Is supply coming on?


#21

They control most things really

Biggest landlord in the state
Biggest tenant in the state
Control of planning
Control of the banks
Control of the Personal Insolvency process (repo’s)
Can stimulate supply through e.g. Site Valuation tax - but doesn’t
Can stimulate demand through tax incentives - and does, using several measures

They can’t control the fact that people die, which is why the only houses for sale seem to be executors sales.

There was a brief window during which property was priced affordably in Dublin. I missed out on buying then because I was fucked over by a vendor (the same c**t is probably now negotiating a write-down on his huge BTL debts, paid for by you and me). Now we are back to our own brand of property madness - high prices, propped up by taxpayer money. They seem to be doing a decent job of pushing prices up in Dublin, aren’t they?


#22

These are the same geniuses who brought us the “soft landing”.
The fact that they have found a weakness in the fabric capable of forming a bubble just means that it’ll pop sooner.


#23

… with more losses to be socialized?


#24

Any thoughts as to what will bring a popping of the latest bubble?


#25

Trouble in Emerging markets .
China is showing signs of a troubled Banking system.
Lots of questionable large scale investments going around and the returns not being
quite as good as anticipated.
Like a lot of things in Asia things aren’t quite as they seem.
Also maybe last years stock Market gains were just one big giant Dead cat bounce.
Turkey raised rates yesterday due to exposure to the East , are our good friends in the West next.


#26

If people think that prices are beginning to rise, sellers are more likely to hold off a bit longer until the prices actually have significantly risen.


#27

Social unrest in Brazil during the world cup, especially if they under-perform.


#28

Scientists find DNA of first-ever bubonic plague, warn of new outbreaks

rt.com/news/dna-first-bubonic-plague-278/


#29

In one word: Reality.

To be more specific: (1) a cold dose of reality combined with (2) some return in supply.


#30

Agree with you re bailing out via the back door. The public won’t like any obvious cash being thrown at the banks, most don’t realise that high prices do the exact same thing (but of course penalises younger people more yet again). They’re happy to let their newspaper of choice be their opinion. Moaning about “hikes” in every other cost but celebrating “surging” house prices and trumpeting the “recovery”

While we might not see bottom prices again its quite refreshing to hear more people say there’s no value out there despite the fact they could afford not just something but something decent enough. There’s also a surprising number of people angry that there’s no repercussions of not bothering to pay your mortgage. The Famine nonsense peddled by the VIs doesn’t appear to wash with most ordinary people in my experience, just that the VIs have a greater voice which is possibly distorting politicians assessment of the situation


#31

Agree wholeheartedly with every word here, I too am sensing that perpetually rising prices are not being readily applauded by the majority of people in this country despite the VIs attempts to paint public opinion.

It now seems that as soon as one sale occurs on a street, the EA’s immediately bump up the price of the next closest property in the area and it’s happening at an alarming rate and house hunters are getting panic’d in to paying higher prices. I personally don’t think this will end well and I think it might reach a climax in the next 6 months.


#32

Who knows. We can only speculate but risk factors include the crippled Irish banks and unravelling the arrears knot.


#33

I noticed something funny yesterday.

If you look at MyHome.ie Advanced search and select the option “added within the last 24 hours”, you never get any houses on a Saturday. This is because EAs have gotten into a rhythm of posting from Monday to Thursday and know that there is no point in posting new properties on a Friday or over the weekend.

Yesterday, I did my regular “last 24 hours” in Dublin, expecting no hits. (Ok, I admit I am a property geek.) There were pages of hits. Admittedly, this includes the new round of Allsop (Catalogue due to be released on February 4th). But it also includes a whole slew from Sherry Fitz, Hunters and others.

I know it is not scientific, but it is one more coincidence that tells me there is a wave of supply coming on.


#34

Just to say a lot of SF stock is now being ‘refreshed’ so appears to be new when it is just getting a bump - this seems to be the case with yesterday’s/Friday’s. Hunters also do the same.


#35

Every now and then the EA’s bump their whole portfolio for the benefit of the ‘last 24hrs brigade’

It works too


#36

Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that they refresh their postings. It would be flattering to think they do it to catch out Moaner.

This also has the benefit of pushing them near the top of any list that is sorted by date.

Still, it is the first time I saw properties coming on from Saturday.


#37

I am pretty sure Hunters are Allsop, they sell their non auction houses through Hunters. ie. The good ones :slight_smile:
I rang Hunters once and the woman kinda answered the phone as allsop and then corrected herself. I asked her about it and she said they were the same parent company or something. If you search Hunter’s ads you can sometimes see a mention of Allsop.


#38

Hunters is a subsidiary of Space, which is the co-operator of the Allsop Space auctions, so they are effectively very linked to one another!


#39

It will be interesting to see whether all the properties that went sale agreed last year do in fact sell.

The impression that I’m getting is that with a lot of properties that are currently let, landlords are looking at an equation whereby they can either sell with some negative equity outstanding, or hold on for another year or two wherein they get:

  1. supernormal rents due to lack of supply;
  2. tracker rates or at least very low rates; and
  3. the expectation of further capital increases.

From the buyers point of view, if the sale drags out they might get cold feet about the market!


#40

We’re still not at a point where we’ll see any impact from request for voluntary sales from the banks. Before anyone asks, I don’t know when that will be, but it’s not yet. It won’t be an avalanche but it’ll certainly add to national supply.