Is supply coming on?


#1244

Yes, I get the impression that supply has increased. Lots of tasty looking houses in nice areas on for €800k+ over the past week or so.


#1245

I’m afraid I’m illiterate when it comes to doing that sort of stuff but I have had offers of help to sort that out so … watch this space.

On the Daft thing - I noticed this and remarked on it in early December. I use the figures from the Daft website on the day that the PPR results are published so maybe it’s just a function of my figures being a point in time - maybe they do some adjustment to try and smooth things out. I don’t think they’re doing anything dodgy.

Personally , driving around SCD and the South city I think there are as many houses on the market as there were last year - I don’t notice a dramatic difference. On my route to work I do notice that the ‘Sale Agreeds’ seem to be very sticky at the moment but that may just be a post-christmas thing.


#1246

metalmike, sent you a PM.


#1247

Latest Figures from the PPR (February 4th):

Comparing January, February and March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on last year .
July to September is 3769 (compared to 3801). A less than 1% decrease on last year.

October so far is 1261 (compared to 1807 (2014), 1042 (2013)). 43% down on last year - probably complete at this stage
November so far is 1168 (compared to 1149 (2014), 1035 (2013)). 2% up on last year. Probably complete at this stage
December so far is 1505 (compared to 2277 (2014), 1764 (2013)). 51% down on last year. probably complete at this stage.

October to December is currently 3934 compared to 5242 - so currently 33% down on last year.

January so far is 651 (compared to 1254 (2015), 603 (2014)).
February so far is 207 (compared to 1133 (2015), 740 (2014)).

The total for the year so far is 15205 - 8.3% higher than last years figure of 14035. These are probably pretty close to final figures for the year.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Feb 4th: MyHome - 3984 for sale 2011 sale agreed; Daft - 3420 for sale 2570 sale agreed
Feb 17th: MyHome - 4062 for sale 1945 sale agreed; Daft - 3505 for sale 2534 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
February 11: MyHome - 3910 for sale 1806 sale agreed; Daft - 3330 for sale 2645 sale agreed (one week later than this year)
February 25: MyHome - 4065 for sale 1830 sale agreed; Daft - 3478 for sale 2668 sale agreed

Current for sale figures are lower (MyHome) and higher (Daft) than last year!

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322).


#1248

Latest Figures from the PPR (March 3rd):

Comparing January to March 2015 (3432) to the same period in 2014 (2165) there is a 59% increase.
April to June 2015 is 3978 (compared to 2878) a 38% increase on 2014.
July to September 2015 is 3769 (compared to 3801). A less than 1% decrease on 2014.
October to December 2015 is 3961 compared to 5242 - so 32% down on 2014.

January so far is 746 (compared to 1254 (2015), 603 (2014)). January is probably pretty close to complete at this stage and is 68% down on last year
February so far is 758 (compared to 1133 (2015), 740 (2014)).

The total for the year so far is 15239 - 8.6% higher than last years figure of 14035. These are probably pretty close to final figures for the year.

Here are the current For Sale and Sale Agreed figures - although I don’t think they have a lot of meaning people seem to set some store by them:

Feb 17th: MyHome - 4062 for sale 1945 sale agreed; Daft - 3505 for sale 2534 sale agreed
March 3rd: MyHome - 4139 for sale 1887 sale agreed; Daft - 3552 for sale 2667 sale agreed

For comparison here are the figures for the nearest date last year (i.e. the equivalent Wednesday):
February 25: MyHome - 4065 for sale 1830 sale agreed; Daft - 3478 for sale 2668 sale agreed
March 11: MyHome - 4346 for sale 1816 sale agreed; Daft - 3722 for sale 2618 sale agreed

Now both for sale figures are lower than last year! Sale agreeds are pretty similar to last year but I’m not sure how reliable these figures are since they are totally at the discretion of the EAs and there isn’t the same motivation to keep them up to date as there is for the For Sale figures.

December 2014 has the highest monthly sales (2228) for Dublin since the PPR started.
Number of Sales in Dublin for 2014 (14035) was 36% higher than the sales for 2013 (10322).


#1249

Metalmike does this monthly dump of text really mean anything to anyone.

Any chance you could just put it in graph format as really it provides nothing.

Sorry but I doubt I’m the only one thinking it…

Peace :wink:


#1250

I find it very useful.

Thanks Metalmike


#1251

As do I. The work is much appreciated.


#1252

I discussed producing metalmike’s figures in chart form (may have slipped his mind). Anyway, this is all available on the PPR Volumes chart on the Pretty Charts thread, which I will keep updated on a regular basis. I took the specification directly from metalmike’s figures. I haven’t got myhome sale agreed figures yet, but may take a look at it. For the PPR figures, I’ve marked the various stats in metalmikes comments like this: https://latex.codecogs.com/gif.latex?\rightarrow\mathbb{A%2CB%2CC...} corresponding to the tool tips on the following charts which I’ve marked likewise. The live version of the chart is here (don’t forget to select “Dublin” if you want the equivalent of metalmike’s figures. You can also get monthly or quarterly, and whole country and ex-Dublin, plus all historical data in bar chart and table form).


#1253

D3.js


#1254

Oh god. Why not just rub broken glass all over your face?


#1255

Interesting way of making a chart. Is there something wrong with D3?


#1256

It appears to be designed to inflict maximum pain upon its users. Pretty powerful if it doesn’t break you first I understand.


#1257

It’s awesome! With awesome flexibility comes awesome pain, and yes, awesome broken glass rubbed all over your face. :smiley:
It takes a bit of getting used to, but worth it imho. If you’re interested there might be some further information on a certain possibly naughty site.


#1258

PPR chart now shows prices as well as volumes. See the Pretty Charts thread.

I don’t know if it means anything, but January is currently the highest monthly median price of residential property in Dublin since the PPR began, marginally above last August and September. The CSO index shows January prices down MoM. As far as I can tell, when the two go in opposite directions it means the mix of properties being sold is changing – in this case a greater number of more expensive properties.


#1259

I was pretty busy over the past few weeks and the great job that ps200306 did to move the data to the pretty charts thread has essentially made my job redundant - so thanks for doing that - makes much more sense than churning out figures…

It’s interesting that there were 3462 Dublin sales in the first quarter last year and this quarter so far there 3031 with a couple of weeks to go so rather than a ‘crash’ in the numbers of sales it looks like they will probably be about 10% down on the best year since the PPR started (for comparison sales in Q1 2014 were 2193, 2013 - 1581, 2012 - 1432, 2011 - 1078 , 2010 - 1427).

As I’ve often said I think the For Sale /Sale Agreed figures are pretty useless but I have had to use them to call BS on press statements (and even the odd pinster). So here are the latest

6/4/16 MyHomeFS : 4431 MyHomeSA: 2079 DaftFS: 3724 DaftSA: 2486
13/4/16 MyHomeFS : 4569 MyHomeSA: 2144 DaftFS: 3768 DaftSA: 2539
20/4/16 MyHomeFS : 4560 MyHomeSA: 2189 DaftFS: 3796 DaftSA: 2611

And for comparison with last year

8/4/15 MyHomeFS : 4797 MyHomeSA: 1996 DaftFS: 4085 DaftSA: 2526
22/4/15 MyHomeFS : 5071 MyHomeSA: 1975 DaftFS: 4326 DaftSA: 2577

I don’t know if anyone wants to continue to keep these figures. I’m only keeping them because its difficult to get historical values and I thought some pattern might emerge - I don’t think there is one. Perhaps some technical genius could scrape these and add them to the pretty charts thread.


#1260

Thanks MM. Hang on to those historical “for sale” numbers if you would. It’s not a number I currently collect. I’m pretty busy myself at the moment, but I might get around to Pretty Chartifying it at some stage, and would be good to have the historical numbers rather than starting from scratch.


#1261

Thanks for the “pretty charts” ps. A picture tells a thousand words.

If taking on myhome / daft then some suggestions (without knowing how easy/difficult to implement):

  • asking price per square foot > perhaps segmented to separate out starter homes (say up to 1000 sq ft), middle class family homes (say up to 1700 sq ft), big homes. Further segmentation based on affluent/middle class/wurking class?

  • average speed of sale. This taken from unique ad code (which gives time of arrival on the market) tied to appearance on ppr.

  • original asking price vs. eventual sales price

  • track performance of E.A.s (portion of market, their asking vs. their selling, their speed of sale)

  • track which price brackets houses for sale fall into as a proportion of total sales

  • track number of asking price rises / falls

  • best fit curves through the ppr data (something which propertypriceregisterireland don’t do but which might be handy to be able to see)

  • splitting data further on county level (or at least, commuter belt outside Dublin as a separate entity)

…off the top of my head :wink:


#1262

Thanks for the ideas, york. Many of them, unfortunately, are scuppered by either the quantity/quality of the data, or the way I’m handling it. To highlight a few problems:

  • Myhome recycles shortcodes so they are not unique IDs
  • Properties often get relisted under different shortcodes, so they are not a guide to the history of a sale
  • I only snapshot myhome data monthly (previously 3-monthly) so can’t guarantee to see a property’s arrival and disappearance with any granularity
  • Most geographical decompositions of the data below the level I’m already doing don’t contain enough properties to be representative. For instance, some Dublin postcodes would only contain dozens of properties for sale at a time.
  • Matching sales ads to eventual PPR sales is fraught – address quality and standardisation is pretty bad. I’m already working off the subset of a third to a half of myhome ads that give floor areas, and the yield is further reduced by difficulty of matching.
  • I’ve done some ads-to-PPR matches as once-offs but I favour analyses that are consistent, repeatable, and fully automatable, so none of them have made it as “Pretty Charts” for now.

I’d say some further break down of floor areas and asking/sale prices into percentiles might be possible for large areas (e.g. all of Dublin). Will review your list of points again and stick anything that’s practical (depressingly little, I’m afraid, due to data quality) on the to-do list.


#1263

No worries, just chucked them in as they came to me. I’m ahead of the exterio-pinners by virtue of what info is available already

This the 7 digit code under the thumbnail photos? Seems to be ever advancing upwards rather than recycling codes that appeared before

True, but I’d suppose a minority given it costs an agent to make a new listing. It might contaminate the data a bit but perhaps not fatally so in getting global indicators. EA’s do bump ads but mostly keep the same 7 digit code.

hmmm. If properties don’t disappear in 3 months (which would strike me as a pretty short timeframe given it’s got to appear on the PPR before the ad loses it code) then perhaps something to be had. If they go to PPR and lose their number then they could be eradicated from the data list. Thus, if for sale, sale agreed or in the sold section (but not in the PPR section) then they’d be lives 'uns.

Understood. Perhaps then sample sizes that are sufficiently big (e.g. SCD, NCD, Commuter belts)

I’ve seen it! Indeed, I’ve known someone to have the solicitor misspell an address to prevent it appearing in the PPR. And I wonder about properties appearing in the Irish sea, or further a field.

Would it be possible to do some kind of % matching (if the myhome string matches the ppr string to within X % then a match is assumed. Let the number have to tally but the precise text not, to a degree?

That little? Is this from the general listing page (80-90% of ads quote floor area) or from the text of the ad

I appreciate the fully-automatable a very important part of the exercise. Indeed, that’s probably what makes it fun. After initial investment, sit back and reap like a landlord.

Everything you do is a plus already. Many thanks thus far.