Is supply coming on?


#1084

Interesting. Looks like the higher end of the market is priced too high and it needs to come down, which will free things up for the middle/lower price ranges.


#1085

Possibly. Or maybe people with expensive houses advertise them more on the basis that it only takes one foreign moneybags to fall in love with it at a ludicrous asking and you’re quids in.

That’s why I’d like to do the same with different points in time, e.g. mid-2011, mid-2012, mid-2013, mid-2014.


#1086

I don’t think the basic comparison (in the first post about this) works at all. A typical EA might be willing to show a 80k flat to prospective buyers maybe five or six times and then wants done with it or out of it. With a 3 million luxury house the EA is willing to work it for many months or even years for the big payoff at the final sale. So the whole premise of the comparison seems wrong.


#1087

I see that myhome for Dublin has stalled at 546 pages. That’s it for the summer but I wonder how things will go in the autumn re new stock/sales. Some of that stock has been sitting there a long time.


#1088

The daily “new to myhome” stock has deteriorated rapidly in the last two weeks. Nothing coming on in South Dublin it seems.


#1089

Just a seasonal thing maybe. Lots of folks are on holidays or about to be in the next month or so.


#1090

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 so far (3427) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 58% increase. I would suspect this is pretty close to the final figure for this quarter.
April so far are 1310 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - a 70% increase on last year - April figures are probably complete at this stage
May so far are 1117 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013)) - a 21% increase on last year
June so far are 654 (compared to 1183 (2014), 723 (2013))

April to June so far are 3081 compared to 2879 in 2014. Given that in every other year sales have increased on a monthly basis in April, May and June it’s difficult to see less than 4000 sales in the 2nd Quarter - if this lower bound is the case then this would represent a 40% increase in sales over last year.**But see my comment at the end - it’s quite possible that May may not be higher than April if 1058 turns out to be 90% of the final figure.
**
Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Jun 24: MyHome - 5541 for sale 2543 sale agreed; Daft - 4618 for sale 3130 sale agreed
Jul 08: MyHome - 5463 for sale 2598 sale agreed; Daft - 4589 for sale 3225 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Jun 20: MyHome - 3665 for sale 2330 sale agreed; Daft - 3057 for sale 2566 sale agreed
Jul 03: MyHome - 3804 for sale 2308 sale agreed; Daft - 3077 for sale 2738 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)

Just looking at the figures this month I’m getting a feeling of a slowdown in the number of sales happening. Although sales in May are still higher than last May - we’re now 6 weeks after the end of May which is usually the point at which 90% of sales for a month are in the register - that would put May’s sales at maybe 30% over last year - much less than 50/70% increases we saw in the first 4 months. There are still plenty of properties for sale so there are either issues with the quality of properties for sale or with the number of people able/willing to buy at the prices offered.


#1091

Now at 531 pages.
My guess is it reaches a low of 480 pages, (4,800 properties) towards end of August and then starts to build back up in the autumn


#1092

Myhome is currently doing some funky stuff with things disappearing from regions. Beware bare page counts.


#1093

ah here :unamused:


#1094

Are you implying I am not correct?


#1095

Not at all Mantissa, you are always right, even when you are wrong you are right. :smiley:

About half of the posts in this thread are based on myhome for sales counts for dublin, including many of your contributions Mantissa.
As soon as someone using the same metric, points out a trend which is at variance to your narrative on the property market, you employ the ‘look over there tactic’ to diminish the value of the point made.


#1096

Are you on drugs?

Around Sunday/Monday MyHome’s web interface started behaving erratically when it comes to categorising entires into regions. For example, the “firehose” view of new properties would show a particular property, but filtering by the appropriate region would omit it and show nothing al all for the previous 2-3 days.

This was clearly a bug. It does not seem to be happening today. However, there was a period of time when MyHome was not displaying all properties in all regions in some views. So depending on when you got your data, it may or may not have been correct.

I realise that no good deed goes unpunished, but before you cast aspersions on people who spend a lot of time scraping MyHome you might want to actually look into how the site works, and appreciate the fact that I was alerting you to a particular bug. Of course it’s easier to just look at the number of pages printed at the bottom and make snarky remarks online.


#1097

We got no myhome notifications for new properties for a few days until yesterday. Related to that bug?


#1098

Summer holidays


#1099

July is the quietest month of the year.


#1100

Nope. Was able to see houses in our (very wide) search criteria being added here: twitter.com/NewToMyHome
But no alert email for a couple of days.


#1101

Is that from The Waste Land?

:-GC


#1102

Yeah, their email alerts stopped for me for a few days, too. Back now (though still pretty quiet compared to a month ago).


#1103

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 so far (3429) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 58% increase.
April so far are 1314 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - a 70% increase on last year
May so far are 1167 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013)) - a 21% increase on last year- May figures are probably complete at this stage
June so far are 1236 (compared to 1183 (2014), 723 (2013)) – a 4% increase on last year

April to June so far is 3717 (compared to 2878) a 29% increase on last year - it will still be a few weeks before June is complete but the interesting thing is the dropoff in May figures – in other years sales have risen steadily over April, May and June

July so far is 330 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Jul 08: MyHome - 5463 for sale 2598 sale agreed; Daft - 4589 for sale 3225 sale agreed
Jul 22: MyHome - 5303 for sale 2600 sale agreed; Daft - 4474 for sale 3349 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Jul 03: MyHome - 3804 for sale 2308 sale agreed; Daft - 3167 for sale 2680 sale agreed
Jul 30: MyHome - 3689 for sale 2356 sale agreed; Daft - 3077 for sale 2738 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)