Lies, Damned Lies, and Housing Completion Statistics


#21

#22

I was wondering if these reports take into account potential executor sales etc. over the period.

For example, there were 151,684 females over the age of 75 in the 2016 Census which would mean c.15,000 executor homes per annum could potentially be entering the market over the initial 10 year period in their report.

So, if they state we need c.34,000 new homes per annum, does this really mean an additional c.19,000 new built homes required per annum once executor sales are taken into account? Given that we’re currently building c.20,000 per annum, has supply already caught up with demand which would explain the fall in prices?

From the Census figures it also appears that most of the increase in the population between 2006 and 2016 is primarily due to existing people living longer and not due to more younger people living in the country i.e. the demographic responsible for the increase in the population are probably already housed.

The figures in the report also seem optimistic and based upon significant net inward migration which may not be achievable given the upcoming OECD tax changes etc. e.g. are we really going to create enough new jobs per annum that equals several new Googles coming to Ireland every year for the next ten years?