Is supply coming on?


#1144

As I said I think everything over the 500k mark is 20% overvalued and I think you could apply that pro-rata to everything up to 900k. Above that you are not really dealing with people constrained by mortgage regulations so they will pay what they want to pay but in most of my dealings with very wealthy people the main thing that I notice is that they won’t overpay. ‘New’ money will overpay but in a recession there is very little new money so I think, in general, anything over a million will be getting less unless it is particularly special in some way (and ‘special’ means different things to different people). Declines in price at this level depend on whether there is pressure on the owner to sell - if there is 3m houses can become 1.5m houses very quickly.


#1145

Interesting. Thanks


#1146

Just the 778 this weekend. Disapointing that the numbers haven’t risen


#1147

793 at the moment. The numbers haven’t really shot up for the season. Is there still time?

I’ve been watching numbers in my search area:

  • They hit a high point in mid June at around 246 results
  • Low point in mid Aug with 172 results
  • Currently at 196 results, which isn’t much of an increase from the low point and a long way of June’s numbers

#1148

Yeah, seem to be sticking around the 800 mark and as this is late Sept, it doesn’t look like they’ll get any higher

Interesting, I’m going to 2 viewings over the next 3 days for houses on myhome but which aren’t down for viewings. Both on a good while at this stage, both showing price drops but only viewing if you ring up and enquire


#1149

My impression was that this is fairly common. A good few of the places I’ve looked at have never had an open viewing announced on MyHome etc., but they were happy to do viewings on ringing up, usually with one or two other people at the viewing. I’ve only started looking in the last couple of months, though, so don’t really know what’s normal.


#1150

I’ve been looking for a few years and wasn’t aware this was the case at all !!!


#1151

I was interested in a house and was told they were viewing Wednesday at 2.30 etc and then got a message to say “final viewing is today (a Friday) at half 4” . So I never managed to actually get to see it. They are obviously very confident and don’t feel the need to accommodate buyers with Saturday viewings


#1152

They could have had an offer that they’re prepared to run with, and don’t want to stretch things out.

As regards open views and advertised places. My experience is that there might well only be a couple of open viewings, and thereafter you just make an appointment to view. I’ve been to far more booked viewings than open - you generally get to see the place a bit better.


#1153

Agree. In the last year I’ve been to two open viewings and about 30 bespoke visits. You get a far better feel for the place and can actively assess the pros and cons. Personally, I found the two open viewings a bit like being at the sales as they open on boxing day. Effectively after about 5 minutes I go; “I can not be a*sed with this”.


#1154

After those 30 visits how many did you bid on?


#1155

Just one which was rejected. House asking remains 30% above my valuation so happy to wait. I think its in arrears which is complicating discussions. Additionally, has been on the market for almost two years and not sold so have to questions motivation of seller.

Apparently,history of property over the last two years is:

October 13: Listed at X
February 14: Sale agreed at X+10%.
April 14: Sale fell through due to financing. Relisted at X+10%.
June 14: Sale agreed after bidding at X+45%.
October 14: Sale fell through due to financing.
November 14: Relisted at X+35%. This is 40% above any other property on estate on a sold EUR per sq ft basis since 2010.
January 15: Bid at X which was rejected. Went to X+5% which again was rejected and so I just said come back to me when you want to sell.

Motivation for seeing so many properties was:

  1. Narrow down search criteria and rule out areas and styles. Equally, reconfirming what my OH and I are looking for.
  2. Get an understanding of exact relative value. Have used this technique many times before when looking at a new area. Knowing the finer details of almost every competing property has in the past allowed me to bid with confidence when a new property comes available given I know its exact value.
  3. This only equates to around 5 days as we would typically allocate a full day and see multiple properties back-to-back.

Whilst I’ve used this strategy on purchases and even rentals for 15 years, I cannot recommend it enough. It takes discipline and focus but means that I have always been happy with my acquisitions.

If I go back tot he first flat I bought out of college, I must have looked at about 50 properties over a 2 month period. That allowed me to bid on first viewing of the property I purchased within two days of it being listed.

On a Dublin property purchase, I would argue that we are in a unique bracket of buyers who are in no rush to buy (we would like to conclude ASAP but don’t actually need the property as a PPR for a number of years and so would look to rent it out to wash its face), are looking at small segment of the market where houses are typically not homogeneous and prices are categorically declining.

To further exacerbate matters, we are based abroad and so happy to sit back and watch EUR:USD depreciate. In real terms, the property we bid on would be around X-25% now in USD terms (or asking+35%, is not far off X a year ago). That being said, it still remains over priced in both currencies (unless you believe EUR is undervalued and will snap back). If we found an ideal property (or one that could become ideal with work) that was sensibly priced in EUR, we would transact tomorrow and manage FX exposure through other tools.

Out of the 30(ish) properties we’ve seen there are 5 that we actually like. Only one has gone sale agreed YTD. I have a value for each and have communicated that to the agent(s) involved. They’ve not sold and so by proxy others in the market agree with my assessment. Unfortunately for the vendor, we’re not forced buyers (just as they are not forced sellers). Will repeat with new stock in 4Q, but happy to wait into 2016.

