Labour Party the most popular in the state

Given that the Labour party consistently opposed the planning corruption accross the state and has opposed the blanket guarantee this is good news for integrity in Irish politics. Only one labour councillor was implicated in planning corruption and he was expelled years before it came out .

Irrespective of your gut feelings on socialism irish labours is a centre left party with pragmatic social democratic and liberal instincts. The last time that the irish government ran a balanced budget Ruairi quinn was the minister for Finance. Granbted during the crazy years they were as liable as others to advocate an increase public spending.

given that fine gael areinfested with neocon right wing buffoons the likes of Leo Varadkar and Fianna fail are so corrupt they actually honestly believe it’s not corruption hopefully this is a sign that irish voters will break the civil wasr clientelist monopoly of the local gombeen man.

Mother of sweet Jesus, pray for us all. Labour are just as responsible for the mess we are in today as any political party. Read their manifesto:

Surely there must be some mistake…

I don’t know how it could be possible especially if they don’t run a candidate in every constituency :confused:

TBH I’d take Gilmore over Kenny or Cowen. Somehow I don’t see it panning out that way in the elections though.

Volume of votes sure… But it doesn’t translate into seats down the country…

Dublin will be dark red but the rest of the country will be an awful turquoise…


In 1.

I’d suspect most of the Don’t Knows to be FF supporters who will inevitably toe the line come election day - but maybe for the “new” FF candidate (son or daughter of previous TD).

Labour are looking to run at least one candidate in every constiuency in the country and at least two in any constituency where there is a sitting TD.

Labour do consistently well out of transfers.

I dunno. The implosion of the Conservatives, mired in sleaze and incompetence, in 1997 in the UK may be instructive. It was not so much that their vote switched to Labour, more that it stayed at home. It couldn’t bring itself to vote for anyone else, but it wasn’t about to vote the failures back in.

Could the same happen here under a PR system? It’s hard to tell. We might see a few odd “Christian Socialist Freemarket Workers Movement against Abortion, Galilean Evolution and the Wheel” make close calls. The equivalent of a protest vote for a sock puppet.

I do believe thats incorrect. There were budget surpluses up until 2007.

I think it;'s a combination.
Joan Burton, Gilmore and to be fair the senior members of the party’s refusal to blindly follow the consensus and row in behind the blanket guarantee has stood them well in the eyes of those of us who felt it was the banking industry railroading the government into a personal bailout. Fine gaels meek towing of the fianna fail line has exposed them as just as rudderless as fianna fail. Fine gael would have nodded just as meekly at Sean dunne and his banker buddies while idiots like leo the blueshirt varudkar ranted on about octogenarian former leaders of his own party…

The point is many people are actually considering a vote for labour.
It’s up to labour to get the candidates out there.

The real challenge for labour is the countrywide weakness of it’s branch network.

Local aparty activists are essential and labour just doesn’t have enough, although they are swelling.

The big problem for Labour is not this election but the following one.

Why are the MRBI polls so completely out of line with the Red C monthly polls? Which one do you believe more?

My guess is that this is a rogue poll in that it overestimates Labour’s support.

Really though, FG have to take a hard look a themselves. Consistently, 70% and more of the population in the midst of this shite are saying that they will not be voting for the largest opposition party in the state. They are a shambles and maybe close to being redundant as a political movement unless they coalesce with their ideological bedfellows FF or the later is eviscerated at the next election.

It doesn’t make sense at all. Fg got 51 seats in the last election on 28% of the vote. If Labour are really on 32% this would mean going from their current 20ish to well over 50. Does not compute. Labour did really badly in the last one despite polling well in the run up. They just didn’t run enough candidates or enough credible candidates. I don’t get the appeal of Gilmore, what does he stand for? Official IRA/Workers Party/Democratic Left(overs)/Labour/?

And on housing : … aR0AUgbvMA

Mandate, eh?

They don’t mention the % which were apoplectic.

Methinks Labour are the main beneficiaries of an FF leaning vote. Everytime FF go down below 20% Labour tend to be the key beneficiaries.

But the poll is a big worry for FG. They should find out the reason for coming 2nd. It ain’t just Kenny, the front bench has had a bad few weeks recently too. My feeling is a lot of people ‘would vote FG but’ and tend to find reasons like party leader (Kenny, Noonan, Bruton), Some recent policy document (Eircom shareholders), or a decision made when last in govt (One loon even mentioned ‘the treaty’, eighty years on!). I think what’s really going on is the ‘NAMA for the people’ and public sector brigade have really swung behind Labour, in the hope that they won’t suffer from cutbacks in the way they could if FG got in. Gilmore’s fence sitting ought to have cost him dearly, especially with regard to the Croke park deal, but in the run up to an election, FG should let FF target Labour as not having any policies, (well they do, just not detailed ones!), and reap the benefits of the drop in Labours support.

