Is supply coming on?


#1184

Thats the pitches in the closed off area? Or the myriad of pitches in the Park area itself?


#1185

Freefallin, that is specific to the ‘closed off area’.


#1186

Not disputing your figure but have you a source for it?

Seems a very large number - 1000 kids with 30 kids per game suggests 33 hours playing time. On top of that add all the adults and you’re looking at possibly 40+ playing hours.
How many pitches are there in this space?


#1187

Looking at Clontarf GAA Club’s website - they seem to use that site for all of their junior and juvenile matches/coaching. There are six pitches there, so three hours on Saturday and two hours on a Sunday on each pitch would add up to about 30 hours.

clontarfgaa.com/Home/Welcome
Our Nursery on a Saturday morning caters for over 400 boys and girls ranging in age from 4-8. All boys and girls are taught the basic skills in football, hurling and camogie by qualified coaches in a fun and enjoyable atmosphere. The ethos of the club for all our young boys and girls, is one of participation, skill development and fun for all.


#1188

Clontarf used to be a decent rugby club too so I assume you’d get decent numbers there too.

I would assume these could be accommodated on the proposed artificial pitches being put in and within the 25+ other pitches in the park.

For these types of projects they should really have done a full study on utilization rates. How much does it cost to cordon off the area (make only 1 or 2 entrances) and have 5 or 6 guys with a ticker counting players all weekend. It should probably be done during the week too.

I noted in the planning app a “consent of owner” letter from the Venetians. I wonder if the sale of this site is “subject to planning”.


#1189

The other big user is Clontarf FC who run a large number of underage teams.

Don’t have a source - it is feedback given by the clubs in question but I don’t see any reason to doubt the numbers given my own observations of the activity on those fields while out walking the dogs.


#1190

The 1,000 number would seem supportable based on the clubs involved but a direct source would be better considering you’re position on this issue.
Further, an aggregate figure doesn’t give an much clarity on utilization rates. Do the club’s season’s overlap. Is there alternative space available? Can pitches be split?
While 6 pitches are contained within the site at present, there will be 3 pitches remaining after the development is completed.

The main reason I “doubted” your numbers is the fact you are objecting to the development and many of the points you raised in your first post I would class as disingenuous.

A) Land gets rezoned all the time. Nothing new here.
B) The price DCC sold the land to the Venetians in the 1950’s has nothing to do with the proposed development.
C) This is a valid argument but the impact on the local infrastructure will have to reviewed by the relevant roads, drainage and water authorities anyway - same as any other application.
E) That is pure nimbyism.
F) It doesn’t “significantly reduce” the facilities available to local groups. There appears to be 41 pitches in the combined St Pauls & St Annes Park site - this reduces the availability by 3 pitches - approx 7%. Is that a reduction? Yes. Is it “significant”? No.
G) Things change.


#1191

8 storey blocks already in Stepaside.
Do they even allow that height in the city centre?


#1192

found 5 max: binged.it/1jyfrgo (bird’s eye helps), not sure where there would be other blocks like that nearby


#1193

Parkview apartments in Belarmine estate, 6 storey over car park, street view will give you better idea.

google.ie/maps/@53.2600255, … 312!8i6656


#1194

6 story over basement in Aiken’s Village too.

What’s Central Park at leapordstown/sandyford roundabout - 10 or 12 or something?


#1195

Well, at least they’re not blaming it on the CB mortgage limit rules this time!

New homes schemes permissions fall 59% in Dublin
Latest figures reveal drop in permissions and raise concerns about supply
irishtimes.com/life-and-styl … -1.2451668


#1196

That’s somewhere in the UK.

My knowledge of SCD geography is brutal so I might have it mixed up with another village but the development is on your right going towards the m50 and I counted the floors on the building nearest the road a few times.


#1197

today:
irishtimes.com/business/comm … -1.2457107

Steady tickle of news on the supply side …institutional money comes in to disrupt “Country Toms …no money at these prices” spotting an opportunity for sales and lettings …use their scale to fast track, make margin, increase supply.

Other recent examples …there will be more…
independent.ie/business/comm … 52352.html
capitaldock.ie/Capitaldock-brochure.pdf


#1198

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .
July to September so far is 3745 compared to 3801 last year. A 2% decrease on last year. I’d say its nearly complete.

October so far is 1155 (compared to 1807 (2014), 1042 (2013)). Usually monthly figures are pretty close to complete after 6 weeks so this looks like October is 56% down on last year
November so far is 583 (compared to 1149 (2014), 1035 (2013)).

The total for the year so far is 12960 so we might even struggle to meet last years figure.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Nov 18: MyHome - 4701 for sale 2505 sale agreed; Daft - 3912 for sale 2780 sale agreed
Dec 9th: MyHome - 4244 for sale 2473 sale agreed; Daft - 3561 for sale 2578 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Nov 25: MyHome - 4319 for sale 2578 sale agreed; Daft - 3556 for sale 3210 sale agreed
Dec 10: MyHome - 4122 for sale 2522 sale agreed; Daft - 3556 for sale 3210 sale agreed (there may be an error here - I suspect I accidentally duplicated the Daft figures)

This time last year the numbers of for sale and sale agreed were increasing compared to the previous period rather than the reductions we see this year. This trend has now continued for a month. And in this month Sale Agreed figures are lower than last year. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in sales - its beginning to look as if there is an impact already,

There is a continuing slow down in the market being reflected by the PPR. However For Sale and Sale Agreed figures are not drastically different to last year when we had a massive December boom.

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322).


#1199

Thanks for the analysis metalmike!

Is the conclusion to the above that we’re returning to 2013 volumes but staying at 2015 prices then? (Extrapolating from what you just said).


#1200

Graphs here.
viewtopic.php?p=856170#p856170
We’re either just going to scrape last year’s transaction volume or go slightly under it.

Considering that volumes are still anaemic, that’s a fairly significant indicator as to the health of the market.


#1201

The collapse in the number of sales since the beginning of the year is indeed stunning. However you can read so many things into this.


#1202

I’m not seeing a collapse on that graph. That would imply a sharp drop from a sustained level. The end-2014 sales were not sustained, they were a spike. That spike also happened at the end of 2012 and 2013, IIRC caused by ending of various incentives.

We don’t know yet whether there will be a year end spike in 2015. At this stage it looks unlikely. The question is whether an end-of-year spike is “normal”, excluding these repeated one off factors.

My view is that supply is not “coming on” at the moment, as judged by myhome.ie alerts I subscribe to. From my particular view of the market, looking at 500k-1m, the “wall of purple” phase is long over and the last couple of months have been very quiet indeed.


#1203

I agree with this. I was expecting a jump in supply in this market at the end of the summer but it didn’t materialize. :confused: