Is supply coming on?


#1284

live in Dublin myself …but I wouldn’t have thought the towns on the Kildare/Dublin border the “wrong place” …if that’s the case then that’s new


#1285

I appreciate that an internet forum has an over-representation of people who sit at desks in cities, but there are plenty of people who live in the counties surrounding Dublin who have jobs or lifestyles which are not like that.

There are also people who simply enjoy living outside of Dublin, for all sorts of reasons. Maybe they like space, or horses, or golf, or hiking up mountains, or walking the dog on a nice beach (not in Kildare, obviously).

If it was the case that people only lived outside of Dublin because they couldn’t afford a nice place in the city because of stupid property prices, then there would be no rich people outside the M50. That is plainly not the case.

Michae O’Leary lives in Westmeath. Westmeath. Christ, the coffee must be awful and I bet there’s no jamon iberico de bellota to be found.


#1286

MOL just bought a nice gaff on the south side (was in the papers). He probably has a bunch of other apts and houses dotted about or stays in a hotel half the week.


#1287

This site is very Dublin (South) centered as can be seen in many comments. Having lived in D6 and worked in D2 I am still not sure what makes Dublin so magical, but each to their own (squirrel wheel) :smiley:

IMHO it is easier to become “wealthy” if you do not need to live/work in Dublin (and have enormous debt burden on your shoulder), if you manage to find good employment outside of Dublin then for a price of a very very boring and small house in Dublin you can live like a king :smiley:
The reactions from Dubliners when they find out that I do not own an ounce of debt yet have a descent home for my family and overall quite happy with my life 8) is usually quite interesting…


#1288

already had a very swish gaff on Raglan Road/D4 IIRC. He doesn’t really “live in Westmeath” - though he obviously likes the simple country fella schtick


#1289

Have your figures not corroborated their story;

15380 sold last year
EA’s saying sales ‘about the same’
You ‘feel pretty confident we’ll cross the 15,000 and maybe even beat last years figures’.
It seems to me the figures fit the story…


#1290

I’ve had a long career working with professionals in Dublin …in the majority of cases only people from SCD buy in SCD …even though the rest of us could afford to …it’s in no way aspirational.

having visited friends in one of the so called most affluent parts over the summer …I was sick from the smell of dog fouling in Orwell park and surprised by rubbish along the dodder walk …I don’t think I’ll be aspiring to it any time soon.


#1291

Surely people generally buy where their (or their partners) family and friends are.


#1292

More like they buy where they can afford. I’m sure many would love to live near their friends and family, but it certainly isn’t an option for all working people.


#1293

to sum up …people buy as close to mammy as they can afford.


#1294

4 one beds being built by the DLRcoco on the junction of the Blackrock bypass and Carysfort ave.

we’ll see how many mattresses can be stuffed into them.


#1295

Just looking at the sales figures in the PPR for Dublin as the year comes to a close. It will be at least 2 months before all the sales for the year are through if previous years are anything to go by. Sales up to 26th December recorded in the PPR were 16694 compared to last years (for the whole year) of 15719. I’ll be surprised if the final total for the year is less than 18000. Even though the pace of sales towards the end of the year is accelerating rapidly I don’t see it hitting 20000. Sales for the first 9 months of this year were 12% higher than last year and I reckon those figures are complete - 18000 would be 14.5% higher than last year suggesting (if it works out at that figure) that the increase in sales is accelerating modestly.

I was curious to see what the effect of sales of new homes in Dublin was having. Sales of new homes in Dublin last year according to the PPR was 2473 (16% of all sales). Sales of new homes this year so far is 3731 (22% of all sales). For the first 9 months (this period is complete so it removes any possible bias in the figures due to differences in the time taken to process new sales) the 2587 new homes sold in this period in this year were 21% of sales, last year the 1559 new homes sold were 14% of the total sales in the period.

Looking at that 9 month period and taking out new sales for 2016 10863-1559 = 9304 for 2017 12194-2587= 9607 so sales of second hand houses have only increased by 3% whereas the overall increase is 12% for that 9 month period with new houses making up the difference.

For the last couple of years there has been talk of massive house building projects to kick off in the Glass Bottle Site in Ringsend (3000 houses) and Cherrywood (4000 houses) - as far as I can see neither of these have started - there always seems to be some delay. Cherrywood was supposedly started in February, and then again in October. It seems that in both cases the begging bowl is being held out to the taxpayer while the government is simultaneously ‘blamed’ for the delays - it’s basically just blackmail and unfortunately we’re already on the hook for a subsidy for Cherrywood via the ISIF. Again too much carrot and not enough stick. The site levy of 7% is farcical when site values are growing at over 10% p.a… There are two very simple things that can be done - a 100% tax on capital gains on sites in the rental pressure zones and setting the vacant site levy to twice the rate of house price inflation. These levies/taxes are only a stick if they actually cause the hoarders to lose money.

At last the Government has recognised that the lack of accommodation is a serious issue for the economy. They are pretending that this is new but am well aware that the company managers of many of the multinationals have been saying this to ministers since 2010 and increasingly since 2013. Unfortunately many of these voices were Irish and it seems that the government won’t react until they hear it in an American accent - it isn’t true until Tim Cook says it’s true. The problem is that they are too late - it will take 3 years at the very least to bring the levels of housing into line with the levels of employment - and I’d be worried if it takes 3 years - if it’s that quick it will be because the increase in accommodation has risen to meet a decline in employment. The levels of churn in the IT companies that I work for is slowly ratchetting up - people can only couch surf for so long - if they have options in Europe they are going - the only one’s staying are the Brazilians, the Indians and the Chinese - the visa situation makes it difficult for them to find work in Europe or the US.


#1296

Thanks for the analysis mm.


#1297

Glass Bottle site receivers appeal Poolbeg social housing plans

irishtimes.com/news/social- … -1.3451862


#1298

‘We sold more new homes last weekend than we did in the whole of 2011’ - Mark FitzGerald

irishtimes.com/business/we- … -1.3487861


#1299

#1300

Has anyone been able to construct a supply/demand curve of Irish property over the years. Is such a thing achievable ?