January exchequer returns: Tax down 660million

In fairness the weather would not have helped one bit,

I know of places that had bear skeleton staff for first 2 weeks, told dont come in, dont need yeah…

Also how many lost days were there for employees unable to get to work, even if they were allowed too… Sure maybe they went shopping (Sarc)

Feb and march data will be key…

Massive declines and nothing goes straight down…

Expect something like the rate of decreases is slowing in Feb/March news media…

You know the 2nd derivative BS…

and anyway…random musings…

He also said rises in unemployment will ease up this year. Of course, left hanging in the air was the self-evident corollary: that’s because by that stage we’ll have 500,000 people unemployed…just about everyone who could have lost their job will have done. And not only that, we’ll have to completely re-invent the economy in order to find brand new jobs for every single one of those people because they ain’t going back to doing what they were doing during the fake boom.

Still, the CEO’s of the likes of Coillte and the ESB earn €400,000+pa, Gardai are on an average €60k, professional fees and services have hardly budged in price, average house prices are 10x average salaries, we have the highest personal indebtedness in the world (probably), our national debt is spiralling, the Unions are on de facto strike, NAMA hasn’t even started sucking up our money yet, the banks are zombies which is killing wealth creation…

And yet I have to listen to these ****s on the radio in the morning and 6-1 in the evening saying we’ve turned a corner? I’m pretty close to not giving a toss any more it’s just so unbearable.

“The big freeze hit the January sales” said the man on RTE nothing to see move on please

If cancer rates go up, will that be two bright spots?

or cavities in teeth due to removal of twice yearly cleaning on PRSI.

Right. Not too sure about January because the weather was a factor. Here is the outturn.

Over January 2009

Income down €700m

Expenditure only down €200m

Relative position down €450m

VAT and Income tax alone down €450m between them.

We are asked to assume that expenditure would have been the same as outturn but that income should have been higher in January 2010 . I still cannot see how they would have clawed in more than €200m extra and then the relative position…the GAP between income and expenditure would still have been €200m worse than it was in January 2009.

I thought the cutbacks in 2009 were supposed to CLOSE the gap between income and expenditure rather than widen it. It ain’t working.

If we do not see an improvement by this time next month we are looking at yet another emergency budget in April/May :frowning: This time they will have to tackle the public service pensioners too !!

January weather was not a factor on yesterday’s figures - can we at least nail that lie on the head.

January VAT is not collected until March and January Income Tax will not be paid until February at the earliest and all the other taxes from activity in January does not get collected for months and into next year in some cases.

Net effect is that spinning that the low take is due to the Weather is just that - spinning.

Anybody any idea what raising the retirement age by a year for qualification for the OAP would save in the year it was introduced? Thanks

What costs more, the OAP or the dole? Raising the retirement age wont help the unemployment rate.

So I wonder will the bad weather actually impact on feb/march/april’s tax take? If it does we are going to be in yet deeper shit.

Bingo! That means we can expect VAT to be down just as much again Y-O-Y.

Same thing last night on the late debate radio one. Totally lost on everyone these returns are for the end of 09, some are liable for last 4 months others the last 2 months end of 09 VAT.

EDIT: We’ll see the “snow” effect come through in the Jan/Feb returns in March but it won’t be the main component of the general further collapse about to be witnessed.

Oh well dratty drat drat and drat so.

The budget singularly failed to narrow the income / expenditure gap in absolute terms and even more so in relative terms. Emergency budget cannot wait till May then can it unless some very nasty surprise makes it into the Finance Act in March or thereabouts ??

Emergency Budgets don’t cut it any more.

Give life a chance deny Fianna Fail power forever.
This regime has had its day.

I do not think we will see a budget per se. I reckon if by the March figures the deterioration has not halted the government will just announce further spending cuts in April. Most likely cuts to capital spending, social welfare and public service pensions. Reversing the social welfare and public service pensions exemption in the budget leaves them a few hundred million they can get in plus say another 10% cut in child benefit from say July 2010 will bring in circa €125million. Other cuts to ODA etc could bring in another few million.

We will see the probably excise duty cuts reversed seeing as they evidently had no effect.

Hello default and IMF, thats one thing guaranteed on the outcome of these figures. We are already €880 odd milion off our budget projections, unemployment rose in January. Tax take despite the income and pension levies is way down. February and March will be an absolute calamity. We are borrowing €500 million a week to stay afloat. How much will it cost to service the debt in 2010. There’s a shortfall already there of €25 billion, thats before NAMA and the bank recapitalisation.

Its all over, its only a matter of time before the IMF Fat Lady sings. We are effectively bankrupt. The Greeks have nothing on us.

2010 could well be a pivotal moment in our history. McWilliams was right, we are our way to becoming the Uruguay of Europe, riches to rags. We fucking blew it. Thanks Cowen you incompetent buffoon.

300 million euros has to be found some where to mend all those leaking pipes and a lot of the minor roads are falling apart after the frost, we are looking at a massive bill for that as well.

Monthy Tax take for 2009 (bn)
Jan 09 3.70
Feb 09 2.10
Mar 09 2.70
Apr 09 1.60
May 09 3.40
Jun 09 2.30
Jul 09 2.89
Aug 09 2.10
Sep 09 2.96
Oct 09 2.35
Nov 09 4.66
Dec 09 2.28

Total (bn) 33.04

Yes, and apparently they were only out by €30m with projected deficit