Is supply coming on?


#1124

Can anyone tell me the current supply figures from myhome & daft ?
Also, where to find them ?


#1125

Hi Mr A, For MyHome I go in to Search - select Dublin and do Search. Myhome returns pages so I go down to the bottom of the page and select the last page and look at the last number on the page - its 5025 at the moment. I then go back up and click the ‘Sale Agreed’ tab and do the same thing (i.e. look at the last page) - today its 2647

Daft is easier - I just go the front page select Dublin City and do Search. Under the search area on the left hand side you will see the number of properties available - to day its 4250. For Sale Agreed click on ‘Advanced Search’ under the Orange Search box then in the ‘Looking for’ section about half way down the page select ‘Show sale agreed’. Today the figure is 3406.

I have always put a caveat when I quote this figures on my regular analysis. I think it is in the interests of both sites to keep the ‘For Sale’ figures up to data and accurate. The ‘Sale agreed’ I’m not so convinced about - moving from ‘For Sale’ to ‘Sale Agreed’ is probably done regularly - not so sure about ‘Sale Agreed’ to ‘Sold’

What the supply is is also open to question:

  1. Do you add the MyHome and Daft ‘For Sale’ figures? Almost certainly not - there is huge duplication between the sites - but its hard to tell how much there is and does the ratio change. The figures tend to move in step through the year so I think the ratio is fairly fixed
  2. Do you include some of the ‘Sale Agreed’ figures as some of the sales might fall through? Doesnt make sense to me
  3. What percentage of the market to Myhome and Daft cover? I reckon its as close to 100% in Dublin not to matter.

#1126

Thanks very much for that.


#1127

Some EAs update the status on a batch of properties at the same time.
Ray Cooke marked about 20 properties from ‘For Sale’ to ‘Sale Agreed’ today in myhome.


#1128

I wonder what happened with your man Marc Mc Connell coming home from the pub last night and putting about 20 houses on myhome at 5m+

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … al/3300496


#1129

Dublin myhome for sale drops below 5,000.
(4,983 properties listed at the moment)
Equivalent figure about a year ago was about 3,650 (based on metalmike’s posts)
So stock is 38% higher than this time last year.


#1130

Do you know what the delta in stock was last few years Jun 1 vs mid-August? e.g. how weak/strong has the summer been?


#1131

From metalmike’s posts a few pages back

“Jun 24: MyHome - 5541 for sale 2543 sale agreed; Daft - 4618 for sale 3130 sale agreed”


#1132

Sad day when you have to go the Irish Mirror to hear some plain truth.

“The property boom in the capital is cooling down because people can’t afford to buy” - how hard is this to grasp for people?

irishmirror.ie/news/irish-ne … nd-6148242


#1133

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June so far is 3946 (compared to 2878) a 37% increase on last year - I would think this quarter is nearly complete.

July so far is 1123 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))
August so far is 153

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Aug 5: MyHome - 5113 for sale 2686 sale agreed; Daft - 4293 for sale 3405 sale agreed
Aug 19: MyHome - 5012 for sale 2659 sale agreed; Daft - 4237 for sale 3411 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday) (its not quite equivalent as I slipped a week due to holidays):
Aug 13: MyHome - 3627 for sale 2391 sale agreed; Daft - 3051 for sale 2750 sale agreed
Aug 27: MyHome - 3666 for sale 2375 sale agreed; Daft - 3098 for sale 2730 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1134

Noticing an uptake in the numbers of houses coming onto the market this week. Would be lucky if I seen one per week that would interest me based on price and location. Seen 5 so far this week, one that I viewed last night but opted not to bid on.


#1135

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3977 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .

July so far is 1270 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))
August so far is 597 (compared to 1114 (2014), 928(2013))

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Aug 19: MyHome - 5012 for sale 2659 sale agreed; Daft - 4237 for sale 3411 sale agreed
Sep 02: MyHome - 5053 for sale 2607 sale agreed; Daft - 4240 for sale 3439 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday) (its not quite equivalent as I slipped a week due to holidays):
Aug 27: MyHome - 3666 for sale 2375 sale agreed; Daft - 3098 for sale 2730 sale agreed
Sep 10: MyHome - 3930 for sale 2415 sale agreed; Daft - 3268 for sale 2802 sale agreed

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1136

Just some observations on the post above

  1. It looks like July will struggle to beat July last year, if it does it won’t be by much
  2. My friend who shows houses for one of the big estate agents in SCD says that there is less supply coming on this September than in previous years and although the For Sale figures in my stats have risen less than last year I wouldn’t say that supports the argument as my comparative figures for last year were taken a week later - and I suspect a week makes a big difference at this time of year.
  3. I still haven’t received the usual ‘We have sold many houses in your area - fancy letting us sell yours?’ leaflets which normally drop through our door at the end of the summer(which seems to contradict 2)

I think the next quarter will be very interesting. My hunch is that supply will rise as normal, my question is whether demand will rise to meet/overtake it and in any case will there be an impact on prices (in either direction).


