Leading indicator 40% Aer Lingus long haul unsold ??

Having twice last year being at the mercy of the will they/won’t they be flying tomorrow crap due to internal struggles between management and unions, i’d be loathe to use Aer lingus again for a long time.
The treatment of passangers in the whole thing was a complete disgrace and a step by step manual on how not to treat your customers !.

This is a really bad sign, not just for the airline, but for the economy. Travel is one of the first discretionary expenses to be cut in the lead up to the recession. There has been much talk of high oil prices hurting airline share prices, but in reality the cautious money is exiting the sector most likely to be trashed by a recession. Expect to see bankruptcies and mergers in the US and more consolidation in Europe. At least one low large low cost carrier in Europe will go bust - many more smaller ones without niche (protected) markets will go.

I would have thought the weak dollar would have stimulated demand for long-haul to the US.
However from a wider economic point of view the figure is perhaps not as dramatic as it seems… AL have just shot up supply without any corresponding demand.

Looks like Michael O’Leary was calling a spade a spade

Ryanair and Aer Lingus are both cannabalising their own markets at the minute, Irish people or people resident within the state can’t keep travelling at the rates or making exponential numbers of trips year on year.

Weak dollar is not helping either but whilst load factors are down, overall pax numbers are up.

marketwatch URL

Not that anyone trusts the rating agencies - they might also have pointed out that a recession in the US will destroy passenger yield at a time when record fuel costs are biting.

Hedging fuel into a recession is really dodgy, as if the price falls, you could end up paying way over the odds for fuel or having to take a charge to buy yourself out of the hedge. On the other hand, if prices stay high and this is the seventies again! (There’s a reason that all of europe’s flag-carrying airlines were nationalised at the end of the seventies!).

Having to travel abroad for both personal and business reasons on a number of occassions in the laet 12 months and been left wondering because of the same shower I have to say airbourne fungus have gone down steeply in my respect. Also in flying to Spain i.e. places like Barcelona Clickair (the Spanish cheapo airline) proved to be much better value.

another spectacular failure for the privatisation agenda.

Has there been even one single successful privatisation?

How many more have to fail before the neo liberals admit that they’re wrong?

I would say it’s a spectacular success, the taxpayer would have to prop up Aer Lingus now.

Don’t hold your breath. They’re still trying to claim their great neo-liberal experiment in Chile was a resounding success.

Aye, thousands dead, military dictatorship, and 14 years later real wages were down by 40% and everything had to be re-nationalised. But the neo-liberal WingNuts still insist it was a wonderful success for “Freedom”.

I’ve come to the conclusion these people are actually clinically insane, psychopathic even, and should be treated accordingly.

We’re an island nation. We need air transport links to connect us to the outside world. It would be a lot cheaper to support Aer Lingus through a down turn than to have to build a new carrier from scratch in a decade.

(remember what happened with Eircom? they’ve had to set up a new state telecoms company to provide the essential broadand nfrastructure that the private sector refused to pay for.)

I concur with your analysis.

There are heaps, just not here.

Ironically, British Airways was a basket case under public ownership.

Seemingly the Belfast routes are taking a bit of a hiding as well. Oh dear. Does the no glee policy apply to airlines? :wink:

Shouldn’t be too difficult to name them, so.

I have been tracking the Belfast numbers since they started. Loads are brutal, as low as 25% (Amsterdam) and at as low as a pound a pop. The much vaunted Heathrow anchor route is also going poorly. None of the other operators have cut capacity so fares are taking big hit and AL are the most exposed being at the airport furthest from the City centre for business customers. On the North Atlantic I’d imagine US originating traffic is being crucified with the dollar and recession US based discretionary travel is being hammered. These are classic airline mistakes of buying shiney new planes in a boom rather than leasing so that you can hand them back and pare back operations in a cyclical downturn. Well, as the saying goes the quickest way to become a millionare is to start off as a billionare and buy an airline!

The Amsterdam route has been chopped to one flight a day afaik. If I were a shareholder I’d be asking some pretty serious questions of management as to why they left a profitable route (Shannon) for a loss leader in Belfast.

PS

Mind you, I flew back from Shannon to Stanstead last Saturday night with Ryanair - granted it was Easter Saturday - but there were 35 of us on the flight. 35 ffs! My contribution to offset my greenhouse gases just trebled …

Eircel? TSB->Permanent TSB? ACCBank->Rabobank? B+I Line->Irish Ferries?

The moral of the story seems to be that privatisation can work just fine, as long as you’re not simply replacing a public monopoly with a private monopoly…

Aer Lingus thought they could persuade the southern public to fly out of Belfast…

Are ye Jokin?

Deeply ingrained fear and mistrust of de nort’
Noone wants to be stranded in belfast when some sectarian bunfight breaks out…