Jobs and Unemployment 2011-16: How FG/Labour Gov performed

With QNHS Q2 2013 stats out this week, we can do a comparison of Jobs and Unemployment figures since the Gov came into office (Kenny was elected Taoiseach 9 March 2011.)

If we compare Q2 2011 to Q2 2013 we can see that
cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releas … q22013.pdf

All figures in €000s
Labour Force: fell from 2,178.7 Q2 2011 to 2,170.7 Q2 2013 (a drop of 8,000 people or 0.37%)
[A Bad thing]

In employment: rose from 1,861.3 Q2 2011 to 1,869.9 Q2 2013 (a rise of 8,600 or 0.46%)
[A Good thing]
-of which full-time: fell from 1,423.8 Q2 2011 to 1,417.8 Q2 2013 (a drop of 6,000 or 0.42%)
[A Bad thing]
-of which part-time, not underemployed: rose from 300.4 Q2 2011 to 302.8 Q2 2013 (a rise of 2,400 or 0.80%)
[A Good thing]
-of which part-time, underemployed: rose from 137.1 Q2 2011 to 149.4 Q2 2013 (a rise of 12,300 or 9.0%)
[A Bad thing]

Unemployed: fell from 317.4 Q2 2011 to 300.7 Q2 2013 (a drop of 16,700 or 5.3%)
[A Good thing]
-of which seeking full-time work/future job-starter: fell from 277.4 Q2 2011 to 257.0 Q2 2013 (a drop of 20,400 or 7.4%)
[A Bad thing as less seeking full-time work]
-of which seeking part-time work: rose from 26.5 Q2 2011 to 34.2 Q2 2013 (a rise of 7,700 or 29.1%)
[A Bad thing as not seeking full-time work]
-of which seeking work as self-employed: fell from 13.5 Q2 2011 to 9.5 Q2 2013 (a drop of 4,000 or 29.6%)
[A Bad thing as small and medium sized enterprises help economies]

Unemployment rate %: fell from 14.6 Q2 2011 to 13.9 Q2 2013
[A Good thing. However, as seen above, there was a drop of 8,000 people in the Labour Force in the period vs a drop of 16,700 Unemployed. So a Good thing by 8,700 net]

Edit: a few decimals were wrong
Edit 2 27/7/16: Just updated the title to reflect this is now past tense

Obvious question - how many years, at a rate of 8,700 a year, will it take to get to 5 or 6% unemployment.

10 years?

Thankfully our emigration rate will get us there faster!

Well I was goin by the 8,700 net figure that includes the drop in the labour force which takes emigration into account.
It of course assumes emigration will not keep increasing but it could very well be near a peak as it is hitting rates not seen since the 50s.

If not 10 yrs then how long? I`d like to see other people estimate

The obvious answer is never with the current policy. Unless you change to the way unemployment is counted

Jobless rate in Germany according to the news yesterday was 6.8%. Still newsworthy even if they have it under control and Germany isn’t stuffing people in to makework schemes or work for free schemes.
Net immigration last year was 340,000 and is being allowed in response to Germany’s skill shortage.
It appears there will always be a percentage of the workforce who are effectively unemployable even in Germany where they have a 4 stream educational system (from age 10-12 onward) which prepares kids to go to university or skilled training or semi-skilled training or unskilled work depending on their abilities. Social welfare is also not very generous and people are incentivised in to work.
3% jobless figure used to be considered full employment but it looks like that as jobs get more complex 5 to 6% is full unemployment unless you use of the stick of bare subsistence welfare payments.

Ah yes, my mistake.

If a net 10k jobs was created every year the unemployment rate would be 9.7% after 10 years.
If a net 15k jobs was created every year the unemployment rate would be 7.6% after 10 years.
If a net 20k jobs was created every year the unemployment rate would be 5.6% after 10 years.
If a net 25k jobs was created every year the unemployment rate would be 3.5% after 10 years.

If a net 40k jobs was created every year the unemployment rate would be 6.5% after 5 years.

Something drastic needs to occur. Fundamental changes.

These days I’m employing, as I can afford it, 3 persons on a very very part-time basis.

These are all contractors. Jobs as they come up.

All of the contracts that I use have other employments.

I adopt a very flexible employment strategy with them. I tell them I have a job, we have agreed rates, they do the work, they get paid.

I believe it is impossible given the minimum wage rules, and social welfare payments system to compete with the state.

