This is very old news to some of us who predicted this number ( or not over 40,000) at least a year back for 2008.
My current prediction for 2009 and 2010 is 14k per annum . 2008 is merely a waystation . In 2011 it will pick up … a bit .
Desperate Dan said (shortly before christmas) that it would be 56k or so this year, has Dan been asked about the 20k difference yet , if not why not ??
And even though Kens lot are at last being reasonable about the new build forecast Kens lot have not yet addressed the 330k-350k empties lying about the place already built.
If you have 35k new builds and 350k empties then its fair to say these empties are WAY more significant in the big scheme of things .
Isn’t that so Ken
14K?? , that’s 1970/71 output levels
18K was the output from 1987.
At output of 14K, to quote Jim Cramer ‘we have Armageddon’
Having said that when I plotted it on a graph based on my own guesstimates , the most optimistic projection I could work out was under 22K per annum for the period before any pickup in 2012/2013, I had penciled in 2011 as being the low point for output.
IF, and it is a very big IF, output fell to 14k in 09 it would mean 150k less working in residential construction than 06. Imagine the impact on the economy! Although it does not need to go down that far to have a major impact. In reality I would think that say 10k social and 8k one-off units would put at least an 18k+ floor on completions.
I’ve heard anecdotally from architects that developers have started to use the following rule of thumb: if they think they can sell about 40% of a new development off plans then they’ll go ahead and develop, otherwise they’ll sit on planning permission (which is valid for 5 years).
I find that figure quite high (I thought buying off plans went out of fashion about a year ago).
Almost all new projects in one big architects practice since Oct 07 are for commercial.
Well the flat the pack Lego add water wait 20 minutes housing thats been all the rage with developers over the last 20 years in Ireland I’d say is generally low in terms of architectural input.
Surburban sprawl has been regard as a failed system for decades now. The news has yet to reach Ireland.
I think I am on a faster curve , thats the only difference between us . My projection for output between 2008 and 2012 ( inclusive ) is
2008 38k Units
2009 14k Units
2010 14k Units
2011 23k Units
2012 35k Units
Total 124k units , what was your total guesstimate for that time period ??
2008 - 42K Units
2009 - 30K
2010 - 22K
2011 - 20K
2012 - 22K
136K units total.
I also don’t see output getting above 30,000 or there abouts until 2015.
Well the difference between us is 6k off a median forecast of 130k which is very respectably under 5% margin of error.
I refuse to fall out with Green Bear over what is a slightly over 4% forecasting margin …its about who buys the other pints at Christmas 2009 and not in Grogans either that … so its over to Ken Dan and Austin for a rebuttal
Game on . You must be expecting 50%+ falls then in order to soak up the a lot of the excess inventory. I think unofficially Austin might be agreeing with you…
Just out of curiosity what do you guy’s base this on?
I have no idea what will happen, and I know that the VI’s have pulled figures out of their arse’s based on demographic’s
Anyway I am just curious.
A guesstimate based on a combination of historic data, Leaving cert numbers, desire to live near main urban areas, pent up demand + developers continuing because they have to. Which is a fancy way of saying pulling the figures out of my arse.
Historic data is here if you want to plot mine and 2packs projections in historical context.
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … tatistics/
Irish Migration in the 1990s- an Overview in Charts
migration.ucc.ie/irishmigrationi … charts.htm
**US population 300,000,000 **
New housing start rate one new unit for every 136 persons at the end 2006. One new unit for every 250 people end 2007 approx.
**Ireland population 4,100,000 **
At the same peak housing start rate as in the US(one unit per 136 people) we would be building approx 30,000 new homes pa.
At the current 250 rate per housing unit, it would equate to 16,000 Irish starts. Our peak rate was 1 new unit per 45 people, if the US had built at the same rate they would have to have built approx. 6,666,666 new housing units per annum.
UK population 60,000,000
Housing start rate in the UK one new unit for every 300 people. If we built at the same rate as the British we would build approx. 13,666 units pa.
Cool. YOU can see the UK post war boom & then their massive 60’s BOOM highlighted in that very chart, after that it don’t look so good does it?
I guess its pointless building housing if you don’t need it. 30,000 units pa in Ireland would be a result for the construction industry.
And I have told him that my arse is more rounded than his and is a more inherently valuable as a forecasting tool than Dan and Austin are .
My gut instinct is that the bustup is occuring faster than GB reckons it is .
My trough occurs sooner and my recovery sooner and his trough and recovery occurs later, yet we are pretty close to each other over a 5 year period .
There is a mutually binding contract to deliver pints at christmas 2009, thats for sure, nearest slurps and furthest pays dearly for being wrong
Rossa White vs 2pack vs Green Bear
2Pack GB Rossa 2008 38k 42K 45K 2009 14k 30K 25k 2010 14k 22K ? 2011 23k 20K ? 2012 35k 22K ?
DoE publish the stats here (so far 18,858 completed in the first 4 months 2008)
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … tatistics/
25k next year is going to murder the industry
that’s a long way from the 59K houses we NEED to be built EVERY year if this guy is to be believed boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=55755901&postcount=4685
Geckko reckons yer man has his figures wrong, who knows!
Will someone think of the children
would that mean starts would have to fall to just over 1k a month very soon? is this likely?