It's not even done, it's not even dusted, it's over!

Controversy erupts as RTE label “Desperate” Dan McLaughlin an “economist”, sources at RTE were unavailable for comment when I attempted to contact them earlier.

If the ECB ( as I expect) raises its base rate in sept or oct I shall christen him ‘dopey’ and not ‘desperate’ .

That comment smacked of pure ‘desparation’ I thought .

Nor is there any evidence that the ECB would immediately follow US interest rates down …were they to go down.

The Economist has a very good piece on why this should be so as do others. Overview and links here.

ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/08 … -medicine/

Its funny Desperate should say that, because according to BOI’s 1 and 2 year fixed rate offers, that’s not what they think.

It’s not what the betfair market says either.

sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2 … origin=MRL

I wish an interviewer would ask him when they will decrease their fixed rate offerings to reflect this inevitable reduction in the ECB rates :wink:

The markets are pricing in a 70% chance of an increase but Dan things its done and dusted!

That’s how the free market work Dan, it responds to ‘new’ information and acts accordingly. It would be foolish for central banks to attempt to moneterize the risk away, thus compounding the problem. And in effect hard-wiring the bad decisions that led to the malinvestment, into the economy. The always inflate response is not the solution.

Well Desperate has made three bold predictions there. I wouldn’t bet against him being wrong on ALL THREE. He’s left himself wide open to ridicule. Not that the media will ever hold him account.

Some people may take the decision to borrow large sums of money based on his “advice”, as is his intention I’m sure.

Edited by OW request.

BoI new mortgage approvals must have fallen right off a cliff for Dan to make such an obviously ridiculous statement hoping to get the sales figures back on track.

I dont understand it. Clearly it will reduce their credibility(even more?) and p*ss off many FTB who believe it and buy a house right? They might raise the rates in a few short weeks, doesnt make sense :question:

shouldn’t RTE be getting an opinion from the central bank of Ireland?

people with massive mortgages are desperate to hear any morsel of good news.

grossly misleading is propbably a better term to use than lies :wink: (I’ll let ye who have sinned to re edit your posts!)

Perhaps Dan may be proved right after all.

From RTE:

rte.ie/business/2007/0824/ecb.html

ok done. The Central Bank “senior official” only hinted at a pause, only Dan is saying they’ve peaked.

Of course, if Dan is proved to be right and the ECB rate comes down from here, I will apologise unreservedly.

Edited to appear less bristly. Apologies.

A quote from an anonymous official carries feck all weight. But, it is certainly less likely that rates will be raised in the coming months although the liquidity crunch means it won’t make any difference to “affordability”.

I can’t believe RTE called him a “leading economist” again… :unamused:

It’s about 40-60 in favor of no change now.

I’m not so sure about this; of course it doesn’t carry as much weight as had it been said by JCT himself. However, I’d be surprised if this guy wasn’t expressing the views of the governing council, i.e. I doubt if he was simply giving his own views. I’d bet on a rate pause unless we see a very calm period between now and then on the financial markets and that’s difficult to imagine. Even if the ECB were to raise rates in September it’s difficult to see how the market volatility will not continue for months, maybe even leading to a full blown recession (perhaps worldwide) and if this scenario unfolds then we will obviously enter the downward slope of a rate cycle.

And we all know that lowering rates = no more recession, look at Japan, I am sure their low IRs will kick start their economy any decade now.

Being from a real science background economics and economists can sometimes really piss me off. Low IRs stimulating growth and high IRs dampening it have at best a casual relationship yet it is taken as gospel.

I understand why it should remove money from the economy and hence dampen demand but it DOESN’T WORK!!!

Nothing, and I mean nothing, that involves the behaviour of large groups of humans is predictable or repeatable by a given means. The fact that you do one thing once and people react one way does not mean (and I would almost go so far as to eliminates the possibility of ) the group will behave the same way again.

I am not saying that groups do not predictably or repeatably react to a given emotion (i.e. fear, elation, need) it is just the means of eliciting that emotion that is not repeatable.

IRs are just such a case, Central Bankers move on, please learn a new trick.

I shall also have to join that queue of abject unbelievers Flash. Shall we hold hands as we walk to the altar to supplicate .