Is Ireland, in its current state, ruined?


#1

Did the bubble era and GFC fall out ruin Ireland? In terms of property ownership, free time and raising a family.
We have shocking house prices and rents in the capital where most of the jobs are but jobs are far more varied than say in the 1980s when house prices were closer to 3 times a single household income and mortgage terms were more likely to be 12-25 year terms than 30 - 40 year terms.

Dublin isnt Ireland but looking at this question from a macro perspective rather than at the individual level


#2

ehhh No.

Compared to the utter ruination visited upon us by Haughey, Fitzgerald, Lynch, O Donohue and Spring in the period from 1977-1987 the recent travails starting 2008 were much less ruinous overall and we came out of it quicker and in better shape.

There are some accommodation problems in Dublin but that is not a nationwide issue and it will eventually be sorted…even if we have to wait 5 years for supply to properly kick in.


#3

I’m prepared to be flamed for this view but…

I think most westernised Countries / Cities have deteriorated in the last 25-30 years for a wide variety of reasons. A lot is due to the adverse impact that large corporations / employers now have on policy and community (effectively globalisation) despite there being some real positives (we’re wealthier for a start). London is radically different to what it was like in the mid-90’s. There were real communities living cheek and jowl with industry. Most of these have long since vanished. I believe Paris is similar and Dublin seems to be more like one large commercial campus rather than a living city. “Downtown” areas of US cities have gone the similar route - Boston is unrecognisable from the early 90’s.

I think this will continue for a generation however it will turn full 180 degrees in in the middle of this century, former “westernised” cities will revert to be more like they were in the middle of the last Century. Globalisation will disproportionately impact former 3rd world communities (Africa / Central Asia).


#4

Let’s see, in the last 30 years

  • Education levels are higher
  • Crime levels are lower.
  • Life expectancy is longer;
  • Air quality and pollution standards are better;
  • Health standards are higher, and yes, even the health service is better;
  • The roads have improved;
  • Quality of housing has improved, granted only from a pitifully low standard to a poor standard. The slums are largely gone.
  • Coffee standards are better: 30 years ago it was impossible to get a decent Latte anywhere in Dublin.

The downside,

  • Some people are having to commute longer to afford places.
  • For some people living in the suburb that they grew up in is now not practical.

Since I grew up in a part of the country in which people routinely lived away from home during the week and went home at the weekend to see Family, I’ve a different perspective on the downsides. Yes, there are downsides, but the downsides are not catastrophic.


#5
  • Education levels are higher - (are they, or have we just seen dumbing down and massive grade inflation) Debatable

  • Crime levels are lower. I think many would beg to differ on this. The serious crime rates and murders are through the roof

  • Life expectancy is longer; - OK, stats bare that out

  • Air quality and pollution standards are better; - Mmm there were far fewer diesels in towns and cities 30 years ago. But engines are more fuel efficient alright. But still the ‘Green’ policy towards diesel has done a lot of damage to air quality. Debatable

  • Health standards are higher, and yes, even the health service is better; - OK, stats will confirm. Arguably we are popping a lot more pills though, so some swings and roundabouts

  • The roads have improved; - You pay for it. How many times have motorists paid for the M50 at this stage.

  • Quality of housing has improved, granted only from a pitifully low standard to a poor standard. The slums are largely gone. - Ok energy efficiency has improved dramatically. Not sure build quality from the Celtic Tiger is something people would be proud about though.

  • Coffee standards are better: 30 years ago it was impossible to get a decent Latte anywhere in Dublin. - No worries, but caffeine addiction, and the associated sleep deprivation/concentration issues are through the roof as well.


#6

I’ll only speak of personal perspective and I feel my options are infinitely better than my parents.

None of my siblings work the kind of hours our parents did when they were both working in average jobs and raising us while paying much higher income tax.

I don’t think the gulf in experience between us and our parents exists between us and the following generation so there may be an expectation of advancement or improvement that really has no foundation.

Our lives may actually be the new normal but will that satisfy the following generations who don’t see the advancements made since the 70,80s etc?


#7

We all probably work longer hours than my dad did, and as he tells us all the time he managed to pay off mtge in 20 years when our mum was a stay at home mum. My siblings and I are all in relationships where both parties work…so if you ask him he says we have it much worse than he did :stuck_out_tongue:


#8

health standards? eh the obesity crisis anyone? That`ll end up reducing life expectancy as time moves on


#9

Smoking seems to be declining, but you might be right obesity will eat into the gains


#10

Yeah but coffee standards are much better, who cares if you and your better half are wage slaves with a 40 year mortgage, your tiny house is worth the slavery, and OMG Storbucks is just amazing


#11

Beattie’s dad is dead right.
In the old days guys came home after a hard day’s and found a decent hot meal on table. But somewhere in the Celtic tiger women stopped cooking, and no amount of bailout helped 'em regain that habit.
Beattie’s dad is dead right; the good old days really were much better.


#12

Hmmm…
Epicurus responded in funky colour to The Curious One…

  • Education levels are higher - (are they, or have we just seen dumbing down and massive grade inflation) Debatable
    [YM]No, it isn’t debatable. Literacy rates are higher, numeracy rates are higher, standardised test scores are higher.
    The statistics are out there.