#1137

What’s your hunch about whether demand will rise to meet/overtake the supply and whether there will be an impact on prices?


#1138

Loads coming on in the D4 high end in the last week for some reason.


#1139

Haven’t posted anything on numbers since late May

822 this week.
A very sprightly start to the Autumn season…here’s to break the 1k mark before the end of September 8DD


#1140

DNG leaflet came in yesterday


#1141

The problem is you’re trying to predict two variables here so a hunch*hunch is just a random guess.

I think demand is mainly constrained by funds. I think a lot of people have stopped looking beyond certain price levels as they know they can’t achieve the deposits and the income levels required. Wages are not increasing in general and in the few areas they are rising (e.g. IT) the rises are small (<10%). There was a wealth effect from the stock market which was rising consistently but this only affects a very few people and this rise has now stalled and most investors are nervous - I suppose they might transfer into property but as I say its very few people. Costs, particularly rent, are also increasing making harder for people to accumulate funds.

Demand is also constrained by demographics. The population of Dublin now has a very high proportion of transient workers who are renting but will never buy. Many of the asian IT workers are being rotated in and out from offshore companies on short term visas.

Demand might pick up if prices fell or stabilised giving people time to build up funds to buy the house that they want. I’m not sure how many people there still are out there who believe that if they wait long enough the house of their dreams will fall to the level that they can afford but I do think stability would bring an increase in demand in the longer term.

The current rise in rents will certainly drive demand for rental properties but the question is who will have the capital to do this. The big investors do but they are only interested in certain types of properties - almost exclusively apartments or gated estates so they don’t necessarily compete with Owner Occupiers.

I think supply is currently above demand in quantity levels but I suspect that much of the supply is not the price/kind/location of house that people want.

I still believe that houses in many parts of Dublin are overpriced by about 20% relative to the incomes of those that would buy them and those are the houses that are languishing on the market at the moment - houses that are asking 600k -1m. In the past they would have been bought by trader uppers using the equity in their current homes - but on 30 year mortgages from 2004 and beyond there is not enough equity to make a dent in those prices.

I think a lot of supply came on earlier this year in response to price increases but those increases appear to have stalled so I don’t see that affecting things. I do think there is a move out of rental by accidental landlords but again that may stop if the feeling of being able to get out at a reasonable price fades away. There is a stimulus in building but in SCD at least it is small infill developments.

Transaction levels will be higher than next year - maybe as many as 18000 in Dublin but I don’t think we’ll see the 40% increase we saw from 2013 to 2014. There seems to be a general view that the normal level would be 20 to 26000 transactions per year so 18000 would be approaching the lower bound of that

In summary I do not think demand will rise by much (except for rental properties) and that supply is unpredictable.To me that suggests a period of stable prices. If prices decline it will be at the higher end of the market >800k and will only affect a small number of sales so not enough to affect hedonic indices like the CSO.


#1142

Metal - if there’s a decline in the 800+ market - what sort of order of decline would you expect?


#1143

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .

July so far is 1347 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))
August so far is 939 (compared to 1114 (2014), 928(2013))
September so far is 193 (compared to 1288 (2014), 993(2013))

I’d say July is virtually complete so it’s going to be pretty much level with last year. August probably won’t be complete for another 3/4 weeks so I’d say it could surpass last year but maybe not by much. September is far too early to tell.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Sep 02: MyHome - 5053 for sale 2607 sale agreed; Daft - 4240 for sale 3439 sale agreed
Sep 16: MyHome - 5188 for sale 2515 sale agreed; Daft - 4320 for sale 3397 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday) (its not quite equivalent as I slipped a week due to holidays):
Sep 10: MyHome - 3930 for sale 2415 sale agreed; Daft - 3268 for sale 2802 sale agreed
Sep 25: MyHome - 4095 for sale 2400 sale agreed; Daft - 3338 for sale 2852 sale agreed

The increases in this years figures seem pretty much in line with last years so maybe my earlier thoughts on a possible decrease in supply are wrong (with the usual caveats on the value of these figures)

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)