Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster


#201

Japan’s trade deficit widens and GDP falls despite 33% yen devaluation - -> finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 8978.shtml


#202

Japan enters recession (once again)

uk.businessinsider.com/japan-q3-gdp-enters-recession-2015-11?r=US&IR=T


#203

Wages not moving in a globalised economy despite debt fuelled inflation? Priceless…


#204

Fukushima, how many Nuclear Power plants have melted down? How much radiation contamination can the Japanese population take before they are all dead.


#205

:open_mouth:

also, does the *“Bubble prophet (still) fear new disaster?” *
or did he not actually have a clue what he was talking about?


#206

New strain of flesh eating bacteria active in Japan and discovered also in UK. Resistant to antibiotics emerges. No wonder we are being told to reduce our intake of bacon and red meat, which I don’t agree with, as we need iron and protein.


#207

I reckon the radiation has already killed all the people. It’s only zombification by the flesh eating bacteria that keeps 'em moving!


#208

Toshiba forecasts massive $4.5 billion annual loss - -> money.cnn.com/2015/12/21/investi … g-scandal/


#209

Japan goes negative

Surprise move to negative interest rates

reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-decision-idUSKCN0V70A7


#210

Just the next step in the currency war - nothing to do with “monetarist” ideas that it increases lending. Remember, banks don’t lend reserves, so now they’ll just move any excess reserves into government bonds (which are really just reserves with a term). Net effect will: 1) lower government yields, 2) reduce interest payments to private sector, 3) weaken currency and that’s their main aim.

I think the most interesting thing here, and it shows how little most macro-driven market participants actually understand what’s going on, is that it was really the weakness of JPY vs USD that forced the Chinese to devalue their Yuan - because Yuan (being pegged to USD) vs Yen was increasing far too much for Chinese competitivity.
So China devaluing their currency drops the stock market 10% – but Japan doing the same today (and essentially pressuring China to devalue again) puts stocks up :laughing:


#211

“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’ - -> zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-3 … t-bank-run


#212

Even for Zerohedge - that’s an awful lot of shite in one article.

Since inception Zerohedge has been calling the collapse of the Japanese financial system, one would think they might question their diagnosis; alas these days conviction masquerades as knowledge.

As I said, negative rates are functionally just another tax on deposits; and in this instance one more bullet in a misguided currency war.
QE increases reserves; negative interest rate decreases reserves; but the monetarists try to tell you they both have the same effect, increased lending :laughing:.


#213

Japan may ultimately follow own advice to China - capital controls, - Reuters column.


#214

Yeah, that’s all completely wrong too.
“wipe out public finances” :unamused: all rubbish.


#215

Japan is a creditor, so it could wipe out it’s debt with its credit, so it’s not that bad saying the BOJ is the only buyer of government bonds - fact is the government doesn’t need to go to the markets. It’s the usual manufacturing economy success story.

Except, the BOJ has gotten too involved and now buys up half of the Japanese ETFs in existence.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/ … for-kuroda

So instead of giving back to the public - they are socializing the ownership of businesses - this is a recipe for disaster.


#216

The Japanese 10 year government debt went negative today for the first time ever.

Where do they go from here? They’re already buying up all their bonds, they’re already buying chunks of equities? Could we actually see some sort of helicopter drop of Yen for Japanese citizens?


#217

Japanese Debt increasing, now greater than the combined GDP of Germany, France and the UK. Chernoble brought down the Russian (ruble) economy, could Fukushima do likewise to the yen.


#218

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics had collapsed internally for a long time prior to Chernobyl and was coasting along on the back of high commodity prices, the ruling politburo just acknowledged it had run out of steam by the late 80s and chucked in the towel only to reorganise under Putin a decade later. In terms of scale the great patriotic war (world war II) and the purges preceding that war were a far greater disaster for the Russians and their satellites in terms of economic and human destruction. Chernobyl was coincidental to the Soviet collapse.

What will eventually finish off Japan, if they don’t all die of old age will be the collapse of the Yen. The bankers and industrial conglomerates have been trying desperately to kill it for decades now, eventually they will succeed.

Japan’s ‘Abenomics’ on the ropes as yen soars, markets plunge - -> dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/ar … lunge.html


#219

Home, office safes gain popularity - -> the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002757143

Minus interest rates hit the “retirement assets”! Hit the all-deposits, government bonds, insurance, pension -> google translate]

Say complaints to the negative interest rates emphasis only yield slow to bank “pocket money” maintain (1/2 page) -> google translate]

Japanese satire - [Contributed] minus interest rates uneasy Watanabe -> google translate]


#220

Just to point out how completely wrong those people predicting the implosion of Japan’s bonds are…

Japan issued ten year debt at negative interest rates this week.

Good post explaining why they’ve all been wrong here:
“Japan – another week of humiliation for mainstream macroeconomics”
bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33094

key point:
"The funds that the non-government sector uses to buy the bonds, ultimately come from the past deficits run by government in the first place!"
spot on.