ISEQ: Up or down? - The Stockmarket Thread


#4265

Only on the ISEQ - it’s still possible to short ADRs in the US and the equivalent in London for multiple listed companies. I believe it is also possible to short the ISEQ financials through an ETF?


#4266

its interesting that earlier in the week a lot of the purchasing was small lot (retail) and unwinding improper shorts, while later we seem to see some instuttional purchasing.
I am still not convinced that there are adequate safeguards in place to prevent a ring a rosy of purchases of the banks by the irish based funds and brokers many of whom are owned by the banks. I am not saying that that has happened, but I could see how it might.


#4267

I think you’re right and it’s inevitable. I blame PMT myself, that is Portfolio Management Theory. This sets the weights of particular sectors and shares within those sectors (as I understand it). So what happens when you have a 3% allocation to BoI and BoI drops by 50%? You double up!

I don’t think they are necessarily following the herd, just being individually stupid in a collectively stupid manner (i.e. all following the same theory).


#4268

Currently trading @ 90c.
https://markets.ft.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z0485100az1865c4c20ff14a80bd906e2556f5aceb

BoI also up @ 59c

https://markets.ft.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z0485100az93fa04fef55046a581cc3438c43e068c


#4269

AIB Currently trading @ 90c.

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:aib

BoI also up @ 59c

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:BIR


#4270

Nice one. LOL


#4271

AIB @1.20
anybody regreting not buying at .0.22c?


#4272

Nope. Nor do I regret not betting on the horse that won the grand national last year. Same thing really.


#4273

Up big today - so we don’t look like a bunch of people who only post bad news…


#4274

That’s flippin great news

lets hope it stays up
If we have one solvent bank that will be brilliant. A start.


#4275

Yep, a few good days has;

AIB @ 1.66 (up 38.9% today)
BoI @ 0.79 (up 27.4% today)
IL&P @ 2.02 (up 16% today)

Pretty much back to where they were 2 weeks ago.

It’s amazing what a little bit of govt. action can do to market sentiment


#4276

Or what a bit of government inaction can do. The kidnappers know now the ransom can’t be paid in full. The cupboard is bare.


#4277

Believe me I ain’t no fan of the current regime and fully appreciate the mire we are in but at least they are appearing to take some action. I know it’s a long way until our new independence day of 1st October 2010 but we have managed to get through 119 days of our 730 day sentence.

Should we launch a campaign to declare it a public holiday :bulb:

Edit: Better again, a bank holiday :laughing:


#4278

I think in the case of the banks we were 1 minute to midnight on the Nationalisation clock but I think we are gone back to about 11.55 now. If the rest of the world looks favourably on the “Bad bank” or the “insure the losses” method, then I think FF will try something like that. They seems to love drawing comparisons with worldwide occurances at the moment. Hence the spring back on AIB and BOI. At the mo AIB have pulled back a bit on the NYSE to $4.10 which is €1.56 (ADR /2 X FX) so we might see a bit of profit taking on the banks tomorrow if there is no follow, though with the Dow staging a strong rally it might be limited. The banks could still go under but if AIB are asking MS to advise on the recap they may have some form of a plan. I think another catalyst for the Iseq is if we get agreement with the social partners, if the agreement is meaningful. It should reduce our spread over the bund and reduce our chances of a downgrade which might result in the international marketing give us a bit of a break for a bit.
The year of the Ox will certainly lead to interesting times.


#4279

Bit of a sell off in AIB this morning. Down 26c @ 1.40 per share.

Are the markets unimpressed with our partnership approach to recovery or is there something else going on??

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:aib

BoI also down, 7c to 0.72 per share.

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:BIR


#4280

Well considering the rise in their value, I think this could be profit taking.


#4281

Looks like you are right Provost, now @ 1.18, -0.48 -28.92%

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:aib


#4282

I also think there was a short covering rally in many of the banks as the shorts decided that there was no chance of nationalisation in the immediate term and they could make more money elsewhere. Add to that, johnboy’s favourite metric - the weight of money; when you work out how much was spent on Irish bank shares in the last few days, it was peanuts. There simply isn’t enough money looking to buy the bank shares to sustain a rally.


#4283

i’ll be on newstalk 106 @ 1.45 to talk about the €20m scheme to rent out ghost estates. any particular points you reckon should be made pm me.


#4284

normal service resumes
1030 am
AIB 1.12 own 15%
BOI 0.56 down 11%
ILP 1.5 down 3%