ISEQ: Up or down? - The Stockmarket Thread


#4261

This is a false rally.

It’s actually scary looking at sites like boards.ie, seeing so many people spunk their cash on banking shares. Even my 'auld fella was talking about going in and buying some AIB shares. Christ, this is a man who has never bought a share in his life and once asked who was this Issac that our Irish Stock Exchange was named after!


#4262

True, looks like a textbook shorting opportunity (assuming I’d ever read a textbook on shorting, and knew how to get around the shorts ban). How do you differentiate between a brief rally and a short squeeze? Do you have to be looking at the figures for shares on loan?

Re: Blowing your cash, has this not been going on since about Oct 07?? Even a few pinsters have been stung!


#4263

Subtlety is an eight letter word in my vocabulary!


#4264

I thought shorting was banned?


#4265

Only on the ISEQ - it’s still possible to short ADRs in the US and the equivalent in London for multiple listed companies. I believe it is also possible to short the ISEQ financials through an ETF?


#4266

its interesting that earlier in the week a lot of the purchasing was small lot (retail) and unwinding improper shorts, while later we seem to see some instuttional purchasing.
I am still not convinced that there are adequate safeguards in place to prevent a ring a rosy of purchases of the banks by the irish based funds and brokers many of whom are owned by the banks. I am not saying that that has happened, but I could see how it might.


#4267

I think you’re right and it’s inevitable. I blame PMT myself, that is Portfolio Management Theory. This sets the weights of particular sectors and shares within those sectors (as I understand it). So what happens when you have a 3% allocation to BoI and BoI drops by 50%? You double up!

I don’t think they are necessarily following the herd, just being individually stupid in a collectively stupid manner (i.e. all following the same theory).


#4268

Currently trading @ 90c.
https://markets.ft.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z0485100az1865c4c20ff14a80bd906e2556f5aceb

BoI also up @ 59c

https://markets.ft.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z0485100az93fa04fef55046a581cc3438c43e068c


#4269

AIB Currently trading @ 90c.

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:aib

BoI also up @ 59c

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:BIR


#4270

Nice one. LOL


#4271

AIB @1.20
anybody regreting not buying at .0.22c?


#4272

Nope. Nor do I regret not betting on the horse that won the grand national last year. Same thing really.


#4273

Up big today - so we don’t look like a bunch of people who only post bad news…


#4274

That’s flippin great news

lets hope it stays up
If we have one solvent bank that will be brilliant. A start.


#4275

Yep, a few good days has;

AIB @ 1.66 (up 38.9% today)
BoI @ 0.79 (up 27.4% today)
IL&P @ 2.02 (up 16% today)

Pretty much back to where they were 2 weeks ago.

It’s amazing what a little bit of govt. action can do to market sentiment


#4276

Or what a bit of government inaction can do. The kidnappers know now the ransom can’t be paid in full. The cupboard is bare.


#4277

Believe me I ain’t no fan of the current regime and fully appreciate the mire we are in but at least they are appearing to take some action. I know it’s a long way until our new independence day of 1st October 2010 but we have managed to get through 119 days of our 730 day sentence.

Should we launch a campaign to declare it a public holiday :bulb:

Edit: Better again, a bank holiday :laughing:


#4278

I think in the case of the banks we were 1 minute to midnight on the Nationalisation clock but I think we are gone back to about 11.55 now. If the rest of the world looks favourably on the “Bad bank” or the “insure the losses” method, then I think FF will try something like that. They seems to love drawing comparisons with worldwide occurances at the moment. Hence the spring back on AIB and BOI. At the mo AIB have pulled back a bit on the NYSE to $4.10 which is €1.56 (ADR /2 X FX) so we might see a bit of profit taking on the banks tomorrow if there is no follow, though with the Dow staging a strong rally it might be limited. The banks could still go under but if AIB are asking MS to advise on the recap they may have some form of a plan. I think another catalyst for the Iseq is if we get agreement with the social partners, if the agreement is meaningful. It should reduce our spread over the bund and reduce our chances of a downgrade which might result in the international marketing give us a bit of a break for a bit.
The year of the Ox will certainly lead to interesting times.


#4279

Bit of a sell off in AIB this morning. Down 26c @ 1.40 per share.

Are the markets unimpressed with our partnership approach to recovery or is there something else going on??

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:aib

BoI also down, 7c to 0.72 per share.

markets.ft.com/tearsheets/perfor … p?s=ie:BIR


#4280

Well considering the rise in their value, I think this could be profit taking.