Is supply coming on?


#1104

Thanks.
Appreciate the synopsis.


#1105

Thanks MM.

So more on the market now but similar numbers to last year sale agreed on myhome. Interesting to note a high % of daft properties sale agreed. Any theories on the reasons why this might be?


#1106

The number of sale agreed on myhome at a point in time is meaningless.


#1107

I disagree. It’s indicative of the current state of the market (assuming the sales agreed actually go through). In the latest data it appears there is a lot more stock on the market but lower % of sales.

Why single out myhome? Don’t you consider daft numbers to be similarly meaningless?


#1108

No. The way houses move in and out of the Sale Agreed state on MyHome is unique to the site and makes the number at a point in time completely meaningless. Basically, a large number of properties are never removed once they go Sale Agreed and stay in that state indefinitely. Other agents choose to make some properties as Sold; still others actually remove the property completely once it’s sold. There is no consistency so the number is completely meaningless.

If you want to see an interesting number you need to look at the number going into the sale agreed state over a particular period.

I haven’t done enough scraping of Daft to know exactly how it works there.


#1109

Ok, thanks for the clarification Mantissa. So is it tardiness on the part of many EAs or a practice of myhome to maintain the appearance of having more properties listed as sale agreed than is strictly accurate?

Has it always been the way of myhome?


#1110

5,200 properties for sale on myhome in Dublin.
heading below 5,000 soon?
low point in summer 2014 was 3,620 in mid-August based on metalmike’s figures.

It will be interesting to see what happens supply in the autumn.
Did CBI rules flush a lot of vendors onto market in first half of year?
If so, will this impact supply later in year?


#1111

It is historical. MyHome never used to have a “Sold” status. The agents would mark the property “Sale Agreed” and just leave it like that. After 6 months it would get removed from the index and map. I believe agents could delete the property completely but why would they bother.

About 12-18 months ago (can’t find the date now) MyHome added a “sold” status. However many/most agents don’t bother with it still.

So when a property is marked as “Sale Agreed” it could be any of

  • Sale Agreed
  • Sold
  • Fallen through and withdrawn

#1112

I can confirm that a house I sold in 2012 (I love selling at the bottom of the market) is still on myhome.ie and still parked as sale agreed. Actually, it’s sale agreed, but the headline is that it is “under offer”.
It was at that stage 3 years ago.

TB


#1113

MyHome is back being buggy the last 24 hours. Houses are appearing in the firehose “Recently added” view for Dublin but not in any subarea view. Many recent price changes seem to be missing also – No recent price changes at all showing in “Dublin South” or “Dublin South County” although there are many of them showing in those areas when you select “Dublin”. It’s barked. I suspect some email alerts may not be working either.


#1114

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3429) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 58% increase.
April so far are 1316 (compared to 771 (2014), 622 (2013)) - a 71% increase on last year
May so far are 1174 (compared to 924 (2014), 705 (2013)) - a 27% increase on last year- May figures are probably complete at this stage
June so far are 1419 (compared to 1183 (2014), 723 (2013)) – a 20% increase on last year

April to June so far is 3909 (compared to 2878) a 35% increase on last year - June should be complete in a couple of weeks but the interesting thing is the dropoff in May figures – in other years sales have risen steadily over April, May and June. It does seem as if the dramatic increases in number of sales that we saw in the early part of the year have toned down - but they are still up 20% compared to last year.

July so far is 786 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Jul 22: MyHome - 5303 for sale 2600 sale agreed; Daft - 4474 for sale 3349 sale agreed
Aug 5: MyHome - 5113 for sale 2686 sale agreed; Daft - 4293 for sale 3405 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Jul 30: MyHome - 3689 for sale 2356 sale agreed; Daft - 3077 for sale 2738 sale agreed
Aug 13: MyHome - 3627 for sale 2391 sale agreed; Daft - 3051 for sale 2750 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1115

My guess is the CB regulations pulled demand forward in first Q. A rush of sale agreeds at end of year with completion going through this year.

It’s the same story every year with the imposition or removal of some incentive/ruling. They just end up pulling demand forward by a quarter at the end of the incentive/ruling.


#1116

Not seeing all that much coming on in the past month in my search area D6/ D6W. When would we expect to see supply starting to pick up again?


#1117

I’m told early Sept (by EA’s)


#1118

Guess I’ll enjoy the rest of whats left of the summer before looking too hard again. I can see a lot of stand offs between buyers and vendors over the next few months. Interesting times ahead.


#1119

Plenty of stock coming on in my email alert (all of Dublin) but the overall total stock for Dublin is declining slowly at the moment.


#1120

Looking at the ‘For Sale’ figures that I collected for last year the low point (3627 (MyHome) 3051 (Daft)) was 13th August the figures then rose 10% in September and then fairly steadily to a high on 11th November (4330 (MyHome) 3556 (Daft)). So MyHome rose about 16% and Daft about 14%. If that also happened this year that would suggest MyHome at 5800 and Daft at 4900 in September and MyHome at 6200 and Daft 5200 in November.

Its worth noting that the highest ‘For Sale’ figures for this year so far were on 24th June (5541 (MyHome) 4618 (Daft)). Last year the highest figures up until August were in Late June and the years peak was in November.


#1121

Thanks mm, interesting stats.


#1122


#1123

Probably my busiest two days in the last two months today and yesterday for North Dublin.

Nothing stand out but additional “stock” can’t be a bad thing. I think October will be crucial once we see what happens to the post holiday wave of properties and will be a key indicator of if we’re returning to business as usual with muted/flat growth in prices post CB introduction or if we’re starting to see a trend form in either direction.