September is peak season for people to start courses and emigrate after graduating. Their seasonal calculations are based on data from past years when things were not as bad. The jobbridge scheme seems to have taken off in the last month as well which is another fix to take people off the live register figures.
Whatever about the 20 somethings having to emigrate it’s extremely sad that people in middle age find the need to uproot.
All this ‘every cloud’ shite is a fucking insult to everyone I know who’s had their lives ruined.
eh… +1?
All these upbeat press releases from The Ministry of On Message!
Are you predicting a surge in supply of rental properties?
I’d tend to assume that as those people have already left, any properties they vacated have probably already hit the market.
No. I’m just making the point that 76,000 is a lot of demand to remove from the housing market in one year, particularly when the vast majority of them were either renting or prospective homeowners. Of course our population is actually still increasing (due to the high birthrate and the reluctance of out elderly to die), but that portion of our population aren’t going to contribute on the demand side any time soon.
In terms of the rental market, obviously as more and more people are removed from the demand side of the equation sooner or later the supply side will be swamped and rents will collapse again.
And the reason I mentioned ‘2 bed apartments’ is because I expect there will likely be a disproportionate impact on this sector of the market. As couples grow out of their 2-bed and decide to start a family, who will fill their place?
dont forget immigration, which makes net emigration about half that number
+1 Pat the Baker and Homeboy.
Could this also be down to people falling off the initial non-means tested benefit eligibility and becoming dependent spouses no longer eligible to be on register? September is the starting time for most college courses too - people going back to education perhaps?
Or has the (paid, mind!) workforce actually increased by 5400? If it has, then great. If not, well there’s not much good news there really Esselte.
Any couples in 2 bed apartments just starting families now probably bought towards the peak/popping of the bubble and are more than likely stuck where they are - whether they’ve grown out of them or not. But this is all off topic surely?
Is the unemployment rate stabilising?
Would you all be happier if unemployment was still going up because it would mean people weren’t emigrating?
The total number at work, the total number unemployed and the total number of students have stabilised over the last number of months.
cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/Gra … Language=0
(only up to Q2 2011, but you can see the stabilisation)
The number of long term unemployed continues to increase.
I think what’s happened is that the rate of new job creation is roughly equal to the rate of job loss + emigration, but people on the register have a hard time getting off and into other things.
Would unemployment fall if unemployment benefit/welfare was cut?
For example in other countries without welfare people do what they have to do
clean windows, clean gutters, domestic servants, cooks
Yes, take Brazil for example with unemployment at 7%. Dole is feck all there so you need to do anything if unemployed.
That system already exists in Ireland. It’s called being ‘self-employed’. If you included the number of people who are ‘self-employed’, but earn less than they would if they were ‘unemployed’, the true level of ‘worklessness’ would be quite stark.
And favella’s. Just what Ireland needs.
It’s not exactly a successful policy in the US right now either.
I think there’s some room for manouevre in the social welfare budget, but cut it too far and I think the result will be encouraging the black economy.
People will do what they need to, to get more money but it won’t result in them taking on real full time jobs, and it won’t result in them signing off the dole.
It’s quite possible you’d end up with a spiral effect, black market + dole people undercutting legitimate companies leading to further redundancies and more people on the dole.
Yes but many of these people ‘doing what they have to do’ turn to gangs and drug dealing. Not sure it’s the answer we’re looking for. If we have to cut social welfare because we can’t afford it then there’s not a whole lot we can do, but the ‘it’d get them off their arses’ attitude is misguided at best.