ISEQ: Up or down? - The Stockmarket Thread


#5521

That post sounds like something straight out of The Onion:
Internet Poster Uses Buzzwords to Explain Random Movements.
“ponzi scheme”, "algos’, “ECB out QE’ing the FED”, “sterilizing monitizations”, “little short interest” “shake out weak shorts”.

Algos never make new highs.
Why mention the “shake out weak shorts” theory when you yourself disprove it in the very next sentence?
A ponzi scheme would collapse without new investors - but the companies traded on the stock market would just as happily exist under their current owners. Therefore it is not a ponzi scheme.
“Sterilizing monitizations”, “ECB out QE’ing the FED” - um…/ *

I’m all in favour of trying to find explanations for stock market moves - but they must be accompanied by valid reasonings.


#5522

we havent made new highs

You missed my point, which was that the ramping tactic may not work this time, since there has been low short interest

It becomes a ponzi scheme when the market is deliberately ramped to attract greater fools. You may take the position that this is not happening. My position is that it is. Are you trading this market?

Um yes, this is factual, though not in common knowledge yet
zerohedge.com/news/one-massi … rilization

ECB Passes €200 Billion In Cumulative PIIGS Bonds Purchases: Now Monetizing 30% More Each Month Than The Fed


#5523

Your question was; why was the market up yesterday.

The stock market jumped yesterday for three reasons
(i) Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving) which is the most important day for US retailers, saw record sales…
(ii) There is a strong view in the market that a decisive move towards fiscal union will be announced or hinted at in the next ten days, ahead of next weeks finance ministers meeting
(iii) with markets having been down for 9 days in a row, and ergo a lot of open short positions, the market saw a lot of short covering and natural buying when faced with this double positive news.

A quick read of the FT would have told you this.

Stock markets react to incremental news…its doesnt matter if all last weeks news or last months news was negative…that is already in the price. If todays news is positive, by and large the market goes up. Thats what happened yesterday.


#5524

1,2 I dont think would cause that type of ramp. On 2, the leaked IMF news had been denied by the time the markets opened
3, I have disagreed with already: No New Shorts In Early November As NYSE Short Interest Drops To 3 Month Low


#5525

I didnt mention IMF news.

I didnt mention shorts in early November. (The 8 day consecutive decline in the FTSE100 was from Nov 15 to Nov 24).

Not sure why you disagreeing with points I didnt make.


#5526

so which news are you talking about? Most of the news over the weekend were rumours which were since refuted

As of the onset of the downtrend, short interest was minimal


#5527

I said nothing about Short interest at the onset of the downtrend.

My comment was about short interest at the conclusion of the downtrend.


#5528

no data on that yet I’m aware of


#5529

I wouldn’t say short interest was minimal
cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

[code]S&P 500 Consolidated - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-13874+
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/22/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT

(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 901,580
COMMITMENTS
53,817 110,744 23,833 694,906 649,763 772,556 784,341 129,024 117,240

CHANGES FROM 11/15/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 3,695)
-8,898 2,605 -7,205 17,383 8,280 1,280 3,680 2,415 15

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
6.0 12.3 2.6 77.1 72.1 85.7 87.0 14.3 13.0

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 578)
85 130 52 240 256 358 407

S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-138741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/22/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT

(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 294,476
COMMITMENTS
21,425 17,669 1,420 201,823 208,412 224,668 227,501 69,808 66,975

CHANGES FROM 11/15/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -10,893)
-9,557 -708 -234 -1,862 -12,138 -11,653 -13,080 760 2,187

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
7.3 6.0 0.5 68.5 70.8 76.3 77.3 23.7 22.7

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 120)
13 16 7 62 54 78 74

E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-13874A
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/22/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT

($50 X S&P 500 INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 3,035,521
COMMITMENTS
231,750 535,165 42,277 2465413 2206756 2739440 2784198 296,081 251,323

CHANGES FROM 11/15/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 72,942)
-34,991 -21,719 3,431 96,225 102,090 64,665 83,802 8,277 -10,860

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
7.6 17.6 1.4 81.2 72.7 90.2 91.7 9.8 8.3

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 549)
81 128 40 214 234 321 377[/code]

if only someone could write an algo to squeeze/short the other algos when they ramped up the market to squeeze the shorts. :unamused:


#5530

Could some of the buying activity represent the return of institutional money to the market via hedge fund subscriptions for December 1st? The volume was low yesterday so it makes sense to me that some of that buying is the result of hedge funds getting some new subs into play.


#5531

I doubt it…I think there is enough fundamental news to justify the upswing.

very good US retail sales data.
decent US housing data.
positive noises out of Europe on fiscal union.
reasonably good Italian bond auction which is a big surprise.


#5532

You taking the piss right?


#5533

no google BTP

reuters.com/article/2011/11/ … 2620111129

google.ie/search?rlz=1C1AFAB … 0&bih=1859


#5534

What u smokin?

I day doesnt make a season, lets see downward revisions later this week

Parallel universe?
todays news of 5th Consecutive Month Of House Price Drops As Case-Shiller Misses Expectations Again

Italian Yields are near their highs while spreads are off their wides


#5535

Slasher i know you know your stuff, so im asking rather than saying. How is the fact that they got them away deemed good news? The rate is ridiculously high and basically unsustainable. So what constitutes a good bond auction? To me it would be if rates were falling towards sustainable levels no?

To me (and what do I know), it only being deemed good because of what happened last week with Germany. But they were offering at 2%, a lot lower than italy.

Insights welcome


#5536

Bid to cover was good which indicates demand; high yield risk hedging rather than fundamental doubts.

Hey, it’s a theory :laughing:


#5537

because it could have been worse (and I hope that doesn’t sound facetious); when average Joes on the Pin [OK, above average :slight_smile: ] are making zombie like predictions anything better than zombie like is positive)

It’s not an exact science


#5538

Cheers lads learning more everyday


#5539

well it didnt take long for those black friday revisions to happen, yes margins matter as well as volume
About Those “Record” Black Friday Sales…


#5540

thats not a revision, its some guy on a blog chatting.

however I take your point, there was undoubtedly strong price competition. Should that be a surprise? Its less of a surprise than record retail sales.

EDIT

the big issue for me in the next week is…will the eurozone break up.

at the moment, the stock market is telling me it won’t (that is to say, if it were going to I think markets would be down 15% or 20% this week. as things stand they are up 4%).

the next question is: will see the ‘Germany exits’ scenario or the PIGS exit scenario…either of which would be bad news for us…though not necessarily upsetting for markets…