Millward Brown FF 29% (+6%) FG 25% (+1%) SF 20% (-1%) Indie 17% (-4%) Lab 9% (-2%) after excluding 32% undecideds.
@namawinelake on twitter
the silent masses are being driven into the arms of FF by FG/Lab. Just like 1985/6 again
‘silent masses’ is 1 term for them…I’d have a few more but I don’t want to get banned
Next there be calls to bring bag that north slider in a tracksuit
From Twitter
John McGuirk @john_mcguirk
I, for one, welcome our old overloads.
Political pornography writ large; a nation of ‘bitches-who-love-it-in-da-ass.com’
Now I know why the oldies sang ‘God Save Ireland’…
Oh, its a sindo poll. Phew, for a minute there I thought it might be credible. I don’t doubt that voters are returning to ff, but 29%? Nah.
17.4% never left them. 12% more returning isn’t so incredible. FF is a well oiled machine, and with a lot of old faces jettisoned and a new bunch of favours stacked it up they will return in some form. Never again to near majority, perhaps, but to traditional FG numbers definitely.
I reckon the 12% is made up of public sector workers, incensed at every party but returning to FF after their 2011 labour swing proved useless. I know plenty of ex-FF voters that would never vote FG no matter what, whom I believe to have voted labour last time out.
It’s all about the Independent TDs. There has been a concerted campaign to undermine the Independents, (made easy by Ming the Pointless), and their supporters have fled. These voters favour FF over FG/Lab. Independents down 4 points, FF up 6. But It’s only temporary. As soon as the penalty points debacle is forgotten the Independents will be back up to 20+.
Labour is probably the real story. They’re f~cked.
Off-topic; but isn’t this the John McGuirk who was thrown out of two of the main political parties, and had a judgement registered against him in relation to either purchasing of an apartment or the fit-out of same ? He also fell out with C Simmons apparently over who could tweet in her name and the style/content of same when she ran for Libertas. I think he ran in one of the Border Counties at the last election and, thankfully IMHO, wasn’t elected. Quite what VB sees in him, I don’t know but I for one wouldn’t rate him as a political pundit, or indeed use him to prove a point or quote a statistic.
The FF youth wing is huge and very well organised, YFG on the hand seem to be pretty lacklustre and have feck all national organisation.
Labour Youth…they try, but they don’t seem to have any interaction with the main party and seem to spend all their time releasing manifestos and pamphlets that decry everything the coalition is doing.
Wished I had left this Godforsaken rock years ago but now here I am stuck on it,bringing up my kids on it and will likely die on it surrounded by people who are genuinely too fucking stupid to be allowed a vote but who decide again and again that getting buggered by a dildo wrapped in barbed wire is loike rilly riilly not dat bad when loike you consider de alternitives
I get this feeling every now and again and its like deja vu and I will wake up in my bed in an alternate universe and it will all have been a frightful nightmare.
WAKE UP.
A decade ago, 2 million marched against the war on Iraq in London alone and nothing changed.
Do you think a few rants on the internets are going to change anything?
I don’t mean this in a cynical way - I feel the same as you but do fuck all about it.
You misunderstand the FF voter greatly. I see this notion again and again - that voters are idiots, that FF voters are masochists blinded by what their parents voted for. There’s an element of this, but it’s not the driving force of the FF machine.
People are ‘introduced’ to FF by their parents. Fianna Fáil is a business network, a social network, and more importantly a favour network. Think of this favour network as pyramid selling, FF is a big Amway, only what’s selling is favours, and the currency is votes and fundraising. There are two sides to the FF pyramid, the quiet business backers and the public TDs. The national executive is the representation of the business and (some) policy interests.
Favours come from the top down. You can gain access to favours by becoming a member, canvassing and leaflet dropping, getting officership in your cumann. Anything to put you on the radar of TDs/Councillors and those with ambition to become one. They will court your favour, for your vote at convention. This is the internal FF pyramid. The stronger your political acumen, and the more you work within the organization, the higher you move within the internal pyramid. This gives you access to TDs as well as councillors. You do, however, have to pick a camp, or a primary camp and secondary camp. There are divisions within any constituency which must be played - these are the result of bitter conventions during ebbs in the party’s success.
Once in the internal pyramid you have the power to court and award favours to those outside the pyramid, common ground voters who will come to you when in need. These are:
- People who are tired of a waiting list for housing
- People who are tired of a waiting list for an operation
- People who don’t want to pay a public hospital bill
- People who need public nursing home accommodation for a parent now, and can’t afford private in the interim
- People who need an application for their kid’s student grant fudged (e.g. P60 ignored, not asked for)
- etc etc
They come to you, you talk to the TD/councillor, they are put in touch, someone gets helped (but this depends on your own standing within the party). When the election comes around, everyone remembers you, the TD and the favour, and half the helped person’s family/friend network vote for the TD. One favour equals several votes. Every year you call up the favoured to sell them tickets for the national draw. The helpers bringing the uninitiated into the network are rewarded with turkey and ham dinners, some booze, and a good time all around.
Word gets around localities that FF do good things for the area. It doesn’t matter if the place is social deprivation central, word gets around between the unthinking that the local FF guy does good things for people. For those not currying favour through the party, they are met with smiles at the TD clinics, and promises for the future which they believe because they know Mary down the road got her favour (Mary is connected to a cumann officer, this person might never get their favour - there’s only so much to go around).
On the business / fund raising side of things, I’m sure it gets greasier but I don’t know the ins and outs. Presumably contracts are awarded, or the desired business environment is created, and powerful men help fundraise for the party in return.
All politics is local? FF bring politics into your living room, around your kitchen table.
The old favoured are out there, many of them moved when things went to shit, but will now think ‘what have FG ever done for me?’. They’re not connected to FG/Lab in any way, so they will judge them on political results. The old FF political results will be forgotten, as they remember the good days of the favour, and return to the exciting but abusive former lover. When that retired TD shows up on the doorstep with his son/daughter/niece/nephew next time out, they’ll talk about rebuilding Ireland, but with a nod and wink.
With public services rolled back, the favour machine is going to be working in overdrive, and the hungry masses will want a piece of that action.
The machine is incredible, I’ve seen it working, I used to be a member.
EDIT: When I think about it, this is why the boom money was squandered. They suddenly had the cash to openly spread the favours around to the electorate, to buy their income of fundraising and votes. Now they’ll be returning to the old ways, and building up their pyramid again.
If they are unhappy with FF, FG and Labour and they don`t want to vote for a party associated with terrorism and political violence
Then who DO they vote for?
The complete lack of choice is shocking. The Don`t knows as a % are as big as the largest party. That says alot.
Spoiled vote party
I doubt even a huge % of spoiled votes would change things. Do you?
But I couldn`t vote for any of the main parties now. If there good independents were more widespread or new parties arose they would all gain traction.
Give us emigrants a vote. We sure as hell won`t vote FF
@jammyb
great to see the culture that is Irish politics articulated in such a way.
Gratitude to you sir.
Won’t change anything but saves me having to vote for the usual monkeys. Sometimes I do vote independent.