So the question is, what are the leading indicators that will most usefully signify the pending arrival, and expected arrival date of the Bottom of the Bubble?
I’m guessing at a few here:
Rent per month achievable approaches monthly mortgage cost over 20 years,
Rate of decline in asking prices decreases and stagnates,
Rental yield approaches 7 to 8%,
Its still October 2011 same as every other time this ‘Bottom Question’ is asked
OW and TUG invite all us around for the house warming.
They then implement a moderation policy than outlaws all negative dicussion of property prices. The wheel turns full circle!!!
I’d say dropping daftwatch figures would have something to do with it.
OW is already banned from discussing property in polite company! Does that count???
October 2011 seems too early to me. Values are falling, imo, by approx 10% p.a… This would therefore imply a further 30-35% if we were to reach the bottom by this date. Of course, we could have an acceleration in the rate of decline between now and then. However, for me it it’ll be end 2012/Spring 2013. But who’d bet against 2pack?
Pedantic: I thought the bubble had burst? Therefore it doesn’t have a bottom!
I would think a sustained period of flat prices with not much room for negotiation and an average period of say 6 months to turn a property over. There will also be a palpable air of despondency in the country as I think the bottom of the market will coincide with a very black time in our economy.
The only true indicator of the bottom IMHO will be when prices start to rise slowly over a sustained period, that means we’ve most likely just passed it.
Calling the bottom is a good way to get confused for Dan or Austin.