Is supply coming on?


#1

Watching new houses on MyHome.ie.

There seems to be an upswing in Dublin properties advertised today. I don’t want to rush to any conclusion but does anybody else sense that there is some supply coming on now?

EAs talk about houses being released in February/March because the longer days allow them to be shown with more daylight. In my opinion, the ones released now will steal a march on the ones being released in a few more weeks.


#2

Are they mostly from the same each? Sometimes they resubmit their whole portfolio to generate interest and be at the front of the queue?


#3

They seem to be random. And I have never seen them before.

Or maybe they are just not very memorable. :angry:


#4

Today there were droves of new properties on the market - I can’t remember the last time I have seen them come on like that, but I wouldn’t get too excited, it is probably just a once off and one day of abundance of supply will have no affect on the constant price increases.


#5

I’ve had the subjective feeling (is there any other kind) that there were more signs on the roads I walk in the past couple of weeks. Sale-agreeds being replaced by new for-sales pretty quickly.
Just an impression mind


#6

There was feck all coming on in Nov/Dec, who’d have thunk that plenty would come on in January for the selling/buying season? Same every year. There’s as many going sale agreed - 6 houses sale agreed local to me in 10 days (107 sales last year in total). Also one agent gave new listings to 2 houses they’d advertised just before xmas.

Also maybe look here;

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=43919&hilit=chronic&start=210

It’s gone from 5k properties in Dublin city per daft (read through thread from the start) - to €4k, to 3306 noted by Imper on 19/04/13, then 3,159 on 27/08/13 as noted by me.

Today - well its 2,314.

Have they all moved to myhome.ie?

Well again it was noted as 3,606 on 27/08/13 and it’s 2,646 today.

Facts eh?

Remember it’s not just supply thats needed, its supply that outstrips demand in order to increase stock (and there was nearly 10k (will break it when PPR updates further) properties sold in Dublin in 2013).

So even to get back to 5k properties, which was discussed as a chronic shortage, supply of 10k - 12k properties is needed this year (assuming sales of 8k-10k - which of course may be higher/lower).


#7

Depends on time to sell, 5k might be fine if the average time an ad appears in 4 months.


#8

I’ve seen very little coming on in my area of interest (4-bed detached), ostensibly less than last year at this time


#9

I haven’t really looked at these figures before on the basis that I’m not sure how useful they are - as pointed out above it depends how quickly houses are selling.

It looks like roughly 10000 houses will sell in Dublin 2013.

At the moment the figures for sale are

Daft - 2306
MyHome 2619

I would guess there is a fair amount of overlap between the two figures so lets take a conservative 3500 houses for sale. That’s about 4 months stock at last years sales rates. The other element is the Sale Agreeds which shows us what percentage of stock is in the process of being sold -

Daft - 2230
MyHome - 1652

I find the Daft figure amazing - maybe they don’t update as frequently as MyHome. I’m going to suggest that there are 2000 houses in the sales process at present, a fifth of the annual sales which suggests that it takes two and a half months for a sale to go through - which doesn’t seem unlikely in this country.

So in terms of stock we would appear to have an excess of supply in that we have 4 months of stock and it takes 2 and a half months for a sale to go through. I would have thought that in a tight market where houses were being snapped up the two ratios would be closer together … but I’m not an accountant.

The other issue that I’ve thought about is 'What constitutes a normal number of sales in Dublin?". According to the census there are 248,750 owner occupied dwellings and 155,396 rented dwellings and 39,000 vacant dwellings in Dublin City (census.cso.ie/areaprofiles/areap … Code=35001). The total number of dwellings was 427,361 (excluding the vacant ones and including those where people didn’t say what type they were in).

The question is how many of these would you expect to see on the market in a typical year if we had a normal market?
At the moment we see about 10,000 - that’s about 2.5% of the total number excluding vacant (or 2% if you include the vacant ones). This suggests that a house changes hands every 40 years. Maybe that’s correct I don’t know - I remember an EA saying to me that he thought houses in the area that we were looking in (Terenure) changed hands roughly every 25 years but that was twenty years ago. 25 years would imply 4% or about 17,000 per year, 33 years or 3% would imply 13,000 per year. I would think that family homes would change hands less frequently - I would think it would be nearer 40 than 25. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Is this just an increase in demand rather than a constriction of supply?


#10

:open_mouth: You better let everybody else know we have excess stock. I wonder why prices are rising so?

Do you really believe there should be only one unit of stock (no matter what type, price, condition it is) for every day it takes to complete a sale?


#11

I was thinking about this recently, I could not find how often a house change hands in Ireland, but in the US and UK it seems to be between 15-20 years. Given we we have 1.65m private households, that would mean there would need to be about 85k changing hands per year for an average of 20 year ownership of home. Either Ireland has a much higher length of ownership or the amount of sales recently is chronically low and will have to rise significantly.


#12

Passed sandyford industrial estate yesterday.
Great to see one of the large unfinished buildings in the process of being completed.
Looks big enough for c200 apartments.


#13

It is possible for supply to increase and prices to do likewise, if growth in demand (and credit) outpaces supply.

During the noughties bubble the volume of sales went up with prices. I haven’t seen a graph of transactions vs prices for these years but I would imagine there’s a close correlation. I believe the volume of sales peaked nationwide in 2006, while prices peaked the following year.


#14

Yep - looking at this without the wine goggles I’m not sure what I was trying to say here. What I was looking for was some kind of ratio that would allow us to see if supply was rising or falling - perhaps somebody well-versed in the arts of stock control could contribute.


#15

The story with this block is that it contains c.75 apartments. The local gossip appears to indicate that it is earmarked by DLRCC for social housing.

If true, not a single newly built apartment will reach the sales market. Oh yes, building was to be completed by December 2013 - final completion date is unclear at this time.


#16

I heard they would be leased privately by NAMA but either way, at least they are not selling them to the highest bidders like some sort of dirty capitalist.


#17

The supply will hit the market when - and only when - the government/NAMA/banks decide it does. We could knock 10% back off the Dublin market and release the head of steam the market is building if we wanted to. That’s not the plan though, the plan is to drive prices up to bail out the banks by the back door.


#18

The supply they control yes, but they don’t control all houses in the country. It has been discussed before but they’re not THAT good. They’re rather incompetent actually.


#19

That said, I was expecting a glut of properties coming into the market this season due to the perceived bonanza and so far it has been absolutely tiny. Worse January for supply as far as I can remember.


#20

I would have thought the banks are equally complicit with NAMA in constricting supply. If they continually fail to address arrears especially in BTL then there’s no hope for market price discovery.