I haven’t really looked at these figures before on the basis that I’m not sure how useful they are - as pointed out above it depends how quickly houses are selling.
It looks like roughly 10000 houses will sell in Dublin 2013.
At the moment the figures for sale are
Daft - 2306
I would guess there is a fair amount of overlap between the two figures so lets take a conservative 3500 houses for sale. That’s about 4 months stock at last years sales rates. The other element is the Sale Agreeds which shows us what percentage of stock is in the process of being sold -
Daft - 2230
MyHome - 1652
I find the Daft figure amazing - maybe they don’t update as frequently as MyHome. I’m going to suggest that there are 2000 houses in the sales process at present, a fifth of the annual sales which suggests that it takes two and a half months for a sale to go through - which doesn’t seem unlikely in this country.
So in terms of stock we would appear to have an excess of supply in that we have 4 months of stock and it takes 2 and a half months for a sale to go through. I would have thought that in a tight market where houses were being snapped up the two ratios would be closer together … but I’m not an accountant.
The other issue that I’ve thought about is 'What constitutes a normal number of sales in Dublin?". According to the census there are 248,750 owner occupied dwellings and 155,396 rented dwellings and 39,000 vacant dwellings in Dublin City (census.cso.ie/areaprofiles/areap … Code=35001). The total number of dwellings was 427,361 (excluding the vacant ones and including those where people didn’t say what type they were in).
The question is how many of these would you expect to see on the market in a typical year if we had a normal market?
At the moment we see about 10,000 - that’s about 2.5% of the total number excluding vacant (or 2% if you include the vacant ones). This suggests that a house changes hands every 40 years. Maybe that’s correct I don’t know - I remember an EA saying to me that he thought houses in the area that we were looking in (Terenure) changed hands roughly every 25 years but that was twenty years ago. 25 years would imply 4% or about 17,000 per year, 33 years or 3% would imply 13,000 per year. I would think that family homes would change hands less frequently - I would think it would be nearer 40 than 25. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Is this just an increase in demand rather than a constriction of supply?