Personally, I don’t understand why anyone wouldn’t do a minimum of 15 viewings(irrespective of price bracket) when purchasing. By the time you take in repeat viewings, that’s only about 10 properties. How can you judge what is value, if you should be increasing or decreasing your budget to fit requirements, and then weighing off size, location, quality and price with such a small sample size?

For most its going to be your biggest capital outlay of you life, and is going to have an impact on the happiness and success of you and your family for multi-years.


#1156

Billy, you have way more patience than me. I was an EA I’d probably block your number for being a timewaster. :smiley:

If I’m only going to suss out an area, house style or whatever I go to open viewings and leave the private ones for houses I’m likely to bid on, unless the EA is particularly keen to show something despite my ambivalence. EAs may be barely human but I’m not comfortable wasting anyone’s time to that extent.


#1157

With regards the EA, if there alternative is not to sell the property and receive no commission (which is what is happening with this segment), then there’s no real alternative. Every house I’ve gone to see (with the exception of a view where EAs have asked me to visit in order to show momentum with the vendor), has been one I would seriously bid on if it is right. A lot of the tangible aspects that would drive valuation, and more importantly desire to live in can only be found through a physical viewing.

Saying to an EA you’ve got an hour to show me 4 properties is hardly wasting their time given the quantum of commission that is made from effectively taking a few photos and posting them online IMO.

The alternative way to view it is that when I do bid then the EA knows that I’m serious and not messing around with joke bids. I’ve discussed that with them in the past and explained my valuation of a property and its up to them how they want to advise their client.


#1158

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .

July so far is 1366 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))
August so far is 1108 (compared to 1114 (2014), 928(2013))
September so far is 831 (compared to 1288 (2014), 993(2013))

I’d say July and August are virtually complete so are going to be pretty much level with last year. September looks like it has a chance to pass last years figure but I wouldn’t think it will be by much. July to September currently stands at 3305 compared to 3801 last year so I think it will be probably be level or slightly below.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Sep 16: MyHome - 5188 for sale 2515 sale agreed; Daft - 4320 for sale 3397 sale agreed
Oct 07: MyHome - 5207 for sale 2556 sale agreed; Daft - 4389 for sale 3342 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Sep 25: MyHome - 4095 for sale 2400 sale agreed; Daft - 3338 for sale 2852 sale agreed
Oct 08: MyHome - 4126 for sale 2430 sale agreed; Daft - 3286 for sale 2953 sale agreed

The increases in this years figures seem pretty much in line with last years so maybe my earlier thoughts on a possible decrease in supply are wrong (with the usual caveats on the value of these figures). So if you believe these figures and combine them with the recent CSO statistics it seems that supply (houses for sale) is up, demand (transactions) is flat and prices are up - which doesn’t really compute if you believe in the laws of economics - however we know that the housing market in Ireland is immune to the laws of economics. Also although these figures are accurate their interpretation is speculative.

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1159

I’m not sure how it was this time last year, but, at least in the areas/price ranges I’m looking at, a lot of the ‘supply’ has been around for a very long time, with offers in from months ago, but vendors holding out for higher prices; similar stuff priced a bit lower sells quickly. I’m not sure how much of the ‘supply’ is available at realistic prices.


#1160

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .

July so far is 1374 (compared to 1398 (2014), 938(2013))
August so far is 1128 (compared to 1114 (2014), 928(2013))
September so far is 1080 (compared to 1288 (2014), 993(2013))

October so far is 296 (compared to 1807 (2014), 1042 (2013))

July to September so far is 3582 compared to 3801 last year. I wouldn’t say there is much mileage left in the quarter but September will probably at least equal last year leaving the quarter pretty similar to last year.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Oct 07: MyHome - 5207 for sale 2556 sale agreed; Daft - 4389 for sale 3342 sale agreed
Oct 21: MyHome - 5163 for sale 2522 sale agreed; Daft - 4287 for sale 3265 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Oct 08: MyHome - 4126 for sale 2430 sale agreed; Daft - 3286 for sale 2953 sale agreed
Oct 30: MyHome - 4295 for sale 2458 sale agreed; Daft - 3458 for sale 3045 sale agreed

This time last year the numbers of for sale and sale agreed were increasing compared to the previous period rather than the reductions we see this year.

My feeling is that last year was an exceptional last quarter and that we might not see the same volumes this year. Sales so far this year are around 11,300 so I still think we will beat last years 14035 but probably not by much - last years last quarter had 5229 sales, 2013 had 3841 - so 2013 transaction levels would see us pass last years total annual sales. I am still curious to estimate what a ‘normal’ level of transactions is. Population figures and comparison with the UK and other countries with high home ownership suggest figures between 20 and 26000. However I think we have a very large transient workshop who are committed to renting (or perhaps have no choice given their salary levels) and its possible that that might be distorting the figures we can expect. Certainly the number of houses for sale around me seems very ‘normal’ compared to years outside the boom or the recession.

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322)


#1161

If this is the case, and on the basis of the trends we are seeing I believe that you are spot on, then surely supply at the end of this year will be over 50% up on what it was at the same time last year?


#1162

Not so sure the sales will be up there. Recent Dec sales have been pumped by the end of various govt incentives. Demand pulled forward. No panic to get this done for coming Dec.


#1163

And even if they are supply will be more than 50% over last year’s total