I think election day will be different. I expect Labour to do well in Dublin, but to only do OK outside major cities. FG organisation is superior to Labours, and they should still become the largest party. But FG still need to up their game. They launched what seemed to be a very well thought out strategy on Health service reform recently, but it didn’t have a very strong national profile as far as I could see. They are still too polite with FF (I hope this is keeping the powder dry for the election). As regards Enda Kenny, I think he should make way for Bruton soon, but remain on the front bench, since he does seem to be well able to manage FG. His media appearances and understanding of economic policy are big liabilities though.

This is an interesting development, and puts huge pressure on Enda Kenny and Cowen, Cowen will stay on, but FG must be asking “WHF is going on here, we have the most unpopular Government in history and we are going backwards”.

The answer is Enda, I was talking to a group of 6 people one night and everyone one of us want a change in Government but we all equally said not at the expense of having Enda a Taoiseach.

Labour on the other hand must be delighted, how are they going to consolidate this lead is a question that will need answering, I can’t see them winning every constituency contested, but Dublin will provide alot of new seats, with the other urban centres returning new labour TD’s also. A constituency like mine Kildare North, could return 2, with Stagg and Mc Namara, they already have a good vote, returning Mc Namara (Naas LEA) and Mc Ginley(Celbrige LEA) in the locals.

I wonder what type of Ireland we would we have today had Labour not stepped aside in 1918 and 1922 “for the goodness of the country”, they were extremely popular, and those descisions sent them to 3rd place and never recovered.

Perhaps this is the seachange that we need, leave the Civil War where it is, and look to the future with different princples.

Depends on whether Labour are idiot enough to consider Sinn Fein as a possible coalition partner, something which was suggested on some news twitter yesterday, can’t remember.

I’m reading the situation differently.
I see Kenny as a sort of Ian Duncan-Smith character.
Hes shite, everyone knows hes shite but he isnt going anywhere.

The ‘smart’ thing for FG to do (and I suspect this is whats happening) is to continue as they are and let FF continue to implode.
Having a decent leader (Bruton?) would put them in the frame for government and no one in their right mind wants to be in govt for the next few years.

Indeed if a snap election were called FG could (should?) call Labours bluff by Forcing them into coalition with FF and allowing them to destroy themselves over the next Dail term.

Cowen will stay on too - he has the Green support and will retain is as they are off to oblivion at the next election.
Someone else pointed out that the Greens need to stay in power until this month (June 2010) to be eligible for ministerial pensions…was it?

The Labour surge is overdone and, as someone already pointed out, its likely mainly from PS workers worried about cuts and lost-in-space FF’ers.

I suspect there are a number of factors at play here.

  1. FF are collapsing under the weight of their own ineptitude, greed and self importance. Their twin mantras of “me féin” and “party before country” have meant that their focus has never been on what’s best for the great masses of the unwashed voters, or for that matter the nation. “In the national interest” is evoked as a rallying call by the party in the absence any real ideas or leadership ability.

1a) By extension, FF are taking down anyone that associates with them.

  1. Despite the spectacle of FF dropping the ball, being caught out and then attempting to spin their way out of accepting responsibility, constantly protesting their innocence and/or their bad luck while insisting “that we’ve never had it so good” and telling us to stop moaning or at least go kill ourselves, FG as the main opposition have proven themselves to be even more inept by being unable to land any meaningful blows on the slow, wallowing target that is the government parties.

  2. Eamon Gilmore’s performances in the Dáil have appeared to be rather good (now, a caveat here, it may all be relative to the performances of the other party leaders!).

  3. A growing sense of relative impoverishment amongst the electorate, ranging for those who are genuinely worse off; such as the growing number of unemployed, to those who just think they are; such as those still working but experiencing negative equity, coupled with a sense of anger and desire to punish or at lest hold accountable those responsible for the state we are now in, would seem to favour a left wing party. (Socialists have alwasy been good at whipping up support against “elites” when things get tight, think France 1789, or Russia 1917).

  4. And maybe, just maybe, as we all endure the horror that is the hangover left by the orgy that was the bubble years, the population of the country is looking for another way, and the worn out old double act of FF and FG (could it be that together they are now the Jedward of Irish politics) just don’t appeal any more.

Blue Horseshoe