I think this is the key area where FG/Labour have failed.

They haven’t made employment any more attractive than the alternatives.

I agree. I know a lot of people who work three days a week so as to keep welfare payments. Some have had option to increase to almost full hours but it’s not worth their while

Fundamental changes require VI’s getting hurt.
It will not happen unless we go bust.

If our salaries and costs came down in line with the UK, I’ve little doubt we’d soar out of this mess.
But too many VI’s benefit out of our high cost structure.

The perfect example is the broadcasting charge.
RTE, as a publicly-funded broadcaster, is long past it’s sell-by date.

The government could easily scrap the licence fee and sell off RTE.
But no.
Not only are they adamant about maintaining the status quo, but they are actively solidifying it in the face a sea-change in how the public actually use the media.

The broadcasting fee is a direct response to the ‘threat’ that is consumers changing their habits.

Fundamental change is hard to achieve when you have some of the most powerful forces of the state actively preventing it from happening.

Change? But why, the fundamentals are still sound…aren’t they??? :open_mouth:

Today, for the first time ever, CSO have released

Quarterly National Household Survey
Employment in Full-Time Equivalents
Quarter 2 2007-2013

cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releas … ll2013.pdf

This allowed us to compare Government performance since taking office March 2011 to present day.

Table 4 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment (ILO) for persons aged 15 years and over classified by age group

Total FTE employment (€000s)
15-24: was 131.6 Q2 2011. Now 116.4 Q2 2013 (a drop of 15,200 or -11.6%)
[A Bad thing]
25-44: was 931.7 Q2 2011. Now 930.0 Q2 2013 (a drop of 1,700 or -0.18%)
[A Bad thing]
45+: was 595.1 Q2 2011. Now 617.9 Q2 2013 (a rise of 22,800 or +3.8%)
[A Good thing]

Total FTE employment: was 1,658.4 Q2 2011. Now 1,662.1 Q2 2013 (a rise of 3,700 or 0.22%)
[A Good thing]

  • of which Male: was 936.3 Q2 2011. Now 944.5 Q2 2013 (a rise of 8,200 or +0.88%)
    [A Good thing]
  • of which Female: was 722.2 Q2 2011. Now 717.6 Q2 2013 (a fall of 4,600 or -0.64%)
    [A Bad thing]

Conclusions from above reports showing data of QNHS Q2 2013 + Employment in Full-Time Equivalents Quarter 2 2007-2013

Since the FG/Labour Government entered office:

  1. Numbers in employment: rose from 1,861.3 persons Q2 2011 (or FTEs of 1,658.4) to 1,869.9 persons Q2 2013 (or FTEs of 1,662.1)
    [a rise of 8,600 or 0.46% persons; or just 3,700 or 0.22% FTEs]

  2. Total FTE employment for 15 -24 year olds has fallen 15,200 or -11.6%
    [A very Bad thing]

  3. Total FTE employment for 25 -44 year olds has fallen 1,700 or -0.18%
    [A slightly Bad thing]

  4. Total FTE employment for 45+ year olds has risen 22,800 or +3.8%
    [A Good thing]

So the younger generations are suffering disproportionally while the older voting population who enjoyed the benefits of the boom are insulated from the depression.

I must return back to Ireland when I’m an aul fella as the country appears to love aul wans and aul fellas.

QNHS Q3 2013 stats are out
cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespu … q32013.pdf

We can do a comparison of Jobs and Unemployment figures since the FG/Labour Government came into office (Kenny was elected Taoiseach 9 March 2011.)

If we compare Q2 2011 to Q3 2013 we can see

All figures in €000s
Labour Force: rose from 2,178.7 Q2 2011 to 2,182.1 Q3 2013 (a rise of 3,400 people or 0.16%)
[A Good thing]

In Employment: rose from 1,861.3 Q2 2011 to 1,899.3 Q3 2013 (a rise of +38,000 or +2.04%)
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 1a
-of which full-time: rose from 1,423.8 Q2 2011 to 1,448.6 Q3 2013 (a rise of +24,800 or +1.74%)
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 1a
-of which part-time, not underemployed: rose from 300.4 Q2 2011 to 311.4 Q3 2013 (a rise of +11,000 or +3.66%)
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 1a
-of which part-time, underemployed: rose from 137.1 Q2 2011 to 139.3 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,200 or +1.60%)
[A Bad thing] Figures per Table 1a
-of which Male, Employed: rose from 992.8 in Q2 2011 to 1,028.3 (a rise of +35,500 or +3.58%)
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 7a
-of which Female, Employed: rose from 868.8 in Q2 2011 to 871.0 (a rise of +2,200 or +0.25%)
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 7a

