Ok, all those theories of were it is going to start first, from the outside in or inside out.
The Great Irish Property Bubble is a borderless beast.
Movements & Trends in popular specuvestor areas Spain, Bulgaria, Turkey and so on are as important a piece of the puzzle not just the hanging unsold inventory on myhome.ie or daft.ie in Ireland.
How many properties purchased abroad have been done so with equity release of properties in Ireland, that probably donâ€™t’ even have tenants to cover the cost. How loaded are people on credit? How negative/positive is their over all yield if you calculate all their holdings?
People exposing themselves to multiple markets based on the idea that the Irish mother financing market is never going to die, this is a tenuous at best. (It would be different if people in the majority had sourced local mortgages in each country they have purchased, but I believe this is not the case for most. Any one any info?)
Perhaps we can have a foreign property for sale graph on daftwatch using their international sales!
It won’t be as lucid as the home grown inventory but none the less a guide in roughly correct direction. Only then can we see correlations.
Will we see people off loading the foreign properties after or before trouble?
Has anyone found anecdotal evidence on the boards/forums of people worrying not just about their Irish property but their foreign one too?
The Spanish market is covered by this forum. (link) I think that the figure of 90,000 resale homes is bandied about on the site to describe the number of units for sale in the Costa Del Sol region alone. The Bulgarian market is beyond my powers of description of mass stupidity and Florida is collapsing.
I knew someone who started up a company (one of the 1st) dealing with Bulgarian property. However, he dealt exclusively with land. He would not touch anything else, as his years in Bulgaria had taught him that construction was simply riddled with mafia.
His (pretty successful) strategy was acquiring land and planning permission (simply a case of well targeted semi-bribe money to the local councils) and then selling-on to foreigners. He eventually sold up to one of the larger companies that now specialise in that part of the world.
The scope for a ‘house of cards’ effect between residential & foriegn property ‘investments’ is rather large IMO.