Last Word on Daft Rental report


#1

Don’t know if you heard the Last Word (yesterday - 20th Aug) on the Daft Rental report.
Matt had a representative from HOK on, who, predictably, espoused the view that investing in property for the long term was a good thing.
When Matt pointed to the 300,000 overhang highlighted by the CSO report, the HOK rep twittered on about people beginning to doubt the CSO as ‘opinion based’.
The whole piece was very biased, with Matt effectively allowing the VI to get away with murder.

Anyway, I’m composing an email for the Last Word today, and just need one more thing for it … can anyone provide a link that details the ESB figures confirming the number of empty properties in the country?

Thanks.


#2

LOL,in my opinion Ireland has a population of 9.5 million people and they’re all desperate to buy houses :wink: :laughing: .


#3

A house is 'complete’when connected to the grid

methodology described here for new houses

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 941,en.pdf

this does not mean there is anyone in the house…only a meter,

NOW see The ESB figures here. They only go to 2005 .

esb.ie/esbnetworks/downloads … istics.pdf

page 2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Urban Domestic 857,336 883,947 913,936 950,813 993,811 1,047,206
Rural Domestic 603,270 626,148 650,065 678,533 710,761 727,809

so thats 1.775m meters installed at the end of 2005

the census found 1.8m homes at the end of April 2006 and the esb connected almost 22k homes in the first 3 months of 2006.

thats here

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 315,en.pdf

page 7 , 21,894 completions

THEREFORE both the esb total end 2005+ completions jan - mar 2006 = 1.8m

census went door to door and found 1.8m homes in April.

**These Figures are Totally Consistent From 2 sources, we know there were 1.8 homes and 1.8m meters in April 2006 **

also note

esb.ie/main/news_events/press_release325.jsp

and

esb.ie/main/news_events/press_office.jsp

the esb has not, to my knowledge, given information on the number of houses with a meter and no or low usage …indicating that they are empty.

Matt should either bring them on or ELSE you can ask them yourself

  1. total number of domestic connections today ( I expect about 1.85 to 1.87m)
  2. total number with average bills under €10 a month after standing charge .

Figure 2 is the empties. The ESB can give that figure.

My estimation is 330k to 350k today .EMPTY!


#4

RED HOT!


#5

Nice work 2Pack.
I’m pretty sure I heard about official figures from the ESB indicating ~300,000 empties, so I’m hoping that data is publically available somehwere.
I have another potential source looking for it, but if it’s not found I’ll email the ESB direct.


#6

I would imagine that many ruined houses that people would argue were counted as empties are NOT on the grid


#7

I’ve mailied 2 Packs post to the Cooper Show with the post. Mr Tucker obvioiusly got up your nose. I don’t blame you. I listned to him again and it sounds even more flip floppy to be honest… “ah its holiday homes MATT you know holiday homes…” (paraphrased)

When in doubt leave it out!


#8

JEEZ BlindJ!

The fact that the number of meters and the census figures BOTH arrived at a netch from 1.8m MEANS that ruins were not counted as houses by the CSO when they did the census.

There would be * some *discrepancies like 1 house with 2 meters ( I personally have a granny flat for my mother) and a finished house run off another house next door (ergo with no meter of its own) like my neighbours son but with lights on and occupied in many cases .

These cancel each other out nationally to a considerable degree, how about pre 63 houses divided into bedsits with 6 bedsits and only 4 doorbells too.

CSO found 1.8m houses
ESB then had 1.8m domestic meters

There is no room for CSO “OPINION” as the VI put it . The correlation is FAR TOO STRONG !

ESB now has 1.8m+ domestic meters , nearer 1.9m than 1.8m …the census was conducted 16 months back and many more houses were connected since …and some houses fell into disuse of course.

Its safe to assume the total housing stock increased by over 50k in that 16 months so I STAND by my current figure of 1.85-1.87m habitable housing units .

I also STAND over my assertion that 330k - 350k are empty or used occasionally .

This would translate into all houses with an ESB usage bill ( not standing charges) in the €10 a month range … €120 a year in other words .

Well used holiday homes would be over €120 a year in electricity charges , about 700 units in a year .


#9

MR G Tucker made the point that 400,000 journeys where made to holiday homnes & second homes.

Where did he get tha figure? Couldn’t be the CSO since they are all wrong and the lads over there couldn’t count for shit according to him.

No reference a simple off the top of his head figure. I’m sure the garda are not stopping people on the weekends conducting surverys as to the holiday patterns of the masses.

Even if we take the rather dubious path of accepting this figure, 400000/50000 thats 8 visits a year to your 2nd home or holiday home. Ok fine I have no problem with that for the moment that doens’t seem unreasonable, plenty of weekends to choose from etc. etc.

But Mr Tucker So what? Doesn’t remove the other 250/300K empties dotted around this land with no one in them, whats your point?


#10

the CSO is biased?

That’s the official hard fact database complied by the govt.


#11

100% agree 2pack


#12

Old Dan tucker is the worst type of media scouring ‘economist’. I once sent in a text to Newstalk in the morning - early doors in this whole affair- and he was on to counteract it straight away. Comical Aussi et al are Keynes and Galbraith in comparison.

The thing with the esb connections is that there is always a huge time lag there. (on account of their notorious inefficiciency) This anecdotally is contributing to the housing output figures being so high in 2007, when the world and his wife knows that residential housing sites are dead as a doornail.

Thus these 70-80k stats for '07 when your eyes and ears tell you so much less than that.


#13

Didn’t you know that any statistic that doesn’t agree with VI’s is biased.


#14

My favourite part of the whole interview was when Tucker said …

“IF you take advantage of mortgage interest relief AND the rent a room scheme. Then buying is cheaper than renting.”

:question:

So if you forget about comparing like with like it’s cheaper to buy. :unamused:

I’d certainly hope that if I owned a place (which I lived in) and rented out a room or two I’d be financially better off than if I rented a similar place on my own!


#15

Any response from the ‘lost’ word anyone ???


#16

NO but I hope they are listeing. You might get it in the coverage the next time they cover the issue.

We could send a email and ask them to give us a heads up on what they intend coveing and we ocudl throw together some killer info to help them nail it. Actually I’ll do that now.