The ISEQ is proving very unpatriotic.
Its getting the shakes today not at 8866.23 down -148.55
Stop your moaning and cribbin. Down is up remember.
At least it’s doing the right thing and going over the edge of a cliff.
another low 8718.53 DOWN -111.14
to lose 3-5% in 2 days…is that a crash? if this trend continues it will be one of ireland largest stock market crashes. Black friday
CRH down 3%
I reckon 8,000 by close on Friday is possible.
Crh is a steal - I’ll wait and see if it drops more though…
Becuase of eyewatering eircom prices it was assumed that Irish companies had massive takeout/take private premiums and these were priced in to take the iseq to 10000. Nobody moved in though.
Once these unravel in short order ( there is no more takeover market , instead there is a global credit crunch) we should settle down around 6500-7000 by end september.
Nobody is interested, accept it and price it in .
Anglo is getting hammered down three % on the day. Hard to believe this traded at 17.50 only a couple of months ago.
There has been little TV coverage of this but it has to trigger if we stay down here today.
European and US markets are down as well but still showing an impressive yearly upmove. Certainly can’t say that about the ISEQ.
Mr. Random Walk what makes you so bullish on CRH given Irish and US housing markets? Is it getting overdone on negative Irish sentiment? If so is it not like to get dragged down further or would this be greedy?
I know you are not a big technical analysis fan but on broad aggregates and big macro moves I have always found the Fibonacci and elliot wave retracements are good targets. We have a bit to go on this analysis although may be a bit overdone at this point.
I digress this certainly suggests the world is worried about us and our houses. I think we will react more rapidly than the US as their prolonged pain and persistent albeit slow data sets a good example. And this with the US building about 1 million houses a year, maybe 12 times more than us, but with 100 times the population?
Just wondering why you think they are a bargain? Is it because they have a growing business outside Ireland?
I’m wouldn’t have a clue how to pick a stock so I’m also interested in why you think CRH is a good buy at this price. You’ve also said in the past that AIB would be a “buy” for you at a certain price, would you say we’re near that price yet?
AIB has tumbled to 18.30.
Iseq below 8500 now 8469.79.
Wall street is going to have a fun day, opening will be painful. IÂ´ll come back on CRH later, no need to rush
I like the blog by the way (prefer the old format though ) which is why I’m interested in an opinion on CRH and AIB that I’d actually respect, as opposed to hearing Davy’s or Goodbody’s spinning away until something goes wrong and they have to point out the obvious - I’m really becoming very wary of the learned “opinions” of financial institutions!
Times is reporting 7 now as opposed to 6 billion!
I was playing around with the graphs on the ISEQ site and looking on a three year basis, 26/07/04 to 26/07/07, there’s still quite a way down…
Backtrack to this time a year ago and the ISEQ general is pretty much line ball again…
This is the crucial difference - construction (worse, construction driven by cheap foreign money) is just such a big part of the irish economy, compared to everyone else now, or at any time in recent economic history. We’ve used eurozone borrowing (largely to fund construction, but also on direct consumption on the belief that the good times would last - and now sentiment is changing too) and this borrowing has put amounts of money into the economy which are just incredible.
Normally countries have had to rely on a huge trade surplus to create such an influx of money, but we’ve just ‘magically’ created it with borrowing. For comparision, three big ‘export oriented’ countries are:
- Germany - 2,879Bn GDP, 200Bn trade surplus (~7% GDP)
- Japan - 4,367Bn GDP, 66Bn trade surplus (~1.5% GDP)
- China - 2,630Bn GDP, 198Bn trade surplus (~7.5% GDP)When you look at repatrication of profit from foreign owned multinationals, Ireland is relatively close to a zero trade surplus situation - yet we owe 59Bn euro more at the end of 2006 than we did at the of end 2005. Given a 2006 GDP of 176bn, our ‘borrowing surplus’ in that year was over 33% of GDP
Excuse my shock & ignorance here but what you are syaing is that we owe nearly as much as Japan has in trade surplus? Is that right?
I’m not even going to go anywhere near how we can pay this back or even a poriton of it.
The Unwelcome Guest wrote:
That’s not much consolation to the equity investors that bought in at the top of the market last january and these are now nursing sizeable potential losses.
Wonder how many will hold their nerve before the flood gates really open?
Thanks for the comment about the blog, I’m not satisfied with the layout myself.
My opinion on CRH in particular doesn’t differ from the brokers, they both have it as a buy.
I’ve put my thoughts up here rather than pollute this thread further. Read the brokers research for a more indepth explanation of the same views