Jim Power forecasts 5-10pc price fall for 08

Also on Newstalk he referred to confidence in the property market as ‘shattered’ and that activity in the market ‘has just died’. He is also forecasting 3pc growth with 55k housing starts - optimistic?

You sure you weren’t hallucinating while listening to the radio? :laughing:

I always had thought of Jim to never ‘talk down the market’ :open_mouth:

I heard it too,

Is it me, or do you begin listening to these people on the radio and pray for the presenter to shut the Fu** up whilst the “expert” gets on with it.

As my boss says, “never miss an oportunity to say nothing”

So thats 8% this year(+5% inf) + 10%next year(+5%infl)

=28%
drop on the 06 peak due in 2009??? :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth:

That is a huge crash…

Not at all, the quotes are absolutely what he said. This is the second ‘bull’ in two days that I heard sound positively downbeat and ‘shattered’ themselves. Geoff Tucker was the other one.

A bit on the high side: 7pc + 5pc inf. for 07 and 5-10pc + 3pc inf. for 08 - 20-25pc fall in real terms with 12-17pc in nominal terms which in reality is the figure that 99pc of people will fix on.

In the words of Jim: “I’m not a doomsayer, I’m just calling it as I see it.”

Which is different to the rest of us of course.

Where have all the bulls gone?

You won’t hear a peep out of them before the budget.

Ah but there was also his call for SD reduction wrapped up in his prediction

rte.ie/business/2007/1128/economy.html

Power is obviously playing the beal bocht because he realises that no amount of “economist” spin can solve the housing market woes. I’m guessing he thinks these crocodile tears will be enough to persuade Bertie and the lads to reform stamp duty.

Disingenuous tripe.

13 months ago, he was predicting 5% house price growth in 2007 - a whopping 12% off the eventual “growth” rate of -7%.

He also predicted “More modest, but still positive expectations are probably in order” for the ISEQ in 2007 - so barring a year-end rally of biblical proportions, his prediction for 2007 is out by 30%+.

Someone here commented on how Jim had gone all quiet recently, probably in the hope that we’d all forget last years predictions so he could some back today as the “honest economist” who tells it like it is.

Interestingly, I didn’t hear him mention the “fundamentals” once on Newstalk this morning!

  • read his 2007 outlook here

Actually on Newstalk he seemed to dismiss the notion that SD reform would revive the market pointing to the earlier FTB SD measures as having had no impact whatsoever.

I wonder how much of this ‘adjustment’ of outlook by these noted bears is aimed at their employer’s shareholders ?

In the corporate world you can get yourself into a lot of hot water if the regulatory agencies think your misleading your shareholders, customers is fine, shareholders never !

I expect earnings forcasts for all the major lenders to be pretty grim reading. Hence why the cheerleaders have stopped spinning.

Worse again

didn’t Bof I refuse to give guidance for 2008?

effectively saying they had no idea what was going to happen!!!

surely they would have been better off being pessimistic rather than admitting they were completely clueless!!

Lads,lassies,
how will we have 5% inflation with banks cutting lending and the circulation of money drastically falling in the economy. We wont at best/worst we will revert to the European average. Everyone posting here seems to think inflation is some sort of exogenous variable. It isn’t it is directly related to the creation of money by the banks and the speed at which this money is transferred around the economy. Personally I think as the house price bubble deflates, as unemployment rises, as government spending gets tighter, as employment taxes steady themselves or rise again (that was then this is now), as the pool of labour increases (layoffs in construction, conveyancing, breakfast rolls, EAs, car dealerships etc the cost of services will go down, inflation will go down.
Personally I think we will undergo a deflationary period similiar to Japan.
BTW our interest rates will also be entirely unsuitable as the property bubble will effect the EU much less than ireland, UK, US etc. Rates could even go up! BTW the real rate of interest here will go even higher as low inflation/deflation sets in. (real rate = ECB-inflation)

This is an aside from the general argument and is no way reducing the severity of the above but is crucial to the next few years. Yes commodities will stay expensive and increase but this is only one factor in many. Farmers (who actualyy farm as opposed to sell sites) will be the one section who wins. Their incomes will go up their costs will go down.

Anyways I see a 25% pull back without the inflation. Just being pedantic.

BB

To be fair to Jim, he has a second home/holiday home in Waterford as far as I can recollect, so he has to talk up the market!

This is the same Jim whose main line of argument against Morgan Kelly on telly the day after the famous ‘future shock property crash’ program was to bleat the word “Fundamentals” lots of time without enumeration or dissection .

He believed the “Fundamentals” would prop the bubble up…aka the soft landing theory.

The “Fundamentals” are still the same Jim, why have you chosen to interpret them differently ???

The “Fundamentals” were your argument as to why Morgan was wrong , except that Morgan was and is right as it happens.

Why should I be surprised???