ISEQ: Up or down? - The Stockmarket Thread


#5621

Agreed, but if a company exports to a stronger currency area, their competitiveness should be enhanced by the devalaution.

Interesting article in The Guardian:
theguardian.com/money/us-money-blog/2015/mar/08/bull-market-stocks-bonds
I see a lot of sponsored links with forecasts of financial armageddon but they are becoming more common in more reputable main-stream media.
Feels like a rocky ride ahead with unpredictable effects of QE, currency devaluations, stock market and bond bull-runs.
Opinions?

(Not limited to the ISEQ so not sure if this is the correct thread.)


#5622

The problem with bailing on a bull market is that once you’re out there’s no getting back in until a crash comes. You are forced to adopt a position of doom mongering.

Buy and hold for the long term is a less stressful position if you can cope with the odd severe correction.


#5623

Some rise for the DAX today


#5624

Not dissimilar to property investing :laughing:


#5625

The market will fluctuate is all that can be said, I do not think you should get hung up on what is and what is not a bull market. What is important IMHO is if you are getting value in the security you are buying.

If it is a fair price then the condition of the market does not matter very much eg Kerry Group at P/E at 23 - expensive, BHP at P/E 10 - this seems cheap to me.


#5626

London’s FTSE 100 Index climbed above the 7,000-mark today for the first time in its history.

rte.ie/news/business/2015/03 … ndon-ftse/


#5627

Anyone else boggled at the extent of Owen Killian’s redevelopment of 2 Shrewsbury Road? It must be galling for Aryzta shareholders following the share price collapse to gape at his endeavors.


#5628

20% increase over 3 years is not really a collapse :slight_smile:

100% price rises are really sustained into the long run.


#5629

Not a very good performance compared to the rest of the Irish market over that period :stuck_out_tongue:


#5630

Agreed but not really a woe is me event :slight_smile:


#5631

how is the iseq managing to remain so immune to the international market trend right now ?

i imagine were some american fund to offload a tonne of stock , it could roll over very quick


#5632

The ISEQ has not been pumped up by ZIRP in the same manner American (or other) stocks have.
It’s all-time high was in Feb 2007 at 9981.08.
Today it stands at 6,322.30.

In 2007, the DOW hit 14,164.53 before collapsing.
However, it subsequently rose to 18,312.39 in 2015, easily surpassing it’s pre-boom peak.


#5633

the iseq is up just as much since 2009 as the s+p is and when looking at its constituents as a hole ( PE of 23 ) , its far pricier than the s+p or any of the major european indices

irish people dont buy stocks like americans do , is it possible that various american funds have decided to use the irish exchange to boost returns which appear muted in other markets


#5634

Looking grim out there, Im transferring cash to my broker for bargain hunting when it turns, whens it going to turn though?


#5635

My portfolio (self-administered pension) of mostly hand-picked shares is only down 10% YTD, after gaining something like 80% over the last couple of years, so I’m not feeling any pain.

Other than a small amount of index tracking, the only direct exposure I have to the shit stuff (oil, miners, financials) is BP which is down 12% in the last 3 months. And that’s not my worst investment (Tesco!).

I have about 10% cash which I might chuck in if markets go properly pear-shaped.


#5636

I am sitting on a bit of cash which is annoying me so may dip the toes into some of the stronger longer-term US performers, with the intention of holding long-term.

I think you can take the view that we might not be at the bottom, but at the same time take the view that it’s a good time to buy.


#5637

whats the story with smurfit kappa , down nearly 50% from year high , is it the brazilian aquisitions , market hates brazil right now


#5638

valuewalk.com/2016/01/pershing-square-2015-letter/

Pershing Square shareholder note for FY 2015

Ouch but very interesting reading.

Reckon they’re spot on re VRX too.


#5639

You think VRX equity is a good buy?


#5640

Yes, I think it has been oversold.
Decent fundamentals - 12x EV multiple but 5% cash tax rate, capex 3% of revenues, 4.0x interest coverage, FY 2015 P/E of 8.0x, F FY 2016 P/E 6.0x-7.0x.

Legal liabilities big risk but we shall see what comes of that.