Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff

mortgages

#591

Analysis of the Q2 2021 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

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Mortgage Lending by Volume

Q3 2020: 7,338

Q4 2020: 11,394

Q1 2021: 8,383

Q2 2021: 8,607

(4,895 FTB + 2,295 Mover + 248 RIL + 1,519*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

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Analysis

a) Current v Peak and Trough by Volume:

Current: Q2 2021 8,607

Peak: Q4 2005 37,015

Trough: Q1 2013 1,925

This shows current quarter is -76.7% lower than Peak and +347.1% higher than Trough

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b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Volume:

Peak: Q4 2005 37,015

Trough: Q1 2013 1,925

This shows a change of -94.8% from highest to lowest Volume of mortgages

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c) Annual Change by Volume:

In Q3 2019 to Q2 2020 there were 35,694 mortgages by Volume or 2,974 per month

In Q3 2020 to Q2 2021 there were 35,723 mortgages by Volume or 2,977 per month

This shows a change of +0.1% from 12 months previously

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Mortgage Lending by Value €m

Q3 2020: 1,835m

Q4 2020: 2,854m

Q1 2021: 2,033m

Q2 2021: 2,092m

(1,141m FTB + 631m Mover + 36m RIL +369m*50% Re-Mortgage + 5% per Notes 1-3)

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Analysis

Current v Peak and Trough by Value €m:

Current: Q2 2021: 2,092m

Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m

Trough: Q1 2013 327m

This shows current quarter is -76.6% lower than Peak and +540.7% higher than Trough

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b) Change from Peak and Trough lending by Value:

Peak: Q3 2006 8,947m

Trough: Q1 2013 327m

This shows a change of -96.4% from highest to lowest by Value of mortgages

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c) Annual Change by Value:

In Q3 2019 to Q2 2020 8,397m was lent for mortgages by Value or 700m per month

In 32 2020 to Q2 2021 8,815m was lent for mortgages by Value or 735m per month

This shows a change of +5.0% from 12 months previously

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Average Loan by Value €

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First-time Buyer

a) Change since Peak: Q2 2021 233,069 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -7.5%

b) Change since Trough: Q2 2021 233,069 vs Trough Q1 2013 150,292. Rise since Trough +55.1%

c) Annual change: Q2 2021 233,069 vs Q2 2020 223,941. Annual increase +4.1%

Mover Purchaser

a) Change since Peak: Q2 2021 275,030 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -2.5%

b) Change since Trough: Q2 2021 275,030 vs Trough Q2 2013 197,756. Rise since Trough +39.1%

c) Annual change: Q2 2021 275,030 vs Q2 2020 245,326. Annual increase +12.1%

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Residential Investment Letting

a) Change since Peak: Q2 2021 144,293 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -56.0%

b) Change since Trough: Q2 2021 144,293 vs Trough Q2 2014 101,606. Rise since Trough +42.0%

c) Annual change: Q2 2021 144,293 vs Q2 2020 143,364. Annual increase +0.6%

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Re-mortgage

a) Change since Peak: Q2 2021 242,874 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak –9.1%

b) Change since Trough Q2 2021 242,874 vs Trough Q4 2012 136,174. Rise since Trough +78.4%

c) Annual change: Q2 2021 242,874 vs Q2 2020 243,167. Annual decrease -0.1%

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Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

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Note 2: I’ve included 50% of each quarter’s Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as “a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release.”

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Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


#592

The frighting number from a tenant perspective - 248 new BTL mortgages.

I wonder how many landlords sold properties during the quarter.