It had to be done.Election 07/the bubble what's init for me?

Now the media moritorium on the election has started the web comes into it’s own.

So I’m predicting 1 of 3 scenarios

a) FF & Lab - (Rabbit falls on his sword) and a desperate ploy to hold onto power that only lasts for 2-3 years. Likelihood: evens
b) FF & SF - a desperate ploy to hold onto power that lasts a year as people can’t believe what they’ve sleepwalked into Likelihood: 3/1
c) A hung dail here we go again… 20/1

Effects on the property market/bubble:

a) Collapse within 6 months
b) Collapse within 3 months
c) If this happens this easily liquify my assets and get the f*** out of dodge she’s gonna go!

Opinions?

How will a change of government cause a collapse in the housing market?

People talk about a disaster befalling the country if Sinn Féin get in power. I seriously doubt it’d make a jot of difference if they do. The only concession Fianna Fáil would make is the ending of the hospital co-location scheme or a modest increase personal taxation/capital gains tax. You only have to look at Sinn Féin in the North to realise that they’ll abandon all these Marxist pretensions if it furthers them politically.

I guarantee you one thing though, no matter what shower of cunts get elected, we’ll still have crap roads and a rubbish health service.

Agree completely.

No combination of political parties can keep the bubble inflated. The OP did surmise that the big bubble bang could be influenced by who gets into power. I agree that it may influence timings …a tad… but its 3 months here and 3 months there and only a few lucky ones will sell up and escape with cash in that extra 3 month timeframe.

The inevitable is essentially inevitable.

I mainly blame Osama splattering them towers and the ensuing panic among central bankers in 2001 and 2002 .

In terms of policy the government has certainly created some awful regulators who do nothing, ifsra comreg etc. I blame the PDs for that , mainly. I shall vote accordingly .

I remember Mary Harney all too well and her banging on about the* E-Hub of Europe* for years …and us all on eircom dial up the silly bitch.

Mary Harney

The Ministers for Health

(Sorry, couldn’t help myself) :wink:

Mary E-Hub 1998 -2002 .

I’m going to let the internet decide:

pickyourparty.ie/

How about the Irish Fantasy Cabinet from Sky News

Election outcome can’t cause a collapse but it can give it a major help along in term of sentiment, as I believe the previous government were instrumental in keeping the illusion going. Bertie stated as much with his debate line about prioritising the propping up of construction.

As for VI’s they don’t come bigger than the government tax take on housing. We assume we live in a low tax economy due to the 20% and 41% rates, but look at the amount of tax you’re paying on housing between Vat and stamp duty.

That pick your party site had me down as FF. It must be broken :blush: :smiling_imp:

Well, you may well have been in 2002!!! :wink:

That is the real tragedy of the Celtic Tiger. No one ever tried to reign the banks in on their ever-loosening mortgage requirements. They let us borrow up to our ears and were facilitated by their cronies Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats. Bertie and McDowell make me sick when they talk about their “achievements” in the economy.

This is coming from a former PD too.

Considering the history of tight lending practices from Irish banks (pre boom) I wonder if most people felt they were pulling one over on the banks when they got a big mortgage. Rather than thinking they had dug a big hole for themselves?

Will these be the first people to complain when the bank comes looking for its money?

For waht it’s worth I went through each constitency, tried to call the election and came up with:

FF 63
FG 54
Lab 20
Greens 8
PD 4
SF 9
Socialists 2
Ind 6

Only FF/LAb is a viable govt. if this happened. For that to happen Mr Rabbit would have to go. Otherwise it’s hung dail and back again in a few weeks.

Newstalk did a simmilar exercise and came up with:
FF – 66
FG – 49
LAB – 20
SF – 11
GREEN – 9
SOCIALIST - 2
PD – 1 :open_mouth: (Tom Parlon on his todd!)
IND. - 8

Again only FF/Lab doing business with Rabbit gone could save another election.

I suggest this (if it happens) is very bad news for the developers trying to flog that built up supply.

a lot of independents are basically disgruntled FFers who were not nominated like Healy Rae / Mc Hugh in Galway east, yer man in Clare and the blaneyites and mildred fox although she is gone .

Well whatever way you look at it there will be a left wing influence in the next government. What they’ll want to do around affordable housing and development land hoarding will be a change from the last ten years of a right leaning government.

It’s another nail in the coffin.

If the media paint the picture that it’s SF & FF heading into government
Rabitte will save face by claiming to join FF just to keep SF out.

my 2cent

It seems we have voted FF back in without so much as a bloody nose. Now the question is can they manage to avoid a property market blood bath?

The lesson here is don’t underestimate these guys ability to scrap and fight their way out the tightest corner.

Well sure the party faithful were busy in Glasnevin cemetary all day yesterday, exhuming the first preferences and getting the old, vote early, vote often even when dead philosophy moving…

There’s something about this country, people love backing a winner!

JP McManus put €45,000 on Fianna Fail being in the next government!!!

Jesus that’s hardly a vote of confidence from him. I thought it was a racing certainty FF would be in a government of some sort, so I’d have thought he’d stick a million on it.

Cynical suggestion - he was trying to move the odds in favour of FF to help them get back in.

Probably regarded it as a loss leader