It's The Empties Stoopid ( Part the XVIII - Emigration)

The emigration run rate has increased and is now running at around 800 a week, NET. That would correspond to around 1200 new empties a month, every month. The only thing propping the population up is the increased birth rate of recent years…and babies do not buy houses or form households not even on planet Marc Coleman. … popmig.pdf

Furthermore we are completing around 1000 new units a month, even now. Therefore we are now adding another 25,000 empties (less obsolescences ( unknown) gross) a year to the existing pile and the ‘contribution’ from emigration will continue to rise inexorably over the next two years to the point where we will be adding 30,000 new empties a year by 2012 even at derisory rates of construction.

Even if we ‘retire’ 30,000 units a year from a mixture of obsolecence, knocking 2 semis into one and flattening really ghostly estates we are only standing still with our existing 350,000 empties ( including holiday homes mind) .

20 Somethings are POURING out the gate and they are the prime household formation cohort.

Those CSO stats , population by age bracket in 000s

Age "      2005 2006A 2006B 2007 2008  2009  2010
15 - 19 " 292.8 290.3 290.9 286.0 283.9 278.6 273.3
20 - 24 " 339.5 342.5 347.5 347.8 334.0 304.8 275.7
25 - 29 " 345.2 373.1 375.2 405.1 416.7 413.4 392.2
30 - 34 " 335.8 349.4 347.9 358.0 366.9 371.4 378.2
35 - 39 " 312.1 322.1 320.4 331.7 342.1 348.0 349.0
40 - 44 " 294.1 301.3 299.8 305.8 310.2 312.5 315.3

2006A = CSO estimate based on QNHS or census 
2006B = Actual Census I think. 

Tight correlation shows good data collection ability to 2Packs mind.

Where is Ciarán Cuffes report on the empties …anybody ???

You Blasphemer 2Pack !

The Great Marcus Colemanballsus has spoken … and lo, it shall come to pass :

A ‘piece … fit enough for Jahovah’ no doubt.

I don’t know where Ciaran Cuffe’s report is - it was due in September 2010 and I guess it will be made available on the government website. It is likely to show 80-100,000 empties but remember that the report has a limited remit, this is from Rob Kitchin at NIRSA

“I would expect the DEHLG house count to come in well under the 120K rate (probably nearer the CIF rate). It only has reference to post-April 2007 housing estates where there is vacancy above 10%. It therefore a) excludes estates where vacancy is below 10%, b) excludes unoccupied/unfinished one-off housing, c) it assumes that estates started prior to April 2007 are both finished and have occupancy levels above 90%. There are lots of houses in pre-2007 estates that are empty; the same with one-offs. reports about 115K houses for sale in state and 20K for rent. In other words, it’s a partial survey and we’ll need to wait for census 2011 for a fuller picture.” … n-inquiry/

So in the coming days the media is likely to go mad with “Vacancies far less than previously reported”-type stories. But the key for the immediate future is population movement and as 2Pack says in particular emigration. By the way emigration in Y/E April 2010 was only 200 more than in 2009 (65000) but the native-Irish emigration grew 50% whilst the low-hanging Accession returns declined. If this trend continues then emigration will be far more than 35k net in y/e April 2011.

We need the “2Pack for Dummies” Scott Pilgrim vs the World Empties Calculation !

It is not needed, we ground the stats and came up with 300,000 + 50,000 holiday homes. That is that really. Rob Kitchin confirmed it as did some other consultants but the Pin covered this 2 years ago and more.

Now we must ADD to those figures. Currently ( q1 and q2 2010 ) around 90% of ALL planning permissions are for ONE OFFS frequently on FAMILY LAND but these are hedges against Eco nutters blocking planning permissions ( or indeed Cuffe doing so) and will largely lie empty IF built at least from my analysis of the local ones around here.

Only 200 NON one offs got planning permission in both Q1 and Q2 2010. If you ban one offs the number will be nearly 0.

See recent stats. … anperm.pdf

Yeah, but Cowen announced 300,000 new jobs today. In your face 2Pack 8)

And remember sweary mary said all those emigrants are just heading off to to see the world for a few years. They’ll all be back to take up those well paid jobs in the knowledge economy.

Then they’ll get down to some serious baby-making to hit that target of 5 million by 2020.

Does that mean that everyone employed from now on would have their own office?

How many in Leitrim and Longford?? For every iteration of the words “smart” or “green” in Cowens speech you must reduce the eventual target by 10,000 and for use of the oxymoronic “smart and green” together make that 20,000 8)

Here is the plan for 300,000 jobs , it has “smart” in the title for -10,000 jobs before you even open it … o_2015.pdf

I reckon -40,000 jobs, more if you count uses of the word “greenfield” .

It’s a good thing none of the other countries have thought of doing this to address their joblessness. Perhaps we should only publish it in Irish so they never discover our plan, the pesky kids. is always good on these type of report. Here’s his take

Personally, it reminds me of Ali G’s flip-chart presentation of his ice-cream glove ti US investors.

thing that bugged me about those 300,000 jobs was the answer to the question “and how will you do that then” appeared to be missing.

The so called plan was yesterdays news. We have 350,000 ordinarily empty gaffs and will have 400,000 in 2 years of which NAMA will only own at most 40,000 . What to do ??

Just putting 2 and 2 together…

300,000 empties / 300,000 jobs, are they going to start employing people to squat?

Everyone would get own office. I like it! I’m sick of open space.

What you do is pay the 300,000 to remove the window ledges from the 300,000 empties. Hey presto a ‘no-ledge economy’.

Can someone please ban Duplex XX :mrgreen:

All depends on wheather the empties have been fitted with proper toilets or not.