Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....


#542

Charlie Weston: ‘Investors and downsizers are the cash kings in property realm’
independent.ie/opinion/comm … 29861.html

Other sources of cash buyers mentioned…
The bank deposits looking for better returns (100Bn)/BTL investors/Downsizers/TradeUppers/RichParents


#543

Analysis of the Q1 2019 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

Mortgage Lending by Volume

Q2 2018: 8,435

Q3 2018: 9,909

Q4 2018: 10,983

Q1 2019: 7,704 (4,061 FTB + 2,340 Mover + 272 RIL + 1,328*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis

Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:

Current: Q1 2019 7,704

Peak: Q4 2005 37,015

Trough: Q1 2013 1,925

This shows Q1 2019 is -79.2% lower than Peak and +300.2% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:

Peak: Q4 2005 37,015

Trough: Q1 2013 1,925

This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Volume:

In Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 there were 33,236 mortgages by Volume or 2,770 per month

In Q2 2018 to Q1 2019 there were 37,030 mortgages by Volume or 3,086 per month

This shows a change of +11.4% from 12 months previously

Mortgage Lending by Value €m

Q2 2018: 1,905m

Q3 2018: 2,256m

Q4 2018: 2,484m

Q1 2019: 1,767m (902m FTB +587m Mover + 40m RIL +308m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

Analysis

Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:

Current: Q1 2019 1,767m

Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m

Trough: Q1 2013 327m

This shows Q1 2019 is -80.2% lower than Peak and +441.2% higher than Trough

b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:

Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m

Trough: Q1 2013 327m

This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

c) Annual Change by Value:

In Q2 2016 to Q1 2018 7,365m was lent for mortgages by Value or 614m per month

In Q2 2017 to Q1 2019 8,412m was lent for mortgages by Value or 701m per month

This shows a change of +14.2% from 12 months previously

Average Loan by Value €

First-time Buyer

a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -11.8%

b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +47.8%

c) Annual change: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Q1 2018 216,458. Annual increase +2.6%

Mover Purchaser

a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -11.1%

b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +26.8%

c) Annual change: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Q1 2018 253,072. Annual decrease -0.9%

Residential Investment Letting

a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -55.7%

b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +42.9%

c) Annual change: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Q1 2018 144,847. Annual increase +0.2%

Re-mortgage

a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 231,914 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -13.2%

b) Change since Trough Q1 2019 231,914 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +70.3%

c) Annual change: Q1 2019 231,914 vs Q1 2018 228,120. Annual increase +1.7%

Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


#544

Great analysis. Interesting to see FTB average loan amounts grow at a rate close to inflation.

I wonder does the mover loan average loan amount show potential weakness in the higher levels of the market?


#545

The average FTB loan on a new house is even tighter – up barely one percent in a year. It doesn’t tell us about the purchase prices and if FTBs are managing to save more for lower LTVs, but with higher rents I’d bet against it. I would guess prices in the FTB market are now completely constrained by the CB lending limits.

Interesting also to see BTL volumes are down nearly a quarter.


#546

Analysis of the Q1 2019 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures
.


.
Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q2 2018: 8,435
Q3 2018: 9,909
Q4 2018: 10,983
Q1 2019: 7,704 (4,061 FTB + 2,340 Mover + 272 RIL + 1,328*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)
.
Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:
Current: Q1 2019 7,704
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows Q1 2019 is -79.2% lower than Peak and +300.2% higher than Trough
.
b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:
Peak: Q4 2005 37,015
Trough: Q1 2013 1,925
This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages
.
c) Annual Change by Volume:
In Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 there were 33,236 mortgages by Volume or 2,770 per month
In Q2 2018 to Q1 2019 there were 37,030 mortgages by Volume or 3,086 per month
This shows a change of +11.4% from 12 months previously
.

Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q2 2018: 1,905m
Q3 2018: 2,256m
Q4 2018: 2,484m
Q1 2019: 1,767m (902m FTB +587m Mover + 40m RIL +308m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)
.
Analysis
a) Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:
Current: Q1 2019 1,767m
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows Q1 2019 is -80.2% lower than Peak and +441.2% higher than Trough
.
b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:
Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m
Trough: Q1 2013 327m
This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages
.
c) Annual Change by Value:
In Q2 2016 to Q1 2018 7,365m was lent for mortgages by Value or 614m per month
In Q2 2017 to Q1 2019 8,412m was lent for mortgages by Value or 701m per month
This shows a change of +14.2% from 12 months previously
.

Average Loan by Value €
.
First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -11.8%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +47.8%
c) Annual change: Q1 2019 222,177 vs Q1 2018 216,458. Annual increase +2.6%
.
Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -11.1%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +26.8%
c) Annual change: Q1 2019 250,673 vs Q1 2018 253,072. Annual decrease -0.9%
.
Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -55.7%
b) Change since Trough: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +42.9%
c) Annual change: Q1 2019 145,199 vs Q1 2018 144,847. Annual increase +0.2%
.
Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q1 2019 231,914 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -13.2%
b) Change since Trough Q1 2019 231,914 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +70.3%
c) Annual change: Q1 2019 231,914 vs Q1 2018 228,120. Annual increase +1.7%
.

Note 1: BPFI states “We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market.” So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.
.
Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”
.
Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as “a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase.”