  • Crime levels are lower. I think many would beg to differ on this. The serious crime rates and murders are through the roof

[YM] No, that’s not true either:
irishtimes.com/news/crime-a … -1.2592080
Again, statistics.

  • Life expectancy is longer; - OK, stats bare that out
    [YM] Bear.

  • Air quality and pollution standards are better; - Mmm there were far fewer diesels in towns and cities 30 years ago. But engines are more fuel efficient alright. But still the ‘Green’ policy towards diesel has done a lot of damage to air quality. Debatable
    [YM] Well, black diesel particulates from buses and trucks beg to differ. Do you not remember them belching out? Even NOx levels are well down YoY:
    eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps … a-viewer-1

  • Health standards are higher, and yes, even the health service is better; - OK, stats will confirm. Arguably we are popping a lot more pills though, so some swings and roundabouts
    [YM] Again, that word ‘arguably’ - you are casting doubt without providing any backup for it.

  • The roads have improved; - You pay for it. How many times have motorists paid for the M50 at this stage.

[YM] Okay, but you do know that’s not how taxation works? The M50 Toll is a tax, just like any of the other taxes.

  • Quality of housing has improved, granted only from a pitifully low standard to a poor standard. The slums are largely gone. - Ok energy efficiency has improved dramatically. Not sure build quality from the Celtic Tiger is something people would be proud about though.
    [YM] Not sure I understand your point? Pride in a wall?

  • Coffee standards are better: 30 years ago it was impossible to get a decent Latte anywhere in Dublin. - No worries, but caffeine addiction, and the associated sleep deprivation/concentration issues are through the roof as well.
    [YM] Listen here Eeyore, a decent coffee is one of life’s great pleasures


#13

Except it hasn’t yet - it has long been predicted to, and it’s putting a strain on health services, but like many media “crises”, it’s a slow effect. Given high taxes in smoking eventually got to the level where they had an effect, perhaps we should consider the same for sugar? I don’t really like it, but if you think it really is a crisis, then desperate measures are called for, right?


#14

This is a very broad question and as usual it depends on your perspective, Even within Dublin itself you can drive from a very pleasant part to a rough enough part very quickly and people in each area will have different perspectives. And the country towns and even the countryside have changed a great deal since the 80’s.

In general people enjoy a higher standard of living/creature comforts and education and health services are better, but people also expect a higher standard of living and push themselves harder as family units to achieve this standard of living. Not sure that people are any happier though, as people in any given generation tend to be happy with what they have got, as long as is is in tune with their peers.


#15

Getting diagnosed with most forms of cancer in the 80’s was like receiving a death sentence. Survival rates are much better now as are areas like heart surgeries or dental care.


#16

@Epicurus
On the subject of air pollution:
rte.ie/news/world/2019/0227 … s-in-2015/

So, you may well be right; though I think lead was an equal danger, what with the madness, crime levels etc. and dirty coal before that. Still, “better” doesn’t mean perfect; do I think air quality is better than it was? Yes, but the cities are still not good, particularly as you say, where lots of diesels are driven.


#17

In the 80’s inflation caused a lot of hardship with wages chasing goods but the upside of this was peoples mortgage payments shrank as a proportion of net income.
If inflation had averaged 3% and general wage inflation had chased it then my mortgage would be relatively much smaller today. The ruination I perceive is the generation behind me locked out of home ownership coupled with weak tenant protection. I know hindsight is great, but the missed opportunity was not establishing large social housing schemes in 2010/11 but of course Simon trots out the line that ‘We are building communities’, social engineering led by civil servants, even the USSR could have done better.


#18

2010/11 should have been a reset which allowed land to be bought up cheaply and developed at a profit. As a result of various corporate welfare schemes, sponsored by the taxpayer, indviduals and firms who normally would have gone bankrupt (which is healthy capitalism) were kept afloat and held onto land they paid bubble era prices for. Now 10 years later the prices they need to charge for houses built are astronomical as they are building on land they overpaid for years ago.

Our government/capital city cannot provide the infrastructure for its citizens, from the housing crisis, to traffic gridlock to effluent being ejected into Dublin bay because the processing plant is operating 20% over capacity. And all the indications are that its getting worse not better.

Our health system despite having one of the highest spends in the OECD (based on GNI or GNP as about 20% of our GDP figure is fresh air) and one of the youngest populations in Europe does not even come close to providing the level of service for what we invest.

Our national debt is also huge (€42000 per citizen which only the US and Japan exceed) and our tax take is heavily dependent on corporate tax which is highly mobile in today’s world.

Our public sector pay and pensions bill has skyrocketed again and is completely unsustainable. Recent reports put the liability of future public sector pensions as €114.5 billion - to be paid by an ever decreasing percentage of younger workers in the population.

The future liability of our state pension had recently been estimated as €231 billion - also to be paid by an ever decreasing percentage of younger workers in the population.

We have done f all with regards to climate change so far and now will be left making more painful late adjustments while probably paying fines due to not meeting our emissions targets.

I could go on and on and on but basically I think we are fcuked and its only a matter of time before our profligacy* catches up with us again.

Happy Wednesday

*our politicians profligacy but our “any sweets for me?” electorate are as much to blame


#19

+1 This country is in tatters. Emigration is the best solution.


#20

Ahh, so the 80’s solution it is, with its 30% emigration rate. Or more like 80% emigration rate from where I’m from.