may predict further fall in house prices owing to the new insolvency laws, with a fresh wave of houses hitting the market owing to a huge number of repossessions
Buy a house tomorrow and re-sell a week after. If you get less money that what you paid for, then it wasn’t a good time to buy.
Let me know how you get on with this experiment. Good luck!
I don’t really understand this question - if indeed it is a question. The thread title and the first post seem to be contradictory. (Punctuation and capitals sometimes helps to make things clearer.)
Yes…and no. Dublin still thinks it is London. The reality by the next bailout could be Cyprus.
I am very happy sitting it out. There is nothing in the macro picture that makes me in the slightest bit worried.
A) You have enough money to buy a house and sufficient job and income security to meet any repayments
B) You know of a house you’d like to own and can obtain it at a price that satisfies A)
Then yes it’s a good time to buy.
Ignore where the market is going when it’s increasing and ignore where it’s going when it’s decreasing, speculation is a tough game even for experts devoting all their time to it. All that matters for you is what you can afford, your own sense of value and what’s available to you.
This is my take also
In the absence of very high inflation please tell me how prices can rise over the medium term as a country’s economy continues to collapse
If I’m wrong I’m wrong
The macro picture seems to involve China and the US supporting Germany in ensuring the Euro doesn’t fail - if only because it suits their own, hugely more significant export book(s).
Whatever about the extent of that particular play, I wouldn’t get too hung up on the internal fundamentals of a peripheral non-player like us. We’re along for whatever the bigger boys decide the ride happens to be. Heck, we might even do well out of it…
‘Ignore the market’
Have you bought recently or something?
is now a good time to buy?
A hell of a lot better than 2005 however **what appears at this time **to have been the bottom of the market would have meant buying in Nov 2011-Mar 2012 when there was very little appetite for property purchase and an over supply of property clogging up the pages of myhome.ie & DAFT.This has now reversed in Dublin.
I remember a good few years ago Fadalease posting on Daft saying that no one rings a bell at the bottom of a market,time will tell however if this bottom has indeed been reached.
Depends what and where you want to buy.
Confidence, it is all about confidence - and the country still has a lot of work out to come.
"The NCB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 48.6 in March from 51.5 in February, below the 50 line dividing growth from contraction for the first time since February last year.
Manufacturing contributes around one quarter of Ireland’s gross domestic product, according to World Bank figures. But, it fell back last month amid reports of weaker demand.
New orders decreased for the second time in the past three months during March, with fresh orders from the UK declining as sterling weakened against the euro. As a result of lower new orders, manufacturing production decreased in March after rising for ten consecutive months.
With business on the decline, manufacturers also reduced employment, the second time in the past three months in which that has been the case. The decline in staffing levels was “solid”, according to NCB, and the fastest since October 2011. "
Would either of you like to explain yourselves or are you just going to argue by emoticon?
People looking for somewhere to live should purchase property they can afford and want to live in long-term. Mixing market speculation into this decision distorts things and leads to people buying property they can’t afford, don’t want or both because they believe conditions will change in their favour in the future.
There are far better speculative options out there than property.
Buying a house is a huge commitment, I think even the amateur benefits from some form of analysis and speculation before shelling out.
Your post just made me react by assuming you had bought recently, as it smelled slightly of being more about you than the OP. I am more than happy to be corrected and will again apologise thus.
By “enough money”, do you mean that you have sufficient cash/savings on hand to buy a house?
Ah yes, the wonderful “market” that has been entirely in evidence every single season of this last twenty years or so. Perhaps if we all say it enough, ‘the market’ will eventually prevail over political, economic, and social orchestrations.
Assuming someone has done all the other work of figuring out their property transaction sure they could add an extra consideration for large movements in the market over the short term but that’s not what most people do is it? They start with “Where’s the market going?” and try to follow it either up or down and that’s a part of why property in Ireland is such a minefield - most of the market participants have no idea what they want or what they’re doing, they just want (or don’t want) what everyone else does.
People should be starting by determining what their purchasing power in relation to property is. Most people don’t know they just go with whatever the bank tells them. Next they should figure out what it is they want from property ownership and whether that’s available in their price range. Then they start to look at individual properties and see if they represent value at their asking prices, again most people don’t know they just go with “10% below asking” or “Well it’s 40% cheaper than it used to be…”
I agree completely property is a big commitment, but the yearly movement of property prices is a tiny component of it.
Enough money for a deposit, expenses incurred, whatever work needs doing, furniture etc. Enough income security to handle interest rates at around 7% comfortably and beyond less comfortably though tolerably.
Absolutely right. That’s the crux of it right there. As you say, the problems come when people allow others to tell them what they should think. Even other ‘pinsters’ in the WIW threads etc.
As an aside, it is ironic that in this supposedly post-religious age of reason and science and ‘secularism’, that we have invented this spectre called “the market”. - On the cloudy vapour of our fears, our imagination throws vast distorted shadows of ourselves, and we are duly terrified; and the more we cringe before it, the more the spectre stoops to crush us.
The paradox is that if everyone did as you suggest, trusted in our own senses and judgement, rather than what the banks and newspapers and other pinsters told them, that would actually be a much truer “market”! Of course, the challenge of freeing minds from the manipulative grip of the property industrial complex in all its ubiquity and deviousness is probably the essential consideration.
Is now a good time to buy?
Various relations, friends and work colleagues who pay passing attention to affairs will tell you ‘sure now is a great time to buy… it’s a buyer’s market!’.
If you start actively looking to buy you’ll realise this is horse shit.
Prices seem like they have to fall further to become affordable for young families yet the country is doomed if they do because he tab will have to be picked up by taxes, savings or pension funds and down the spiral we continue.