Is supply coming on?


#1204

To all the bears, I am happy take wagers and will even give odds (5/1) that 2015 PPR sales for Dublin will exceed 2014


#1205

As measured when? March 15?


#1206

Let’s go for a date in the future.

Perhaps 15-3-16 :slight_smile:


#1207

Yeah, supply really died in early November. Nothing happening on myhome for weeks now.


#1208

Houses, they’re not makin em anymore…


#1209

Was at a viewing yesterday and the estate agent reckons she has a lot of stock coming online in January. A lot of people probably want to get christmas out of the way before they deal with selling.


#1210

When is the last time anyone spoke to an EA who wasn’t talking up their business for the coming months! :smiley:


#1211

Also, possibly want to wait for a new round of central bank exemptions.

I’m not sure if I’m imagining it, but it feels like estate agents are getting much sneakier about price drops. I’ve noticed a lot of stuff lately delisted, and then a few days after relisted with a lower price, differently formatted address, etc. Not sure why they might be doing this.


#1212

They usually just talk about stuff they have on their books which they need to shift now. There’s no point shifting demand into the future, not with little EA mouths to feed!


#1213

Agreed. It definitely has me thinking of waiting until January. It definitely made me less interested in the place I was looking at.


#1214

FWIW I overheard a north Wicklow EA say today “November has been our best month of the year”. I realise that opinions of professional liars at sales events count for sod all though.

(with apols for quoting myself)


#1215

Little EA mouths are better fed when EAs talk up the next few months, because in reality that’s talking up “the now” also… along the lines of “things are only going from good to great - get onboard the rocket!”.

Also, there probably is stock being held back “til after Christmas” so that it can be released to suck up the 2016 exemptions. So if there’s a place on the market that you like now, it might be worth considering that.


#1216

The place I viewed last week was nice but not ideal. I have been looking for a while and am struggling to find the perfect place so am very much at the fed up and will settle for anything decent stage. If the EA had not mentioned that there is a heap of new stock coming on in January I possibly would have been willing to place a bid on this one.

As a side note, I did end up viewing something nicer the same evening and have bid on it. I would consider this place the closest thing to ideal that I will get for a while.


#1217

Great. Glad you found something you felt was worth bidding on. As that process is likely to go through Christmas, it’s worth keeping your eye out for new year stock too.

But ultimately, there’s always another house to view - sometimes the ideal house for you is not only a blend of the house spec, location, condition, but also price, and timing and circumstance too.
For example, personally, last year we bought an ok house, at a reasonable price, in an ideal location and ideal timing. In a perfect world we would have wanted all criteria to fit the “ideal” benchmark. We just felt ideal time (for us) and location trumped the other factors - at least for the next few years. The house condition can be improved by us over time - but location of said house obviously cannot :smiley:
We just felt that if we kept looking for another 2 years, we would have spent close to 40k on rent, have made no capital payments on a house, be 2 years older with 2 years less time on our mortgage, and have had the insecurity of the rental market. Granted the market segment we were looking in may well have dropped in price, but not to the extent to make an appreciable financial difference to our decision.
So for us, it was the right compromise.

It’s a case of getting the right weighting on criteria for yourself.


#1218

Latest Figures from the PPR:

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .
July to September so far is 3758 compared to 3801 last year. A 1% decrease on last year.

October so far is 1155 (compared to 1807 (2014), 1042 (2013)). 48% down on last year - probably complete at this stage
November so far is 1042 (compared to 1149 (2014), 1035 (2013)). I think this has a good chance of topping last years figure
December so far is 548 (compared to 2277 (2014), 1764 (2013)).

The total for the year so far is 14056 so we are almost certain to surpass last years figure.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Dec 9th: MyHome - 4244 for sale 2473 sale agreed; Daft - 3561 for sale 2578 sale agreed
Dec 24th: MyHome - 3936 for sale 2298 sale agreed; Daft - 3294 for sale 2680 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
Dec 10: MyHome - 4122 for sale 2522 sale agreed; Daft - 3556 for sale 3210 sale agreed (there may be an error here - I suspect I accidentally duplicated the Daft figures from 25 Nov)
Dec 24: MyHome - 3810 for sale 2256 sale agreed; Daft - 3075 for sale 3049 sale agreed

It appears that the slow down in the market reflected by the PPR in September and October has possibly been reversed in November. The For Sale and Sale Agreed figures are not drastically different to last year when we had a massive December boom. I believe there will be a December spike - I don’t think it will be like 2013 or 2014 but I still think people like to close before the year end and there are a large number of Sale Agreeds out there. If you look at previous years (not just 2013/2014) the majority of sales happen post 17th December. The December figure quoted here ends at the 18th. There are also 4 working days between Xmas and New Year this year so I think that might have an effect. By the way I also think there will be a January spike which will be as a consequence of the CB rules.

I had an interesting chat with a retired EA over Xmas. He believes we are almost in a ‘normal’ market in Dublin (in terms of numbers of sales) apart from one missing factor - new builds. His belief is that new builds started to come on stream last year and that they will be a much bigger factor next year.

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322).


#1219

Does Sale Agreed really mean anything? I’m currently Sale Agreed on 2 houses within 4 doors of each other. I’m not actually, but I have been Sale Agreed on one or the other since May. Both still appear SA though obviously they’re not. Whether either will become sold to me is anyone’s guess.


#1220

Per Q4 2015 daft report

daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2015q4-sale

housing stock is at a 9 year low


#1221

Just noted that today’s update of the PPR brings the total Dublin transactions for 2015 so far (14462) above those for 2014 (14123). The last quarter is probably going to be about 25% down on Q4 2014 (based on there being about 40 more sales for November and about 400 for December). Overall that would suggest 7% more sales in 2015 and 2014 with a huge increase in sales in Qs 1 an 2, a flat Q3 and a much lower Q4.


#1222

New housing estate in Dublin refused permission

irishtimes.com/news/environm … -1.2487416

124 homes on 2.47 hectares (6.1 acres)??

I think the IT may have got this wrong. 1 hectare is 2.47 acres, so they may have misquoted


#1223

Sounds like they’re correct:124 units to 2.47ha is right if the density must be 50 units per hectare, per the article.

They make it sound like he’s never been denied planning before - he has, multiple times. In any case, planners can’t just go around accepting any proposed development for the sake of it or else our housing crisis will just get worse down the line. Adamstown has a dedicated train station that goes largely underused (from what I’ve heard), so it’s clear that there is scope to have far more people living out there to make efficient use of its infrastructure. That protected tree situation sounds like a disaster - one minute planners say they have to be protected, next the inspector is saying they’re not worth keeping.