Unemployed: fell from 317.4 Q2 2011 to 282.9 Q3 2013 (a drop of -34,500 or -10.87%)
[A Good thing]
-of which seeking full-time work/future job-starter: fell from 277.4 Q2 2011 to 242.9 Q3 2013 (a drop of -34,500 or -12.44%)
[A Bad thing as less seeking full-time work]
-of which seeking part-time work: rose from 26.5 Q2 2011 to 30.8 Q3 2013 (a rise of +4,300 or +16.23%)
[Arguably a Bad thing as not seeking full-time work] Figures per Table 1a
-of which seeking work as self-employed: fell from 13.5 Q2 2011 to 9.2 Q3 2013 (a drop of -4,300 or -31.85%)
[A Bad thing as small and medium sized enterprises help economies] Figures per Table 1a

Unemployment rate %: fell from 14.6 Q2 2011 to 13.0 Q3 2013
[A Good thing] Figures per Table 1a

Edit: insert a few more comparisons

I have to say these results for Q3 2013 are very encouraging for the most part

In Q2 2013 were were also given a report on Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment using data from the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS).

We were told by the CSO

No sign of it today. Shame Perhaps due out next week. If so, I will do further analysis then.

Table 7a in the QNHS Q3 2013 gives us a lot of data about Persons aged 15 years and over classified by ILO economic status, sex, age group and quarter
cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespu … q32013.pdf

Males
15-19, Employed: rose from 12.4 Q2 2011 to 16.9 Q3 2013 (a rise of +4,500 or +36.29%. A Good thing)
15-19, Unemployed: fell from 10.7 Q2 2011 to 9.9 Q3 2013 (a fall of -800 or – 7.48%. A Good thing)
15-19, in Labour Force: rose from 23.1 Q2 2011 to 26.8 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,700 or +16.02%. A Good thing)

20-24, Employed: flat, from 67.6 Q2 2011 to 67.6 Q3 2013 (NIL)
20-24, Unemployed: fell from 33.9 Q2 2011 to 25.9 Q3 2013 (a fall of -8,000 or -23.60%. A Good thing)
20-24, in Labour Force: fell from 101.4 Q2 2011 to 93.5 Q3 2013 (a fall of -7,900 or -7.79%. A Bad thing)

25-34, Employed: fell from 258.9 Q2 2011 to 251.8 Q3 2013 (a fall of -7,100 or -2.74%. A Bad thing)
25-34, Unemployed: fell from 70.4 Q2 2011 to 49.3 Q3 2013 (a fall of -21,100 or -29.97%. A Good thing)
25-34, in Labour Force: fell from 329.3 Q2 2011 to 301.1 Q3 2013 (a fall of -28,200 or -8.56%. A Bad thing)

35-44, Employed: rose from 271.6 Q2 2011 to 279.5 Q3 2013 (a rise of +7,900 or +2.91%. A Good thing)
35-44, Unemployed: fell from 47.5 Q2 2011 to 42.9 Q3 2013 (a fall of -4,600 or -9.68%. A Good thing)
35-44, in Labour Force: rose from 319.2 Q2 2011 to 322.4 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,200 or +1.00%. A Good thing)

45-54, Employed: rose from 215.7 Q2 2011 to 232.0 Q3 2013 (a rise of +16,300 or +7.56%. A Good thing)
45-54, Unemployed: rose from 33.8 Q2 2011 to 30.0 Q3 2013 (a fall of -3,800 or -11.24%. A Good thing)
45-54, in Labour Force: rose from 249.4 Q2 2011 to 262.1 Q3 2013 (a rise of +11,700 or +4.69%. A Good thing)

55-59, Employed: rose from 79.6 Q2 2011 to 84.1 Q3 2013 (a rise of +4,500 or +5.65%. A Good thing)
55-59, Unemployed: rose from 10.7 Q2 2011 to 12.6 Q3 2013 (a rise of +1,900 or +17.76%. A Bad thing)
55-59, in Labour Force: rose from 90.2 Q2 2011 to 96.7 Q3 2013 (a rise of +6,500 or +7.21%. A Good thing)

