Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#501

If only this could put to bed once and for all the ‘controversy’ about the CB rules being the problem inthe Irish property market

Mortgage approvals up by 50% from August 2015 ahead of Central Bank’s review; concerns mount that supply is
irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2807093

Very smart commentators :unamused:


#502

This is in the IT

The same “newspaper” attacks the CBI rules almost daily

Removing the CBI rules would increase demand and increase the amount people have to spend, it would merely increase prices if there is no supply increase

Are commentators stupid? Or do they not realise when they talk out of both sides of their mouth?

Yet again I ask the question - why the fuck would anyone pay money for this piece of shit publication?


#503

Can anyone tell me what the annual mortgage approval rate is ?


#504

A pillar bank employee told me it was very high, there’s self selection at play and also filtering of “bad” cases i.e. someone who would be rejected might not even get through the full application process


#505

+1
When we were getting mortgage in 2014 I remember asking our broker if there were many mortgage application rejections post-boom. He said no - for the reasons outlined above. Most banks will turn down the mortgage before it “officially enters the appraisal system”.

Allows the banks to spout nonsense like '85% of applications approved!"*

*…of the ones they consider to be valid applications.

Like Mr Anderson, I’d be curious about what the different bank stats are for mortgages “considered”, and then actually approved/rejected. Then factor in those who went to a mortgage broker and fell at that hurdle.
A broker, if one could share high level data on here, might have a better breakdown.
People in the door, percentage applications submitted to bank, percentage of those submittals approved.


#506

You also have to consider that as their online calculators improve people will self-select.


#507

And formal rejection rates were higher back in the boom???


#508

I’ve no idea, but I’d suspect not.
My Stephen Colbert-like “gut hunch” was that the rejection rate should be massively higher in the post-boom world, but like most things “gut-based” that I hadn’t thought about for 10 seconds - it wasn’t necessarily true according to the broker we used.

Again - I’d love to see meaningful numbers.
Any brokers out there with “hypothetical numbers”?


#509

My hunch would be the opposite – in the CT days everyone applied for mortgages and most people got it. These days people expect it to be a nightmare so only apply if they have everything in order and the local bank person has given them an informal thumbs up. Equally a broker isn’t going to submit an application that isn’t pristine. I’d expect almost everyone who actually formally applies to get it.


#510

+1

Brokers try and avoid wasting there time on applications which they know will not get approved


#511

I fully agree - my gut hunch was totally wrong.
If i had thought about it for a few more seconds before asking broker I would have remembered that literally anyone was applying for a mortgage with little information in 04/05… whereas these days the application standard is much higher, and the application only really formally goes in when it’s a close certainty.

Ah foolish me, assuming for a second that


#512

Analysis of the Q3 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q4 2015: 7,452
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593 (3,952 FTB + 2,622 Mover + 320 RIL + 674*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q3 2016 7,593
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q3 2016 is -79.5% lower than Peak and +294.4% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q4 2014 to Q3 2015 there were 25,528 mortgages by Volume or 2,127 per month
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 there were 26,445 mortgages by Volume or 2,204 per month
This shows a change of +3.6% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q4 2015: 1,398m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m (723m FTB + 609m Mover + 40m RIL + 142m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q3 2016 1,515m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q3 2016 is -83.1% lower than Peak and +364.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q4 2014 to Q3 2015 4,774m was lent for mortgage by Value or 398m per month
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 5,143m was lent for mortgages by Value or 429m per month
This shows a change of +7.7% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -27.4%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +21.7%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 182,844 vs Q3 2015 175,702. Annual increase +4.1%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –17.7%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +17.4%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 232,113 vs Q3 2015 229,433. Annual increase +1.2%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -62.2%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +22.1%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 124,063 vs Q3 2015 120,872. Annual increase +2.6%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -21.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +54.4%
c) Annual change: Q3 2016 210,831 vs Q3 2015 225,076. Annual decrease -6.3%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#513

irishtimes.com/business/pers … -1.2857583


#514

Analysis of the Q4 2016 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … ebsite.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q1 2016: 5,086
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593
Q4 2016: 8,423 (4,238 FTB + 2,987 Mover + 371 RIL + 851*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q4 2016 8,423
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q4 2016 is -77.2% lower than Peak and +337.5% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q1 2015 to Q4 2015 there were 25,600 mortgages by Volume or 2,133 per month
In Q1 2016 to Q4 2016 there were 27,416 mortgages by Volume or 2,285 per month
This shows a change of +7.1% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q1 2016: 976m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m
Q4 2016: 1,750m (809m FTB + 716m Mover + 46m RIL + 191m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q4 2016 1,750m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q4 2016 is -80.4% lower than Peak and +435.9% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q1 2015 to Q4 2015 4,816m was lent for mortgage by Value or 401m per month
In Q1 2016 to Q4 2016 5,496m was lent for mortgages by Value or 458m per month
This shows a change of +14.1% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -24.8%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +27.1%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 190,986 vs Q4 2015 172,188. Annual increase +10.9%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –15.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +21.1%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 239,571 vs Q4 2015 217,710. Annual increase +10.0%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 123,720 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -62.3%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 123,720 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +21.8%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 115,288 vs Q4 2015 120,872. Annual increase +7.3%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -16.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +64.6%
c) Annual change: Q4 2016 224,207 vs Q3 2015 210,394. Annual increase 6.6%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#515

