The emigration run rate has increased and is now running at around 800 a week, NET. That would correspond to around 1200 new empties a month, every month. The only thing propping the population up is the increased birth rate of recent years…and babies do not buy houses or form households not even on planet Marc Coleman.
Furthermore we are completing around 1000 new units a month, even now. Therefore we are now adding another 25,000 empties (less obsolescences ( unknown) gross) a year to the existing pile and the ‘contribution’ from emigration will continue to rise inexorably over the next two years to the point where we will be adding 30,000 new empties a year by 2012 even at derisory rates of construction.
Even if we ‘retire’ 30,000 units a year from a mixture of obsolecence, knocking 2 semis into one and flattening really ghostly estates we are only standing still with our existing 350,000 empties ( including holiday homes mind) .
20 Somethings are POURING out the gate and they are the prime household formation cohort.
Those CSO stats , population by age bracket in 000s
Age " 2005 2006A 2006B 2007 2008 2009 2010
15 - 19 " 292.8 290.3 290.9 286.0 283.9 278.6 273.3
20 - 24 " 339.5 342.5 347.5 347.8 334.0 304.8 275.7
25 - 29 " 345.2 373.1 375.2 405.1 416.7 413.4 392.2
30 - 34 " 335.8 349.4 347.9 358.0 366.9 371.4 378.2
35 - 39 " 312.1 322.1 320.4 331.7 342.1 348.0 349.0
40 - 44 " 294.1 301.3 299.8 305.8 310.2 312.5 315.3
2006A = CSO estimate based on QNHS or census
2006B = Actual Census I think.
Tight correlation shows good data collection ability to 2Packs mind.
Where is Ciarán Cuffes report on the empties …anybody ???
I don’t know where Ciaran Cuffe’s report is - it was due in September 2010 and I guess it will be made available on the environ.ie government website. It is likely to show 80-100,000 empties but remember that the report has a limited remit, this is from Rob Kitchin at NIRSA
“I would expect the DEHLG house count to come in well under the 120K rate (probably nearer the CIF rate). It only has reference to post-April 2007 housing estates where there is vacancy above 10%. It therefore a) excludes estates where vacancy is below 10%, b) excludes unoccupied/unfinished one-off housing, c) it assumes that estates started prior to April 2007 are both finished and have occupancy levels above 90%. There are lots of houses in pre-2007 estates that are empty; the same with one-offs. Irishpropertywatch.com reports about 115K houses for sale in state and 20K for rent. In other words, it’s a partial survey and we’ll need to wait for census 2011 for a fuller picture.” namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/ … n-inquiry/
So in the coming days the media is likely to go mad with “Vacancies far less than previously reported”-type stories. But the key for the immediate future is population movement and as 2Pack says in particular emigration. By the way emigration in Y/E April 2010 was only 200 more than in 2009 (65000) but the native-Irish emigration grew 50% whilst the low-hanging Accession returns declined. If this trend continues then emigration will be far more than 35k net in y/e April 2011.
It is not needed, we ground the stats and came up with 300,000 + 50,000 holiday homes. That is that really. Rob Kitchin confirmed it as did some other consultants but the Pin covered this 2 years ago and more.
Now we must ADD to those figures. Currently ( q1 and q2 2010 ) around 90% of ALL planning permissions are for ONE OFFS frequently on FAMILY LAND but these are hedges against Eco nutters blocking planning permissions ( or indeed Cuffe doing so) and will largely lie empty IF built at least from my analysis of the local ones around here.
Only 200 NON one offs got planning permission in both Q1 and Q2 2010. If you ban one offs the number will be nearly 0.
How many in Leitrim and Longford?? For every iteration of the words “smart” or “green” in Cowens speech you must reduce the eventual target by 10,000 and for use of the oxymoronic “smart and green” together make that 20,000