Is supply coming on?


#1064

56C reduced by 30K (5.22%) to 535K


#1065

How on earth are those classed as Blackrock? Sure, you’re practically in Cornelscourt’s car park.


#1066

Oddly enough, it may well be.
Blackrock is the most ambidextrous of postal addresses.


#1067

Does it depend on where the mail sorting office is?


#1068

At 842 on view as of this eve…not bad


#1069

The ‘For Sale’ figures should be taken with a grain of salt. We’ve only started looking at houses over the past three weeks but we have been genuinely and actively looking. I’ve been told that about five properties I’ve enquired about so far were ‘Sale Agreed’ even though they weren’t listed as such on MyHome. One agent even told me that they don’t list properties as ‘Sale Agreed’ online. I can’t remember who that was (and I’m too lazy to look back over my emails). I was also told one ‘For Sale’ listed property was ‘on hold’ which I took to mean the vendor was not in a position to sell at present. And with one property that was listed as ‘For Sale’ I was told it was Sale Agreed and then two weeks later I got an email to say they were having a viewing this Saturday.

Take the above anecdotal evidence for what it’s worth…


#1070

Blackrock is a fairly large townland. I was surprised recently to discover in another thread that large parts of Leopardstown are technically Blackrock.


#1071

Yes indeed it is but it depends on the mail sorting office too. Sometimes (seemingly randomly) an post tell my parents their correct address is blackrock despite them living near hobart and mays in monkstown. Just a sorting office efficiency for an post i presume. You can’t trust an post to tell you where you live and you certainly can’t trust an ea to tell you where you will be living. Postcodes should change that. Everyone can live anywhere they can imagine as long as the postcode is right!


#1072

Within Dublin City An Post have completely stopped using town names like Sandymount or Clontarf. It’s all just postal district numbers now.


#1073

rte.ie/news/business/2015/0608/706582-construction-pmi/

Keep it coming.
:smiley:


#1074

Hmm. Wonder how applicable this is to the market as a whole?

ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f5b7cb3a-0b91-11e5-994d-00144feabdc0.html

What the report says about the Barker Review it refers to doesn’t seem to be backed up by what I can find on it (on a quick search).


#1075

If you look at planning permissions granted stats from CSO cso.ie/multiquicktables/quic … id=bhq02_2 you will notice that once they started to drop, so did house prices. Recently there is more activity and house prices are higher.


#1076

Possibly optimistic thinking on my part but it feels like I’m getting a lot more alert emails over the last couple of weeks. Anyone else?


#1077

Publically available planning permission data is available annually a year in arrears. It is available for houses and apartments.

Publically available housing building data is available quarterly a quarter in arrears. It is available for housing units only.

Property price data is available monthly a month in arrears. It is available for houses and apartments.

Housing unit building data is based on when the property is first connected to the electricity network which may be some time before it is sold. So there will be a further lag between the number of housing units built in a given quarter and when they are sold and appear in any house price index.

There is an obvious lag between numbers of units granted planning permission when those units are built.

This first chart shows national house and apartment price data, planning permission units granted and housing unit built.


The right vertical axis applies to planned and built units. The left vertical axis applies to property price index data.

In general housing units planned and built have lagged prices. This may be because of factors such as:

• Large number of vacant/unsold units
• Lack of developer funding
• Greater controls in the previous lax and profligate planning process
• Changes in building regulations – unit size, especially for apartments, other regulatory changes - affecting developer costs and profitability

The second chart shows the situation for Dublin.

New units built did not track increasing prices from 2005 to 2007.

Numbers of apartments planned do not track current increases in apartment prices.

Numbers of units built do not track current increases in apartment prices.

These comments obviously only apply to new housing units. The price of second-hand units will be different – both higher and lower – than that of new units.


#1078

Nice work CP. Thanks.


#1079

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 so far (3426) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 58% increase. I would suspect this is pretty close to the final figure for this quarter.
April so far are 1307 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - a 70% increase on last year - April figures are probably complete at this stage
May so far are 1058 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013)) - a 15% increase on last year
June so far are 354 (compared to 1183 (2014), 723 (2013))

April to June so far are 2719 compared to 2879 in 2014. Given that in every other year sales have increased on a monthly basis in April, May and June it’s difficult to see less than 4000 sales in the 2nd Quarter - if this lower bound is the case then this would represent a 40% increase in sales over last year.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Jun 03: MyHome - 5458 for sale 2430 sale agreed; Daft - 4533 for sale 3078 sale agreed
Jun 24: MyHome - 5541 for sale 2543 sale agreed; Daft - 4618 for sale 3130 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Jun 04: MyHome - 3525 for sale 2294 sale agreed; Daft - 2940 for sale 2551 sale agreed
Jun 20: MyHome - 3665 for sale 2330 sale agreed; Daft - 3057 for sale 2566 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1080

It doesnt seem like all that long ago we were rejoicing at the fact supply reached 5000. What are the chances we will surpass 6000 this year and if so how long?


#1081

Last year houses for sale on MyHome and Daft increased until July declined until September then peaked in November.

I presume you are talking about MyHome For Sale figures when you say 5000 however houses are for sale on MyHome and Daft and while there is doubtless duplication between these figures it is impossible to tell how much and whether that ratio changes.


#1082

Yeah that’s the myhome figures I’m talking about. Far from scientific but I consider the Daft figures to be proportional to the myhome figures so I assume the myhome changes to be indicative of the overall market changes.


#1083

Quick nugget comparing supply (for sale on myhome) and demand (sales in PPR) in bottom 95% vs top 5% of Dublin market…

<€1m properties:
5174 (93.5% of total) for sale, 5049 on 2015 PPR, ~5 months supply

€1-2m properties
269 (4.9% of total) for sale, 89 (1.72% of total) on 2015 PPR, ~15 months supply

€2m+ properties
87 (1.6% of total) for sale, 22 (0.21% of total) on 2015 PPR, ~20 months supply

PPR data excludes not full price sales and adds on VAT where applicable.

It’s possible that properties at different price levels take more or less time to close but I have no data for that.

It would be interesting to plot this over time, to see whether some relationship between supply/demand balance at different levels is a leading indicator of price shifts, but I don’t have the myhome data.