Instead of us finding our €400m share of a bailout of €40bn it now looks like a €1bn price tag for a bailout of up to €120bn.
Furthermore the IMF will be the senior creditor not us. I can see the IMF and the Greeks being told to think again, this all feels like a bad panEurozone equivalent of the dog days of late september 2008 over in Lennys office
Lenihan will blithely announce the €1bn aid package for fear of what would happen were he not to. I would say the Dept of Finance will brief by 6pm today …expect gnomic utterances in the papers tomorrow. No Dáil speeches or votes, just write the cheque for €1bn and bullshit yoru way out of it tomorrow on Morning Ireland Brian…is that not how NAMAland works ???
Lets pretend Ireland is in pretty good shape financially, we were very conservative with our spending and didn’t get ourselves into a financial mess, now we’re being asked to bail out Greece by donating 1.2Billion, we wouldn’t be happy, 1.2billion is A LOT of money.
Now back to reality, contrast the 1.2 billion with the 75 billion we’re spending on the banks, sure in that case what’s 1.2 billion between friends, sure throw a few more zeros on there, what’s the harm
I don’t think so. My latest estimate is not a conservative €1bn , it is now €1.6-€2bn based on a €120bn price tage to Eurozone members ( not counting IMF funding) over 3 years.
Not committing the funding this week is not an option, the optics would be bad on the bond markets and the CDS markets.
The thing is, does anyone really expect Greece to pay this back?
I am convinced that this is just kicking the can down the road for a few years, by then Greece wont even be able to afford the interest payments never mind paying back the principal. Greece defaults, Drachma comes back, Ireland, Portugal , maybe Spain in dire straits too, the Euro will be gone in 10 years.