Analysis of the Q1 2017 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/ … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2016: 6,314
Q3 2016: 7,593
Q4 2016: 8,423
Q1 2017: 6,484 (3,295 FTB +2,245 Mover + 313 RIL + 644*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q1 2017 6,484
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2017 is - 82.5% lower than Peak and +236.8% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 there were 25,219 mortgages by Volume or 2,102 per month
In Q2 2016 to Q1 2017 there were 28,813 mortgages by Volume or 2,401 per month
This shows a change of +14.2% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2016: 1,255m
Q3 2016: 1,515m
Q4 2016: 1,750m
Q1 2017: 1,351m (639m FTB + 538m Mover + 40m RIL + 140m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q1 2017 1,351m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q1 2017 is -84.9% lower than Peak and +313.8% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q2 2015 to Q1 2016 4,786m was lent for mortgage by Value or 399m per month
In Q2 2016 to Q1 2017 5,871m was lent for mortgages by Value or 489m per month
This shows a change of +22.7% from 12 months previously

b]Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -22.9%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +29.1%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 194,052 vs Q1 2016 177,331. Annual increase +9.4%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –15.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +21.2%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 239,599 vs Q1 2016 225,014. Annual increase +6.5%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -60.7%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +26.7%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 128,754 vs Q1 2016 118,027. Annual increase +9.1%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -18.9%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +59.3%
c) Annual change: Q1 2017 216,925 vs Q1 2016 197,857. Annual increase +9.6%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#516

Let’s take the lending figures against the volume of transactions as per Propertypriceregister to indicate the cash purchases.

Q2 2016: 6,314 - 11553 transactions - 2.73bln total - 54.5/45.5 mort/cash
Q3 2016: 7,593 - 12866 transactions - 3.19bln total - 59.1/40.9 mort/cash
Q4 2016: 8,423 - 13304 transactions - 3.39bln total - 63.3/36.6 mort/cash

Swing from 45/55 mort/cash in 2013/14:

I still maintain they need to look at the CGT exemption. Bring it forward to the first & second year eligible now. We are building up to a lot of supply coming online in 2019 between the great land give away and CGT 7 year holders. There is no reward to government in holding on until 2019. Maybe, even offer to allow the 7 year holders liquidate now at 5/10% CGT.


#517

Analysis of the Q2 2017 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/ … 2-2017.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q3 2016: 7,593
Q4 2016: 8,423
Q1 2017: 6,484
Q2 2017: 7,474 (3,984 FTB +2,453 Mover + 344 RIL +675*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q2 2017 7,474
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q2 2017 is -79.8% lower than Peak and +288.2% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 there were 25,677 mortgages by Volume or 2,140 per month
In Q3 2016 to Q2 2017 there were 29,973 mortgages by Volume or 2,498 per month
This shows a change of +16.7% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q3 2016: 1,515m
Q4 2016: 1,750m
Q1 2017: 1,351m
Q2 2017: 1,603m (797m FTB + 608m Mover + 45m RIL + 154m *50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q2 2017 1,603m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q2 2017 is -82.1% lower than Peak and +391.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q3 2015 to Q2 2016 3,702m was lent for mortgage by Value or 309m per month
In Q3 2016 to Q2 2017 4,616m was lent for mortgages by Value or 385m per month
This shows a change of +24.7% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2017 200,083 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -20.5%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2017 200,083 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +33.1%
c) Annual change: Q2 2017 200,083 vs Q2 2016 182,894. Annual increase +9.4%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2017 247,888 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak –12.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2017 247,888 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +24.4%
c) Annual change: Q2 2017 247,888 vs Q1 2016 225,014. Annual increase +6.7%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2017 131,181 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -60.0%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2017 131,181 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +29.1%
c) Annual change: Q2 2017 131,181 vs Q1 2016 118,027. Annual increase +10.0%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q2 2017 228,654 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -14.5%
b) Change since Trough: Q2 2017 228,654 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +67.9%
c) Annual change: Q12 2017 228,654 vs Q1 2016 197,857. Annual increase +4.8%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”


#518

Looks like there was an end of Q surge in Q4 to avail of the FTB grant. Pulled forward demand from Q1.


#519

It’s old news, I know, but the most shocking figure is still the one for 2008 Q2 investor mortgages: €327,927! XX


#520

BPFI never posted their Excel table last qtr so had to wait til now to post these figures…

Analysis of the Q3 2017 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/ … 3-2017.pdf

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q4 2016: 8,423
Q1 2017: 6,484
Q2 2017: 7,474
Q3 2017: 8,894 (4,885 FTB +2,854 Mover + 343 RIL +777*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q3 2017 8,894
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q3 2017 is -76.0% lower than Peak and +362.0% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 there were 26,445 mortgages by Volume or 2,204 per month
In Q4 2016 to Q3 2017 there were 31,275 mortgages by Volume or 2,606 per month
This shows a change of +18.3% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q4 2016: 1,750m
Q1 2017: 1,351m
Q2 2017: 1,603m
Q3 2017: 1,967m (1,010m FTB + 731m Mover + 43m RIL + 178m *50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q3 2017 1,967m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q3 2017 is -78.0% lower than Peak and +502.3% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q4 2015 to Q3 2016 5,143m was lent for mortgages by Value or 429m per month
In Q4 2016 to Q3 2017 6,671m was lent for mortgages by Value or 556m per month
This shows a change of +29.7% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2017 206,856 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -17.9%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2017 206,856 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +37.6%
c) Annual change: Q3 2017 206,856 vs Q3 2016 182,844. Annual increase +13.1%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2017 256,159 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -9.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2017 256,159 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +29.5%
c) Annual change: Q3 2017 256,159 vs Q3 2016 124,063. Annual increase +10.4%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2017 126,796 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -61.3%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2017 126,796 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +24.8%
c) Annual change: Q3 2017 126,796 vs Q3 2016 210,831. Annual increase +2.2%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q3 2017 229,525 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -14.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q3 2017 229,525 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +68.6%
c) Annual change: Q3 2017 229,525 vs Q3 2016 210,831. Annual increase +8.9%

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”