60-64, Employed: rose from 54.0 Q2 2011 to 57.0 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,000 or +5.56%. A Good thing)
60-64, Unemployed: rose from 6.8 Q2 2011 to 7.5 Q3 2013 (a rise of +700 or +10.29%. A Bad thing)
60-64, in Labour Force: rose from 60.8 Q2 2011 to 64.5 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,700 or +6.09%. A Good thing)

65+, Employed: rose from 33.0 Q2 2011 to 39.4 Q3 2013 (a rise of +6,400 or +19.39%. A Good thing)
65+, Unemployed: rose from 0.4 Q2 2011 to 0.8 Q3 2013 (a rise of +400 or +100.0%. A Bad thing)
65+, in Labour Force: rose from 33.4 Q2 2011 to 40.2 Q3 2013 (a rise of +6,800 or +20.36%. A Good thing)

Females
15-19, Employed: rose from 14.5 Q2 2011 to 18.2 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,700 or +25.52%. A Good thing)
15-19, Unemployed: flat, from 7.4 Q2 2011 to 7.4 Q3 2013 (NIL)
15-19, in Labour Force: rose from 21.9 Q2 2011 to 25.6 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,600 or +16.44%. A Good thing)

20-24, Employed: fell from 76.2 Q2 2011 to 64.4 Q3 2013 (a fall of -11,800 or -15.49%. A Bad thing)
20-24, Unemployed: fell from 20.7 Q2 2011 to 17.1 Q3 2013 (a fall of -3,600 or -17.39%. A Good thing)
20-24, in Labour Force: fell from 96.9 Q2 2011 to 81.5 Q3 2013 (a fall of -15,400 or -15.89%. A Bad thing)

25-34, Employed: fell from 267.9 Q2 2011 to 249.5 Q3 2013 (a fall of -18,400 or -6.87%. A Bad thing)
25-34, Unemployed: fell from 33.3 Q2 2011 to 29.9 Q3 2013 (a fall of -3,400 or -10.21%. A Good thing)
25-34, in Labour Force: fell from 301.3 Q2 2011 to 279.3 Q3 2013 (a fall of -22,000 or -7.30%. A Bad thing)

35-44, Employed: rose from 213.7 Q2 2011 to 233.9 Q3 2013 (a rise of +20,200 or +9.45%. A Good thing)
35-44, Unemployed: rose from 21.7 Q2 2011 to 22.8 Q3 2013 (a rise of +1,100 or +5.07%. A Bad thing)
35-44, in Labour Force: rose from 235.3 Q2 2011 to 256.6 Q3 2013 (a rise of +21,300 or +9.05%. A Good thing)

45-54, Employed: rose from 182.8 Q2 2011 to 185.7 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,900 or +1.59%. A Good thing)
45-54, Unemployed: rose from 14.1 Q2 2011 to 17.7 Q3 2013 (a rise of +3,600 or +25.53%. A Bad thing)
45-54, in Labour Force: rose from 196.9 Q2 2011 to 203.4 Q3 2013 (a rise of +6,400 or +3.25%. A Good thing)

55-59, Employed: rose from 64.9 Q2 2011 to 67.8 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,900 or +4.47%. A Good thing)
55-59, Unemployed: rose from 3.9 Q2 2011 to 6.1 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,200 or +56.41%. A Bad thing)
55-59, in Labour Force: rose from 68.8 Q2 2011 to 73.9 Q3 2013 (a rise of +5,100 or +7.41%. A Good thing)

60-64, Employed: rose from 35.3 Q2 2011 to 35.6 Q3 2013 (a rise of +300 or +0.85%. A Good thing)
60-64, Unemployed: rose from 2.0 Q2 2011 to 2.5 Q3 2013 (a rise of +500 or +25.00%. A Bad thing)
60-64, in Labour Force: rose from 37.3 Q2 2011 to 38.1 Q3 2013 (a rise of +800 or +2.14%. A Good thing)

65+, Employed: rose from 13.3 Q2 2011 to 15.9 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,600 or +19.55%. A Good thing)
65+, Unemployed: rose from 0.1 Q2 2011 to 0.3 Q3 2013 (a rise of +200 or +200%. A Bad thing)
65+, in Labour Force: rose from 13.4 Q2 2011 to 16.2 Q3 2013 (a rise of +2,800 or +20.90%. A Good thing)

@TheJackal, Great work! Fascinating.