ISEQ: Up or down? - The Stockmarket Thread


#5701

oh spare us the insufferable piety , rents in Dublin are not especially high for a European capital , wages in Dublin are well above the average for a European capital


#5702

It is not piety; It is observing people close to me suffering because of parasites piling in to an asset class which also doubles as human shelter. I can’t tell these people to knuckle down and earn more as they already earn what is considered a reasonable wage within their industry internationally.
Although that wouldn’t stop some people here sharing anecdotes about how their immigrant charwoman and her labourer husband can afford to buy in Dublin.

To which European capital does it suit you to compare rents? It is more expenive than Berlin. expatistan.com/cost-of-living/berlin
Average wages are not average wages for those in the rental trap with no means of escape. There are some older high earners who are playing Monopoly in Dublin.

The ladder has been truely pulled up behind those who clambered on to it when it was within grasp.


#5703

Mate your first problem is assuming prices only go upwards.
Every business in the world has been set up to make money. They extract money from the rich and the poor. At the same time, every business is able to make money or loose money. Being a landlord is like any other business.
I’ve rented places I could never afford to buy, the rental yield was very negative. Thankfully there was a landlord willing to speculate on the asset price and willing to rent it to me.

Your anger should be directed at the government for intervening in the market and central banks for keeping interest rates so low people need to speculate in risky assets to get any sort of return.


#5704

Rents in Berlin are cheaper because there is less demand. It’s not complicated. Majority of Germans rent. Do you consider their landlords immoral?


#5705

That’s totally wrong anyhow.
Reports in German media show that Germans are thronging to the larger cities and smaller towns are hollowing out.
The German rental sector is heavily regulated to the benefit of both landlord and tenant.


#5706

Only my profit and tax bill still invested in Lloylds as of today :slight_smile:


#5707

berlin is a famously cheap city , either by german or european standards


#5708

plus no sympathy is shown to dead beat tenants in germany , try evicting a tenant here who either wont pay or trashes the place , your looking at eighteen months if your lucky and zero consequence for the scab tenant


#5709

Ooooooof.

Shares of Valeant VRX -51.46% , one of the industry’s most widely-owned stocks, tumbled more than 50% on Tuesday to about $33 after saying it risked defaulting on its $30 billion debt.

Absolutely delighted to see this horrible company get destroyed. And Bill Ackman along with it? A cherry on top.
A company that was based around predatory pricing of drugs, charging (just one example) anywhere between $200 and $2,500 for a tube of Zovirax… yes, the self same drug that you can buy in your local Irish pharmacy for a tenner.

latimes.com/business/la-fi-l … olumn.html

Valeant was lauded by the usual financial lemmings (as above) and worshipped by duplicitous hedge fund guys like Ackman and Paulson.
If there’s any justice, then zero will be too high a price for it.


#5710

Bill Ackman really is living up to the part of the shepard who is leading the sheep to the slaughter on this, isn’t he? It gets better though. Apparently redemptions forced Ackman to replace equity positions with option calls, which are cheaper to buy, but increase his exposure to any downward movements. I have little sympathy for him or any of his disciples though. Any company can hit trouble at some point, but when you have a company that just seems to lurch from crisis to crisis, there is clearly something structurally wrong. There’s just so many red flags at this stage, I wouldn’t touch this with a 10ft pole.

  1. The delay in submitting the annual report.
  2. The restatement of earnings.
  3. The Philidor scandal.
  4. The massive leverage involed.
  5. The SEC/Federal investigation.
  6. The shoddy (unsustainable) business model.
  7. The history of growth by acquisition.

#5711

:smiley:
ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dcfb5cb2 … z439PsDelk


#5712

It’s clearly not too bullish, the smell that comes off the herd is bullshit!


#5713

Grant’s view March 14

static.ow.ly/docs/g32n05b-gdmt_40OG.pdf


#5714

Thanks! They’re like a seventies m&a outfit, except not as good…


#5715

Anyone any suggestions as to what to invest a pension fund in at present?


#5716

Market is up about 10% from the lows of 2 months ago, a shame because things were starting to get interesting and I was finding some bargains. As a whole, I would be waiting for another dip, however I am seeing small pockets of value. I have been buying some small oil/gas services companies with strong balance sheets. I have also been buying a few of the global banks, which are trading close to 52 week lows. Right now, my pick of the bunch would be Barclays at £1.52.

It’s the cheapest of all the major UK banks because the market doesn’t believe in their latest turnaround plan. I’ve been lucky enough to meet the CEO, and I actually think the market is wrong. The big problem at Barclays is that old management seemed to think the best strategy was to grow the company by building assets. New management has recognised this and done away with that strategy. They are now focused on the core business while cutting out the loss making trash. There’s still 2 years to go, but by that time, they’ll no longer have crappy non-core parts of company dragging on profit.

Also worth taking a look at Bank of America, in a very similar situation (a turnaround bank which is mostly retail, but has an investment bank attached).

My two cents, do your own research, etc.


#5717

Touche Daniel! alternatively, if it was attractive at $60 it must be doubly attractive at $30! 8DD

I’ve had no time yet to look into Valeant’s accounts but I have been burned by association - the entire specialty area is down - equities down 40%+ LTM, 15% to 50% YTD (HZNP, ENDP, MNK, AGN), B/BB unsecured yields up 4% to 6% in some cases. XX

I think risk are now asking PM’s if they actually understand the businesses and where reported growth is coming from. The answer to that is a resounding NO in most cases. Accounts are too opaque, reported “growth” is too bullshitty, GAAP EPS bears no resemblance to Non-GAAP EPS and “core” or “organic” definitions change each quarter. Given the wholesale exit from the sector, there may be lots of value.


#5718

i like prudential the best of all the british financials , bought it a few months ago when it was a good bit cheaper


#5719

Just a follow up on oil companies in case anyone has followed. I owned Chevron, I sold it. I thought there would be more trouble and that the price would go down from about $80 and present an even better buying opportunity. Instead it went up 20% - almost like the market thinks that we’re back to $70 oil already. This is scary for Chevron (and indeed a lot of other big oil companies) as many of these companies are only maintaining the dividend by issuing debt (see below cash flow statement).

https://i65.tinypic.com/9r15d3.png

It’s interesting to speculate on what’s driving all this? From what I can see, low interest rates have driven a lot of investment into dividend paying stocks. It seems to me like there is an awful lot of dumb money (eg suredividend.com/cvx-dividend-aristocrats/) that is chasing companies like Chevron for income (referred to as dividend aristocrats because the dividend always goes up). Because the share price is being supported by people relying on the dividend, this pushes management to maintain it at all costs, even if it forces them to do stupid things like borrow the money to maintain it. If oil can go back to $70 in the next quarter, the crisis is averted for big oil. If it remains below, then I can only see the dividend being cut with a big shake-out as income investors flee.


#5720

XOM not the safest oil play?
Think the divi is about 3.2% and very sustainable?