Now the media moritorium on the election has started the web comes into it’s own.
So I’m predicting 1 of 3 scenarios
a) FF & Lab - (Rabbit falls on his sword) and a desperate ploy to hold onto power that only lasts for 2-3 years. Likelihood: evens
b) FF & SF - a desperate ploy to hold onto power that lasts a year as people can’t believe what they’ve sleepwalked into Likelihood: 3/1
c) A hung dail here we go again… 20/1
Effects on the property market/bubble:
a) Collapse within 6 months
b) Collapse within 3 months
c) If this happens this easily liquify my assets and get the f*** out of dodge she’s gonna go!
No combination of political parties can keep the bubble inflated. The OP did surmise that the big bubble bang could be influenced by who gets into power. I agree that it may influence timings …a tad… but its 3 months here and 3 months there and only a few lucky ones will sell up and escape with cash in that extra 3 month timeframe.
The inevitable is essentially inevitable.
I mainly blame Osama splattering them towers and the ensuing panic among central bankers in 2001 and 2002 .
In terms of policy the government has certainly created some awful regulators who do nothing, ifsra comreg etc. I blame the PDs for that , mainly. I shall vote accordingly .
I remember Mary Harney all too well and her banging on about the* E-Hub of Europe* for years …and us all on eircom dial up the silly bitch.
Election outcome can’t cause a collapse but it can give it a major help along in term of sentiment, as I believe the previous government were instrumental in keeping the illusion going. Bertie stated as much with his debate line about prioritising the propping up of construction.
As for VI’s they don’t come bigger than the government tax take on housing. We assume we live in a low tax economy due to the 20% and 41% rates, but look at the amount of tax you’re paying on housing between Vat and stamp duty.
That pick your party site had me down as FF. It must be broken
That is the real tragedy of the Celtic Tiger. No one ever tried to reign the banks in on their ever-loosening mortgage requirements. They let us borrow up to our ears and were facilitated by their cronies Fianna FÃ¡il and the Progressive Democrats. Bertie and McDowell make me sick when they talk about their “achievements” in the economy.
Considering the history of tight lending practices from Irish banks (pre boom) I wonder if most people felt they were pulling one over on the banks when they got a big mortgage. Rather than thinking they had dug a big hole for themselves?
Will these be the first people to complain when the bank comes looking for its money?
Well whatever way you look at it there will be a left wing influence in the next government. What they’ll want to do around affordable housing and development land hoarding will be a change from the last ten years of a right leaning government.