Is supply coming on?

+1. A slow week this week.

Can’t see many people put their properties on until September.
Market cools considerably from June onwards.

Latest Dublin Figures from the PPR:
Comparing January, February and March 2015 so far (3399) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 57% increase. I would suspect this is pretty close to the final figure for this quarter.
April so far are 911 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - an 18% increase on last year
May so far are 203 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013))

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

May 06: MyHome - 5204 for sale 2163 sale agreed; Daft - 4323 for sale 2880 sale agreed
May 20: MyHome - 5424 for sale 2271 sale agreed; Daft - 4525 for sale 2939 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
May 08: MyHome - 3303 for sale 2082 sale agreed; Daft - 2788 for sale 2359 sale agreed
May 22: MyHome - 3420 for sale 2180 sale agreed; Daft - 2912 for sale 2490sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)

Thanks Mike, it’s good to have the stats.

It’s probably one of two things happening:

a) my expectations have increased over the last while and I’m now not happy with the alerts I’m getting, thus feeling I’m getting less of them
or
b) There are less houses for sale that match my particular alert criteria.

Thanks for the stats!
Seems like increases are picking up pace with more than 200 more ads on both Daft and myhome.
Do you have a trajectory for these figures?
I’m interested to see how the increases over the last 6-9 months compare to this:
https://i58.tinypic.com/2zs1nxf.jpg

My daily email alert has a lot of houses but very few in the range I’m interested it.
Earlier this year, most emails had at least 1-2 houses that I’d make a phone call about. That’s now dropping to 1-2 a week.

However, I note that myhome stock is consistently increasing. We’re up at 5,430 now, which is significantly up from last year so the stock is being added but outside of our search criteria.

Its the great delusional stand-off of 2015. Asking prices are laughable, the sooner people stop sniffing their farts and figure out what’s going on the better.

889 on view per myhome

I see that when you add sale agreed and for sale together, that there is very little difference between Myhome and Daft.
Do you know if this is a new development, and more to the point, what does it mean? Are Myhome leaving houses on when they are actually sale agreed, or is Daft slow to mark sale agreeds as sold? Or something else entirely?

The “Sale Agreed” total numbers on MyHome are essentially meaningless.

Getting a few more alerts in last couple of days. A few interesting ones that are approaching what I’d consider to be value too. Keep 'em coming!

The last few days have seen email alerts with so many listings that gmail can’t actually list them all in the email and you need to open a separate window to view the ones at the end.

A lot of muck though. Only clicked on one ad and that was a price drop from insane to merely silly pricing.

Absolutely. I only started collecting these figures as I thought they might correlate with the sold figures in the PPR. For a while it looked like the Sale Agreed figures might equal the next three months sales but there was no correlation as far as I could see. There is an incentive for MyHome and Daft to ensure that their ‘For Sale’ lists are up to date since that’s what their main line of business is - ‘Sale Agreed’ is really just additional advertising - showing that they do sell stuff.

The ‘For Sale’ figures don’t necessarily equal the stock either. The stock is some combination of the Daft and MyHome For Sale figures (plus a , presumably small, amount of stuff that doesn’t appear on these sites). A proportion of houses are listed on both - I don’t know what that proportion is or whether it fluctuates over time.

The PPR is the only true measure of house sales that we have and that can retrospectively suggest what the stock of saleable houses was. But we could still have high levels of supply and low levels of sales - in that case prices should presumably fall.

:unamused: Sale Agreed figures are a leading indicator of volumes.

The value is in the age distribution of the “sale agreed” and how this changes over time. For example the number of properties listed as “sale agreed” in the last 4 weeks is 56.

Now does that fact indicate a slow down in the market or is it “essentially meaningless” :slight_smile:

The number listed as sale agreed at any point in time is essentially meaningless. The number going into the sale agreed state is interesting. We’ve had this discussion before I believe.

Which discussion is that
(a) sale agreed at any point in time is essentially meaningless; or
(b) The number going into the sale agreed state is interesting?

Well the second one is the basis of the very first bet I won off you :slight_smile: And the first fell out of the tracking I did to win the bet if I recall.

I think Sale Agreed could be a leading indicator of sales. And you are correct to state that the additions to the data is the important figure. However my point was about the accuracy of the data - you state a figure of 46 properties added in the last 4 weeks. To which listing do you refer - MyHome?, Daft?, both? If both did you deduplicate the figure. The other issue is the incentive on the providers of the data to keep the ‘Sale Agreed’ data up to date - I don’t believe there is much incentive to do this - not as much as to keep the ‘For Sale’ data up to date. 46 properties gone Sale Agreed in 4 weeks seems very low to me - it’ll be interesting to see what shows up in the PPR for that period and compare - that would be a good way to test the accuracy of the data and therefore its value as a predictor. I keep fortnightly records from the PPR in this thread and properties appear to be being sold at the rate of about 100 per week for the last couple of months - 46 in 4 weeks would certainly be an indicator of a serious change.

BTW I felt that the eye-rolling was a bit unnecessary. I had explained my position on Sale Agreed in the post - I try as much as possible to deal in facts on this thread although I don’t mind idle speculation and a bit of banter

Sorry Metalmike,

The eye-rolling was targeted at Mantissa’s and not your comment.

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 so far (3413) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 58% increase. I would suspect this is pretty close to the final figure for this quarter.
April so far are 1193 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - a 55% increase on last year
May so far are 561 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013))

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

May 20: MyHome - 5424 for sale 2271 sale agreed; Daft - 4525 for sale 2939 sale agreed
Jun 03: MyHome - 5458 for sale 2430 sale agreed; Daft - 4533 for sale 3078 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
May 22: MyHome - 3420 for sale 2180 sale agreed; Daft - 2912 for sale 2490 sale agreed
Jun 04: MyHome - 3525 for sale 2294 sale agreed; Daft - 2940 for sale 2551 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)