one approval at a time and these would probably not be duplicated in a 3 month rolling average.

However, I think this may now have changed from the definition above to an approval which “contains the Notice of important information to be included in a housing loan agreement specified in the Consumer Credit Act 1995”

I’m not clear whether this loosens the criteria for inclusion, maintain it or increase it?


#496

Make it 4yrs so only those from 2012 would be selling. Reduces ownership supply problem


#497

Analysis of the Q1 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mo … drawdowns/

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2015: 6,010
Q3 2015: 6,984
Q4 2015: 7,565
Q1 2016: 5,103 (2,599 FTB + 1,760 Mover +305 RIL + 392*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q1 2016 5,103
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2016 is -86.2% lower than Peak and +165.1% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 there were 23,586 mortgages by Volume or 1,965 per month
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 there were 25,662 mortgages by Volume or 2,139 per month
This shows a change of +8.8% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2015: 1,085m
Q3 2015: 1,323m
Q4 2015: 1,403m
Q1 2016: 989m (462m FTB + 405m Mover + 36m RIL + 78m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q1 2016 989m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q1 2016 is -88.9% lower than Peak and +202.9% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q2 2014 to Q1 2015 4,308m was lent for mortgage by Value or 359m per month
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 4,800m was lent for mortgages by Value or 400m per month
This shows a change of +11.4% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -29.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +18.3%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 177,722 vs Q1 2015 166,266. Annual increase +6.9%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –18.%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Trough Q2 2013 199,219. Rise since Trough +15.6%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 230,284 vs Q1 2015 213,203. Annual increase +8.0%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 118,689 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -63.8%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 118,689vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +16.8%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 118,689vs Q1 2015 112,849. Annual increase +5.2%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2016 197,704 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -26.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2016 197,704 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +45.2%
c) Annual change: Q1 2016 197,704vs Q1 2015 238,720. Annual decrease -17.2%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#498

Did these calcs in Aug 2014. Amazed, or not, it takes TWO years to compare two excel sheets and come up with some data. Think it took me 30mins at the time and that was just to parse the Mortgage lending from website…


#499

Analysis of the Q2 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3 2015: 6,824
Q4 2015: 7,452
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314 (3,297 FTB +2,153 Mover +317 RIL + 493*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q2 2016 6,314
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2016 is -82.9% lower than Peak and +228.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 there were 24,821 mortgages by Volume or 2,068 per month
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 there were 25,677 mortgages by Volume or 2,140 per month
This shows a change of +3.4% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3 2015: 1,329m
Q4 2015: 1,398m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m (603m FTB + 500m Mover + 38m RIL + 108m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q2 2016 1,255m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q2 2016 is -86.0% lower than Peak and +284.2% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q3 2014 to Q2 2015 4,587m was lent for mortgage by Value or 382m per month
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 4,957m was lent for mortgages by Value or 413m per month
This shows a change of +8.1% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -27.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +21.7%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 182,894 vs Q2 2015 171,618. Annual increase +6.6%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –17.6%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +17.5%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 232,281 vs Q2 2015 212,636. Annual increase +9.2%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -63.6%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +17.4%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 119,243 vs Q2 2015 107,451. Annual increase +11.0%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -18.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +60.3%
c) Annual change: Q2 2016 218,256 vs Q2 2015 235,943. Annual decrease -7.5%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#500

Look at the average FTB value go up as (presumably) deposits are saved/“found”.